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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

FLASH FLOOD WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 821 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024
TORNADO WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 820 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

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844 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 915 AM EDT.

* AT 844 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR SAINT LUCIE WEST, OR NEAR WHITE CITY, MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.
 
A tick east, but man these corrected hurricane tracks just won't cave even within 24 hours. Wild.
View attachment 151954
They may end up being correct, but where all global models (and even some in house models) con't Helene on a NNE track to landfall, the cane models turn due N on a dime in the GOM. I tend to lean towards globals that handle upper air pattern better but just mho
 
A tick east, but man these corrected hurricane tracks just won't cave even within 24 hours. Wild.
View attachment 151954
With the direction it's moving right now based on recon I'd tend to go more with the spaghetti modeling but I'm not sure why the graphical depictions of each respective model vary so much. Something isn't syncing correctly. Any other site showing the same as TT's output for the hurricane models?
 
What makes you think these are incorrect?
Clearly, the NHC thinks they are correct. But, I've never seen these tropical model plots clustered so tightly in such disagreement with all global models this close to landfall. Even the meso models tropical and non-tropical are generally east of those plots particularly inland.

So IDK, my best guess as a hobbyist is a slightly different interaction with the ULL once inland is the difference in track.
 
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