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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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After the earlier very high gusts 2 hrs ago that took my power, there had not been a repeat of wind gusts nearly that high until ~3AM, when they returned.

Power now is out to over 100K customers in the GA portion of the metro area, easily the worst since Matthew.
 
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EasternNC said:
Interesting. Wonder if NWS will bump up the wind forecast for Central/Eastern NC.
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It would have to keep on that heading and bring the center up over central SC/NC for it to really change things for us....and there is no way they miss it that much. Still I am sure the folks at the NHC are like please please turn north lol....
 
000
WTNT64 KNHC 270704
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
300 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HURRICANE HELENE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH GEORGIA...
...300 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Helene continues to produce hurricane force winds that are moving
further into Georgia. This is an dangerous and life-threatening
situation. Persons should not leave their shelters and remain in
place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions.
When in the eye, people are reminded to not venture out in the
relative calm, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly when
the center passes.

An ASOS station at Alma Bacon County Airport in Georgia recently
reported a wind gust of 91 mph (146 km/h). Another weather station
in Douglas, Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 92 mph
(148 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 83.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 55 MI...115 KM SSE OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven
 
Downeastnc said:
It would have to keep on that heading and bring the center up over central SC/NC for it to really change things for us....and there is no way they miss it that much. Still I am sure the folks at the NHC are like please please turn north lol....
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Right lol.
 
We’re house sitting for my sister in law. I was just out on the roof trying to fix a floppy piece of siding that got blown off and was banging against the side of the house. It’s good for now but it will never hold.
 
Belle Lechat said:
20242710636_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-07-1250x750.jpg


This doesn't do it justice. Go watch the loop. Let's just say it isn't headed for Alabama.

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

GOES-East CONUS - Band 7 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
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According to NHC, she is supposed to be heading to North GA then to Eastern TN lol. Looks like she's aiming for Greenville/Spartanburg then maybe West of Charlotte NC.
 
Still thinking the symptom of their track being to far West was relying on the Super Ensemble and Ships guidance.. they both started shifting East (especially today, faster than their cone).. I didn't look horribly close at things, but I think the Canadian model's ensemble system was skewing the mean to the West Wednesday afternoon.

Combine that with the hurricane models being too far West, and you had a recipe for the error.

There's a good chance a portion of the CoC tracks on the line on the Eastern most of the cone, which technically is still "accurate." Too bad it wouldn't have been without any Eastern shifts of the forecast.

The biggest problem I have with this whole thing is areas that were expecting TS gusts at most are now looking at hurricane force gusts that weren't expecting it. 50,75,150 miles to the East really mucks things up with such an expansive storm with such an expansive wind field.
 
SnowwxAtl said:
I got a feeling she will enter Upstate SC before the turn.
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Agree seems the ULL might not be as strong as modeled also noticed it kind of drifting more SW than S...on the heading it is on now Helene would end up over or even just east of Charlotte which would really change things up for SC/NC....she is also still busting out some big time gust especially on the dry side of the circulation where the dry air helps mixes the big gust down, you will notice the big difference between sustained winds in the 30-40 range but gust to damn near if not 100....

Seeing gust into the 80's around Vidalia now....most of these places are in TS warnings but getting cane force gust
 
Shawn said:
Still thinking the symptom of their track being to far West was relying on the Super Ensemble and Ships guidance.. they both started shifting East (especially today, faster than their cone).. I didn't look horribly close at things, but I think the Canadian model's ensemble system was skewing the mean to the West Wednesday afternoon.

Combine that with the hurricane models being too far West, and you had a recipe for the error.

There's a good chance a portion of the CoC tracks on the line on the Eastern most of the cone, which technically is still "accurate." Too bad it wouldn't have been without any Eastern shifts of the forecast.

The biggest problem I have with this whole thing is areas that were expecting TS gusts at most are now looking at hurricane force gusts that weren't expecting it. 50,75,150 miles to the East really mucks things up with such an expansive storm with such an expansive wind field.
Click to expand...

Also with her getting close to 30 mph even several hrs more NNE will get a lot of places not expecting bigger winds in that part of the circulation....cough Columbia cough....
 
Downeastnc said:
Also with her getting close to 30 mph even several hrs more NNE will get a lot of places not expecting bigger winds in that part of the circulation....cough Columbia cough....
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It's been a bit breezy, but so far so good here. I expect that to change from now until about 7 am though.
 
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