pcbjr
Member
Pitiful ... in a good way IMHO ...
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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto
- Thread starter GeorgiaGirl
- Start date
On the 12Z EPS run, I counted about 5 actual TCs (10%) that go into the Gulf and about 6 (12%) that either hit or skim somewhere within NC to NE US. I can’t see the N.C.-NE US option now but I won’t yet completely eliminate in my mind the loop to S FL and/or Gulf. Regardless, the overwhelming best chance per the EPS remains OTS.
Henry2326
Member
Actually it was stationary at 2:00 pm. Per the NHC.
Near the Bahamas.....quite uncanny.....
Also, the discussion is quite interesting...,
"In this advisory, the initial position is a point near
the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the
convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt."
I wouldn't say we quite have a handle on this one yet.....that's quite vague...but the cone is pretty.
Near the Bahamas.....quite uncanny.....
Also, the discussion is quite interesting...,
"In this advisory, the initial position is a point near
the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the
convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt."
I wouldn't say we quite have a handle on this one yet.....that's quite vague...but the cone is pretty.
accu35
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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The cone sucks, I need rain lol
Shaggy
Member
Still looks like a couple of spins in there right now. Maybe the gfs is correct in keeping this disorganized?
I just checked a different source, Weathernerds, and it actually shows not just 5 but 7 of the 51 12Z EPS members (14%) with something going into the Gulf from NINE, itself. So, we can't ignore the chance. But still an overwhelming majority recurve safely OTS.
accu35
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- Jan 5, 2017
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If this system stays weak and disorganize, could it push more west? Could we get a track that involves Florida and maybe eastern gulf back in play? I just want rain man, lol. I guess I'm wish casting
pcbjr
Member
Not replying for Larry ...
Short answer is "Yes" it could ...
if it actually ever becomes a system ...
Brent
Member
No more potential cyclone
Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019
An Air Force plane extensively investigated the disturbance near the
Bahamas during the past several hours, and in the last portion of
the mission, the crew was able to locate a center of circulation,
although weak, near the convection. The center was a little bit
to the east of the previous estimates. Satellite images also
indicate that the cloud pattern has become a little better organized
and Dvorak estimates are T2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. On this basis, the disturbance has been classified as
a tropical depression with 25 kt winds.
Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019
An Air Force plane extensively investigated the disturbance near the
Bahamas during the past several hours, and in the last portion of
the mission, the crew was able to locate a center of circulation,
although weak, near the convection. The center was a little bit
to the east of the previous estimates. Satellite images also
indicate that the cloud pattern has become a little better organized
and Dvorak estimates are T2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. On this basis, the disturbance has been classified as
a tropical depression with 25 kt winds.
pcbjr
Member
Brent
Member
Continues to get further away from Florida
Henry2326
Member
Yup....I'm sure more surprises in store. My fear is that it spins up sooner and and doesn't follow the script.....as they usually do.So surprised ... LOL ...
Now a H possibility doing a loopy ...
Henry2326
Member
Uncertainty abounds...
"Due to the reformation of the apparent center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 305
degrees at 7 kt. A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic
is forecast to develop, and this pattern should steer the system
slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an
eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve
away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The track guidance has
shifted to the east again, and this shift is larger due to the
eastward formation of the center. Consequently, the NHC track
forecast was adjusted in that direction, but it remains on the
western edge of the guidance envelope."
"Due to the reformation of the apparent center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 305
degrees at 7 kt. A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic
is forecast to develop, and this pattern should steer the system
slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an
eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve
away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The track guidance has
shifted to the east again, and this shift is larger due to the
eastward formation of the center. Consequently, the NHC track
forecast was adjusted in that direction, but it remains on the
western edge of the guidance envelope."
Accu wishcasting? No way, you never do that.
But it is all good. Yes, the EPS is saying that is an (as of now) low probability option, which I’m sure won’t stop you from now getting excited about it lol. All you want to hear is that Gulf has not been eliminated by the EPS. You should be a very happy man now! JHS
Member
We really need a weak version of this system into SC. Not a drop of rain here today and no sign of any anytime soon. I say we see 90 degree temps into November this year unless a major hurricane can change things.
pcbjr
Member
Keep broadcasting the good news on LWBN (the Larry Weather Broadcast Network) ... nothin' fake there ...