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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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The eye has shifted just ever so slightly NNE from where it was a few moments ago, it's just slightly to the west of Douglas in Coffee County. The Macon/Warner Robins/Dublin corridor looks to have avoided the worst outcome.
 
EastmanGAWX said:
The eye has shifted just ever so slightly NNE from where it was a few moments ago, it's just slightly to the west of Douglas in Coffee County. The Macon/Warner Robins/Dublin corridor looks to have avoided the worst outcome.
Click to expand...
yet TWC just said Macon will get 90+ mph winds lol. We know that's not happening.
 
SOUTHEAST_loop.gif
 
The eye has definitely started more of a northward trajectory, it’s currently sitting right on Highway 441 in Northern Coffee County just south of the Ocmulgee River at Jacksonville, GA. The notion about Atlanta not being affected severely by strong winds from this thing is absolutely going to be correct.
 
253 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
CHARLESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
COLLETON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 330 AM EDT.

* AT 253 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER EDISTO BEACH, MOVING NORTH AT 65 MPH.
 
250 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BUTTS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...
WESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN BARROW COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
EASTERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN FORSYTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
ROCKDALE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...
PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SPALDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHEASTERN TALBOT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...
UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 515 AM EDT.
 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 314 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 312 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 309 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 308 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 302 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 257 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024


Edit, some of these, like

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
NORTH RABON CREEK, ROCKY CREEK, DURBIN CREEK, BIG GARVIN CREEK,
EIGHTEENMILE CREEK, KENNEDY CREEK, BROAD MOUTH CREEK, BIG CREEK,
TRIB TO BIG CREEK, JIMMIES CREEK, RANSON CREEK, CUFFIE CREEK,
BUCKHEAD CREEK, SUGAR CREEK, WILE CREEK, JONES CREEK, LITTLE
GENEROSTEE CREEK, CLEAR CREEK, MARTIN CREEK, SAVANNAH RIVER,
SALUDA RIVER, THEODORE BRANCH, TRIB TO FAIRFOREST CREEK, TRIB TO
HURRICANE CREEK, BIG FERGUSON CREEK, GROVE CREEK, LITTLE CREEK,
TUGALOO CREEK, BIG SHOALLY CREEK, EAST BEARDS CREEK, TRIB TO SOUTH
TYGER RIVER, TRIB TO HUFF CREEK, GILDER CREEK, TRIB TO SALUDA
RIVER, THREE AND TWENTY CREEK, TRIB TO SALUDA RIVER, LITTLE GROVE
CREEK, WELCOME CREEK, BAKER CREEK, HOWARD BRANCH, TRIB TO NORTH
TYGER RIVER, MEADOW CREEK, MINERAL SPRING BRANCH, NORTH TYGER
RIVER, ABNER CREEK, FREY CREEK, BETTY GREEN CREEK, CRAVEN CREEK,
BEAVERDAM CREEK, TYGER RIVER, DILLARD CREEK, GETHSEMANE CREEK,
RABON CREEK, PAYNE BRANCH CREEK, HURRICANE CREEK, BOLING CREEK,
TRIB TO JIMMIES CREEK, LITTLE DURBIN CREEK, TRIB TO PACOLET RIVER,
CANE CREEK, ALLEN CREEK, CANOE CREEK, WHITES BRANCH, CLEVELAND
CREEK, RICHLAND CREEK, TRIB TO LAWSONS FORK CREEK, JOHNSON CREEK,
ISLAND CREEK, TRIB TO 3 & 20 CREEK, THICKETTY CREEK, GEORGES
CREEK, MCELWAIN CREEK, SIX AND TWENTY CREEK, LITTLE BEAVERDAM
CREEK, CANE CREEK, GRAYS CREEK, HEADWATERS OF MOUNTAIN CREEK, TRIB
TO LITTLE RIVER, BRIDGE FORK CREEK, WEEMS CREEK, BRUSHY CREEK,
GRAZE CREEK, DUTCHMAN CREEK, LANGSTON CREEK, CEDAR SHOALS CREEK,
TRIB TO HORSE CREEK, KELSEY CREEK, PICKENS CREEK, LAKE HARTWELL,
TRIB TO TYGER RIVER, TURKEY CREEK, TWOMILE CREEK, DOUBLE BRANCH,
DYE CREEK, FAIRFOREST CREEK, MOTLOW CREEK, MOUNTAIN CREEK,
LAKESIDE BRANCH, NESBIT CREEK, PEA CREEK, LAKE HARTWELL, TRIB
FLOWS INTO LAKE HARTWELL, MAPLE CREEK, BIG BRUSHY CREEK, BROADWAY
CREEK, RUSSELL LAKE, LITTLE GENEROSTEE CREEK HEADWATERS, LITTLE
THICKETTY CREEK, BEAVER CREEK, CHINQUAPIN CREEK, TRIB TO S TYGER
RIVER, WARDS CREEK, GRAYS CREEK, HUFF CREEK, COX CREEK, TOWN
CREEK, LITTLE GARVIN CREEK, PETERS CREEK, HEADWATERS OF GROUCHER
CREEK, HORSEPEN CREEK, SOUTH RABON CREEK, MIDDLE TYGER RIVER, MILL
CREEK, ENOREE CREEK, TRIB TO LAKE HARTWELL, REEDY RIVER, TRIB TO
LAWSONS FORK CREEK, ROCK CREEK, CHARLES CREEK, LONG BRANCH, TRIB
TO SOUTH TYGER RIVER, CAMP CREEK, FAWN BRANCH, HORSE CREEK,
BARKERS CREEK, JORDAN CREEK, TRIB TO ROCKY CREEK, ENOREE RIVER,
LITTLE BRUSHY CREEK, NORTHERN PART LAKE HARTWELL, PACOLET RIVER,
REEDY CREEK, PICKENS CREEK HEADWATERS, LAWSONS FORK CREEK, BIG
GENEROSTEE CREEK, CHEROKEE CREEK, MIDDLE BRANCH BRUSHY CREEK, TRIB
TO LAKE HARTWELL, FROHAWK CREEK, TRIB TO LAKE HARTWELL, TRIB TO
BROADWAY CREEK, LAUREL CREEK, ARNOLD CREEK, EAST PRONG LITTLE
GENEROSTEE CREEK, SMITH CREEK, BENS CREEK, EARLE BRANCH/RISON
CREEK, LITTLE RIVER, HEADWATER OF WILSON CREEK, PART OF LAKE
HARTWELL, WILSON CREEK, TRIB TO BROAD MOUTH CREEK, HENCOOP CREEK,
SOUTH TYGER RIVER, REEDY CREEK, TRIB TO ENOREE RIVER AND ROCKY
RIVER.
 
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Gusting to 100 at Alma Georgia which is north of Waycross on the SE side of the circulation....

Sep 27, 3:07 am787693 SSE51G1003.00Lt rain, MistBKN014 OVC023 28.6828.890.03
Sep 27, 3:05 am797589 SSE55G752.50Rain, MistFEW010 BKN014 OVC023 28.6728.880.03
Sep 27, 3:03 am777696 SSE56G1002.00Rain, MistSCT011 BKN017 OVC023 28.6528.860.03
Sep 27, 3:01 am777696 SSE48G871.75Rain, MistFEW009 BKN013 OVC023 28.6428.850.02
Sep 27, 3:00 am777594 SSE46G631.75Rain, MistBKN013 BKN019 OVC023 28.6428.85
Sep 27, 2:55 am777594 SSE43G701.50Hvy rain, MistSCT010 BKN015 OVC023 28.6228.83
Sep 27, 2:53 am777696 SSE49G911.50Hvy rain, MistSCT010 BKN015 OVC023975.6028.6128.820.63
Sep 27, 2:50 am777594 SSE45G731.75Rain, MistBKN012 BKN019 OVC025 28.6028.810.61
Sep 27, 2:45 am777594 SE44G661.75Hvy rain, MistBKN012 BKN019 OVC027 28.5828.790.57
Sep 27, 2:40 am777594 SE45G841.50Hvy rain, MistSCT010 BKN017 OVC023 28.5928.800.55
Sep 27, 2:35 am777594 SE43G661.25Hvy rain, MistSCT012 BKN017 OVC022 28.5828.790.51
Sep 27, 2:30 am777594 SE43G661.50Hvy rain, Mist, SquallsBKN013 OVC022 28.5628.770.47
Sep 27, 2:26 am777696 SE45G821.75Rain, Mist, SquallsSCT009 OVC016 28.5628.770.43
Sep 27, 2:25 am777594 SE49G671.75Rain, Mist, SquallsFEW009 BKN013 OVC023 28.5628.770.42
Sep 27, 2:23 am777696 SE36G811.75Rain, MistFEW009 BKN013 OVC023 28.5628.770.40
Sep 27, 2:20 am777594 ESE37G601.50Hvy rain, MistBKN015 OVC019 28.5628.770.39
Sep 27, 2:18 am777696 SE41G741.25Hvy rain, MistOVC015 28.5628.770.38
Sep 27, 2:15 am777594 ESE38G601.00Hvy rain, MistSCT013 OVC018 28.5728.780.36
Sep 27, 2:10 am777594 ESE39G690.75Hvy rain, MistSCT013 OVC018 28.5828.790.32
Sep 27, 2:09 am777696 ESE40G860.75Hvy rain, MistFEW010 OVC016 28.5928.800.31
 
319 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
COLLETON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 400 AM EDT.

* AT 319 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FRIPP ISLAND, MOVING NORTH AT 70 MPH.



FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 318 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 316 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 316 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2024
 
After the earlier very high gusts 2 hrs ago that took my power, there had not been a repeat of wind gusts nearly that high until ~3AM, when they returned.

Power now is out to over 100K customers in the GA portion of the metro area, easily the worst since Matthew.
 
EasternNC said:
Interesting. Wonder if NWS will bump up the wind forecast for Central/Eastern NC.
Click to expand...

It would have to keep on that heading and bring the center up over central SC/NC for it to really change things for us....and there is no way they miss it that much. Still I am sure the folks at the NHC are like please please turn north lol....
 
000
WTNT64 KNHC 270704
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
300 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...HURRICANE HELENE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH GEORGIA...
...300 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Helene continues to produce hurricane force winds that are moving
further into Georgia. This is an dangerous and life-threatening
situation. Persons should not leave their shelters and remain in
place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions.
When in the eye, people are reminded to not venture out in the
relative calm, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly when
the center passes.

An ASOS station at Alma Bacon County Airport in Georgia recently
reported a wind gust of 91 mph (146 km/h). Another weather station
in Douglas, Georgia recently reported a wind gust of 92 mph
(148 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 83.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 55 MI...115 KM SSE OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven
 
Downeastnc said:
It would have to keep on that heading and bring the center up over central SC/NC for it to really change things for us....and there is no way they miss it that much. Still I am sure the folks at the NHC are like please please turn north lol....
Click to expand...
Right lol.
 
We’re house sitting for my sister in law. I was just out on the roof trying to fix a floppy piece of siding that got blown off and was banging against the side of the house. It’s good for now but it will never hold.
 
Belle Lechat said:
20242710636_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-07-1250x750.jpg


This doesn't do it justice. Go watch the loop. Let's just say it isn't headed for Alabama.

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

GOES-East CONUS - Band 7 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
According to NHC, she is supposed to be heading to North GA then to Eastern TN lol. Looks like she's aiming for Greenville/Spartanburg then maybe West of Charlotte NC.
 
Still thinking the symptom of their track being to far West was relying on the Super Ensemble and Ships guidance.. they both started shifting East (especially today, faster than their cone).. I didn't look horribly close at things, but I think the Canadian model's ensemble system was skewing the mean to the West Wednesday afternoon.

Combine that with the hurricane models being too far West, and you had a recipe for the error.

There's a good chance a portion of the CoC tracks on the line on the Eastern most of the cone, which technically is still "accurate." Too bad it wouldn't have been without any Eastern shifts of the forecast.

The biggest problem I have with this whole thing is areas that were expecting TS gusts at most are now looking at hurricane force gusts that weren't expecting it. 50,75,150 miles to the East really mucks things up with such an expansive storm with such an expansive wind field.
 
SnowwxAtl said:
I got a feeling she will enter Upstate SC before the turn.
Click to expand...
Agree seems the ULL might not be as strong as modeled also noticed it kind of drifting more SW than S...on the heading it is on now Helene would end up over or even just east of Charlotte which would really change things up for SC/NC....she is also still busting out some big time gust especially on the dry side of the circulation where the dry air helps mixes the big gust down, you will notice the big difference between sustained winds in the 30-40 range but gust to damn near if not 100....

Seeing gust into the 80's around Vidalia now....most of these places are in TS warnings but getting cane force gust
 
Shawn said:
Still thinking the symptom of their track being to far West was relying on the Super Ensemble and Ships guidance.. they both started shifting East (especially today, faster than their cone).. I didn't look horribly close at things, but I think the Canadian model's ensemble system was skewing the mean to the West Wednesday afternoon.

Combine that with the hurricane models being too far West, and you had a recipe for the error.

There's a good chance a portion of the CoC tracks on the line on the Eastern most of the cone, which technically is still "accurate." Too bad it wouldn't have been without any Eastern shifts of the forecast.

The biggest problem I have with this whole thing is areas that were expecting TS gusts at most are now looking at hurricane force gusts that weren't expecting it. 50,75,150 miles to the East really mucks things up with such an expansive storm with such an expansive wind field.
Click to expand...

Also with her getting close to 30 mph even several hrs more NNE will get a lot of places not expecting bigger winds in that part of the circulation....cough Columbia cough....
 
Downeastnc said:
Also with her getting close to 30 mph even several hrs more NNE will get a lot of places not expecting bigger winds in that part of the circulation....cough Columbia cough....
Click to expand...
It's been a bit breezy, but so far so good here. I expect that to change from now until about 7 am though.
 
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