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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

KyloG said:
Fortunate...2 hurricanes, or soon to be, that's tucked in to the SE coast that will miss land. Guess Dorian clipped the OBX, but to miss plowing into SE coast seems fortunate.
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Dorian made landfall in NC and many other areas before and after. And this one could hit Bermuda and already impacting the Bahamas. Plus wouldn’t rule out Canada again. Heck, the state of Maine had Tropical Storm warnings from Dorian.
 
We’re now into the expected near stall period, which will probably continue into the evening. So, he’s pretty much doing as planned. By tonight, we should see some eastward component of motion. Only if we don’t see any by dawn tomorrow would I start getting a bit worried something’s off.
 
12Z Euro 48 is only slightly W of the 3 previous runs. Should still be an easy miss for the US.

Edit: Interesting north movement at hour 120 after raking Bermuda with its right side. A little like the 12Z CMC. Will still miss the US easily.

Edit #2: And now mainly for entertainment: the 12Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) ensembles just like the 0Z run hits the CONUS (FL-NC) with ~10 of the ~21 members. But note that this is quite the inferior ensemble to the GEFS and especially to the EPS. So, there's no reason to buy into its suggestion of "not so fast" with regard to the US. It is doing so because it has an unrealistically stronger ridge to the north vs the GEFS and EPS.
 
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Here we go again. The 12Z Euro ens is back to having more members than the 6Z, which had only 4, threaten or hit the US after stalling. More details from me or whomever as the run goes further. It definitely will have quite a few more hits. Are these just model cartoons (thnks, @GeorgiaGirl for that term) or are these realistic alternative scenarios?
 
We can’t rule anything out at this moment, we all learned from Dorian that even the slightest mistakes in time and location can have very large implications. However, I will admit models have handled Humberto quite well.
 
GaWx said:
We’re now into the expected near stall period, which will probably continue into the evening. So, he’s pretty much doing as planned. By tonight, we should see some eastward component of motion. Only if we don’t see any by dawn tomorrow would I start getting a bit worried something’s off.
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Larry,
Personally have had that worried notion all season ... o_O
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Personally have had that worried notion all season ... o_O
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Hopefully, you're not psychic!

The 12Z Euro ens has ~13 US hits including one skim (~25%) which is almost double the 7 of the 0Z ens and more than triple the 4 of the 6Z. The highest of any Euro ens run so far has been the 12Z of yesterday's ~16 members. So, this 13 isn't far from that.
 
GaWx said:
Hopefully, you're not psychic!

The 12Z Euro ens has ~13 US hits including one skim (~25%) which is almost double the 7 of the 0Z ens and more than triple the 4 of the 6Z.
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if you add an "chotic" at the end, you'd get 110 "Likes" ...
 
Grasping at straws here looking for anything to go wrong. Just relax sheesh.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Grasping at straws here looking for anything to go wrong. Just relax sheesh.
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I'm just messengering what the highest rated ensemble (Euro) says. Also, even when you include the latest GEFS and GEPS, you can plainly see that any member that doesn't reach 70W and especially ones that don't reach 72W by late Wed. is at risk of coming all the way back to the US due to an uncommonly strong and upper ridge over the E US that all models have persistering through Saturday. It is still a low probability since no major operational does it, but not one to ignore just yet, especially with what the 12Z Euro ens just showed.
 
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BirdManDoomW said:
Grasping at straws here looking for anything to go wrong. Just relax sheesh.
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Another comment like that will get you a timeout, nothing wrong with anyone discussing the weather and especially someone who is providing accurate and beneficial information, which by the way it is just that... information.
 
metwannabe said:
Another comment like that will get you a timeout, nothing wrong with anyone discussing the weather and especially someone who is providing accurate and beneficial information, which by the way it is just that... information.
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Good post

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I know it isn't a good model at all, but just to illustrate the above, the 0Z/12Z NAVGEM don't get to 72W by Wed evening and they then both come back to threaten NC. In contrast, the 6Z gets almost to 70W and doesn't come back.

Edit: The 12Z Euro just gets to 70W and even it later takes an abrupt turn to the north. All of the recent GFS and ICONS move past 70W by late Wed and none of them come back at all.
 
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Is it bad that I’m hoping for a cane ? Went to high rock lake and there was a few dead crappie at the bank and low water levels, rain is really needed here
 
metwannabe said:
I'm 99% sure on the ots solution, haven't even really been paying too much attention but another look at the eps and is just enough to say keep one eye open...

View attachment 23598
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I would say the stronger members take it out to sea and based off satellite this storm is intensifying fast. Their is nothing to hinder strengthening.
 
Wouldn’t it be something if it came back and we all thought it was gonna hit...and it came within 50 miles only to miss again...
 
Good news is that the 18Z Euro is well east of that 12Z fun that was well west of the prior runs and was associated with the EPS run with ~13 US hits. I bet this will mean fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS.
 
GaWx said:
Good news is that the 18Z Euro is well east of that 12Z fun that was well west of the prior runs and was associated with the EPS run with ~13 US hits. I bet this will mean fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS.
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Majority safely ots but still throwing some our way too

678b41d55e053115e7cc113ab55e9418.jpg


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metwannabe said:
Majority safely ots but still throwing some our way too

678b41d55e053115e7cc113ab55e9418.jpg


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Yeah a couple still to keep an eye on but the OP runs are unwavering so far. We are not seeing any windshield wiping at all. I think we all know what's gonna happen theres just enough members of the euro ens to keep the fat lady from fully singing......times up soon though and if any wholesale changes are gonna happen it needs to happen soon......it isnt though.
 
IF this eventually misses like the models all suggest that will be 2 canes that got past 75W that end up missing or at least not landfalling on the mainland.
 
metwannabe said:
Majority safely ots but still throwing some our way too

678b41d55e053115e7cc113ab55e9418.jpg


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Yeah, I was wrong with my prediction of fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS vs the 12Z. It actually had the same # of hits, 13 (25%).
 
If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Likewise if a hurricane...well, you get it
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, I was wrong with my prediction of fewer US hits on the 18Z EPS vs the 12Z. It actually had the same # of hits, 13 (25%).
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Not that i expect any surprises but any time these storms slow way down like this I get suspicious and they can sometimes get new modeling ideas. We saw this with florence and Dorian where models changed after they picked up on a slowdown.

Although outside the expected as humberto moves slowly there is a limited window for something to change like the trough moving out faster etc.....I'm not saying it will just slow movers can sometimes see last minute changes to overall pattern thinking.
 
Like the 18Z Euro, the 0Z run is well E of the 12Z. Let’s see if this correlates to fewer 0Z EPS members hitting the US unlike the 18Z EPS.
 
GaWx said:
Like the 18Z Euro, the 0Z run is well E of the 12Z. Let’s see if this correlates to fewer 0Z EPS members hitting the US unlike the 18Z EPS.
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I only saw 1, maybe 2, either way he's heading ots and I think we can say farewell to Humberto
 
metwannabe said:
I only saw 1, maybe 2, either way he's heading ots and I think we can say farewell to Humberto
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There’s one other that loops forever and comes in ridiculously late, which is not believable. So, technically I counted 3. Even that is way less than the 13 (25%) of the prior two runs. I agree that this, along with recent acceleration ENE, is highly encouraging that he’s going to go and stay OTS. Also, as I’ve noted, the looping scenarios that show up as alternatives to the consensus of OTS based on my recollection usually end up not happening though every storm is unique and they can’t be totally discounted at least at first.
 
The 6Z Euro suite is consistent with the idea of the US being safe. The 6Z EPS, like the 0Z, has only a measly 3 of 51 members (6%) with a US hit (2 in SE and 1 in NE). This compares to the 13 hits on the 18Z and 12Z of yesterday.
Assuming no more surprises, this may very well be my last model related post on this storm as regards US threats though I may post about how models look for Bermuda later.
 
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GaWx said:
The 6Z Euro suite is consistent with the idea of the US being safe. The 6Z EPS, like the 0Z, has only a measly 3 of 51 members (6%) with a US hit (2 in SE and 1 in NE). This compares to the 13 hits on the 18Z and 12Z of yesterday.
Assuming no more surprises, this may very well be my last model related post on this storm as regards US threats though I may post about how models look for Bermuda later.
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Really clearing out a eye seems like we might see some decent strengthening today......
 
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