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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

GFS just trucking due east right to Bermuda.....that's actually kind of a odd track at that latitude.....
 
FWIW, CMC is further west. Actually made a landfall in south Florida
 
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If you though you was confused, gfs back over Florida lol
 
From Greg Fishel:

This tropical system won't be as strong as Dorian, but it's forecast track could end up being even more difficult to predict. All indications are that Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will become Tropical Storm Humberto sometime tomorrow. and then be close to the Florida coast over the weekend before grazing the southeast coast of the United States early to mid next week. Now there are two camps with regard to the initial track. The American model and it's ensemble members favor the storm crossing Florida and heading into the Gulf of Mexico, while most of the National Hurricane Center Models as well as the European deterministic model and it's ensemble members point to a track similar to the one described above. In fact, this time the European deterministic model keeps the storm farther off our coast than Dorian was, and then makes a sudden left turn midweek and heads up to the Chesapeake Bay and the mid-Atlantic States! Sounds like the kind of situation that will lead to not only the changing of hair color, but also the diminishing of its density over the next 7 days. I would not be surprised to see Humberto become a hurricane by late In the weekend assuming it does not cross Florida. To say anything beyond that at this time is probably pretty ludicrous, so I will avoid that trap as best I can. More frequent updates tomorrow and over the weekend!
 
0Z Gfs, Legacy, CMC, JMA, and ICON all east of previous runs and increase the chance this stays off FL and never landfalls in the US. At least the trend is there for that to occur. We’ll see.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Trough that's been showing up on a few runs catches it on the Legacy and that's what sends it east like that.
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Sure I get that, its just usually a more NE or ENE type motion, I dont recall many times if any where a storm has gone that far straight east away from the US that far south.....
 
Speaking of this east trend, I just saw the 18Z EPS and its mean is significantly east of the 12Z EPS mean. Let’s see if the 0Z Euro is at least as far east as the 18Z (which I expect) rather than reverting back west.

Anyone see the 0Z UKMET yet? If so, how was it vs the 12Z?
 
Ukie is also turning east sooner and moving well OTS away from the US, though this run of the UKIE has it about to obliterate Bermuda as a 941 cane on the last frame

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Hour 30 of 0Z Euro even further east than the 18Z. Very good chance at staying OTS.
 
Who would have thought all of those early ICON runs with a TC just E of FL and well east of the then model consensus would now have an excellent chance to verify way too far west?! This kind of stuff is so fascinating and makes tracking these enjoyable because they are such a challenge.
 
GaWx said:
Who would have thought all of those early ICON runs with a TC just E of FL and well east of the then model consensus would now have an excellent chance to verify way too far west?! This kind of stuff is so fascinating and makes tracking these enjoyable because they are such a challenge.
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I dunno about enjoyable lol......the question now is how locked in is this trend......seems pretty likely, its pretty much how I bet 90% of these home grown Bahamas systems play out....
 
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