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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Looking over the modeling, the RGEM(12z) and Euro(00z) have already busted on strength. At strongest points, I see the 12z suite have the following:

GFS 938mb
32KM NAM 962mb
12KM NAM: 959mb
3KM NAM: 873mb (WTF)

If we average the 12z NAM suite together, we come up with 931MB. Which isn't far off from the 12z GFS's forecast.... and that includes the ridiculous 3KM NAM's 873MB skewing it.
 
Storm5 said:
4,322 days ...... the streak is about to end


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Click to expand...
A major is a certainty at this point. On the current satellite there's a cluster of convection to the NE of the storm that looks like it's going to get fed back into the circulation throughout the day. When that happens, weeee!

MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL9_storm_info_1280x720.jpg

e4N16k
 
...HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
Brent said:
...HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
Click to expand...
Wow!!
 
Here the Euro, already wrong about the strength. Lets see where he goes
 
000
WTNT44 KNHC 241748
TCDAT4

Hurricane Harvey Special Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1800Z 24.4N 93.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

Full discussion: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/241748.shtml?
 
Guests , take 30 seconds and register. Tomorrow we are turning on the live thread and possible locking the Harvey thread for just members . That decision will be made tomorrow as we see how site traffic is going


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Think about this:

We in the hobby/know woke up suprised this a.m. how well Harvey got his act together etc. But all those people who may watch weather once a day are just now all being alerted as Im sure the local news is in high gear now/today. But by tommorow morning 8 to 900 ishTropical storm force winds will be coming inland. So folks really will only have less than 24 hours to board up/evacuate get out of harms way. Lot of folks getting caught today with their guard down and really not enough time to make preperations for whats coming.
 
FWIW (not much) but the HRRR has been absolutely horrible with the pressure of Harvey today. May want to tuck that back in mind for potential Winter systems later on.
 
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