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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Tarheel1 said:
Maybe it'll RI today and tonight and early tomorrow , then weaken before landfall . The higher the intensity is like cat 3,4 , are harder to maintain themselves, because conditions have to be almost perfect for those strengths to be attained!?
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Harvey has: A strong curculation, little dry air, rapidly falling pressure, warm water, little to no shear form what I know, and tons of moisture. It could be possible, but who knows. I feel like major hurricane predictions bust more on over intensity than under intensity.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
And now east again. Which way will it go? Who knows. If it goes back, here we go again...
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Is that the one near FL!?
I need that west track to reap rewards from recurve! But I will be in Fl over Labor Day weekend! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
Maybe it'll RI today and tonight and early tomorrow , then weaken before landfall . The higher the intensity is like cat 3,4 , are harder to maintain themselves, because conditions have to be almost perfect for those strengths to be attained!?
Click to expand...

Somewhat. The biggest thing in a situation like this is what Webb mentioned, an eyewall replacement cycle. These will occur on hurricanes and the when determines the intensity.

For instance should an ERC happen right before landfall, the storm would weaken slightly until it's complete. However it is at this time where it can suck up dry air and really do a number on the storm. Examples are Ivan, Bret, Katrina, Dennis and so on.

The flip side is this thing completes a ERC say twelve hours before landfall. The new core is strong and doesn't allow dry air penetration and and substantially strengthens. Examples are Andrew, Charley and so on.

The difference between a weakening hurricane and a rapidly strengthening hurricane at landfall is incredible.
 
12z gfs keeps Harvey just onshore by the time it starts drifting NE. Will be interesting to see if that actually happens or if it can get back into the gulf


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000
URNT15 KWBC 241616
NOAA2 1309A HARVEY HDOB 10 20170824
160630 2623N 08952W 4644 06467 0353 -080 -107 157024 025 016 000 00
160700 2622N 08954W 4646 06465 0353 -079 -106 157025 025 016 000 00
160730 2621N 08957W 4646 06466 0353 -082 -107 156025 025 016 000 00
160800 2620N 09000W 4644 06468 0353 -080 -111 157025 025 017 000 00
160830 2619N 09003W 4646 06465 0353 -080 -110 153023 023 017 000 00
160900 2618N 09006W 4648 06464 0353 -079 -106 149022 023 016 000 00
160930 2618N 09008W 4648 06464 0354 -080 -108 148022 023 016 000 00
161000 2617N 09011W 4648 06465 0355 -078 -105 142022 022 017 000 00
161030 2616N 09014W 4648 06465 0356 -079 -104 143022 022 018 000 00
161100 2616N 09017W 4647 06465 0355 -078 -102 143023 024 017 000 00
161130 2615N 09019W 4720 06345 0347 -070 -101 147024 025 017 000 00
161200 2614N 09022W 4863 06111 0333 -055 -090 153024 025 017 000 00
161230 2614N 09024W 5043 05823 0314 -035 -086 146025 026 017 000 00
161300 2613N 09027W 5248 05507 0292 -021 -070 141029 030 017 001 00
161330 2612N 09029W 5476 05166 0269 -008 -057 143033 034 017 001 03
161400 2612N 09032W 5694 04851 0250 +003 -045 143033 034 019 000 03
161430 2611N 09034W 5880 04593 0234 +015 -054 141032 032 020 000 00
161500 2610N 09037W 6078 04327 0219 +032 -047 140032 033 019 000 00
161530 2610N 09039W 6296 04040 0201 +041 -016 139033 033 020 000 03
161600 2609N 09042W 6521 03750 0186 +061 +009 140032 032 021 000 00
 
000
URNT15 KWBC 241626
NOAA2 1309A HARVEY HDOB 11 20170824
161630 2609N 09044W 6733 03487 0170 +079 +022 144030 031 022 000 00
161700 2608N 09047W 6923 03255 0157 +094 +039 142030 030 021 000 00
161730 2607N 09049W 7154 02981 0141 +110 +061 137029 030 023 000 00
161800 2607N 09051W 7409 02685 0124 +131 +066 133028 029 022 000 03
161830 2606N 09054W 7606 02467 0113 +147 +077 133030 030 023 000 00
161900 2606N 09056W 7724 02336 0105 +152 +090 137030 030 022 000 00
161930 2605N 09058W 7907 02133 0095 +164 +106 137030 031 021 000 00
162000 2605N 09100W 7936 02102 0092 +166 +110 136031 031 020 001 00
162030 2604N 09102W 7935 02099 0088 +163 +112 137031 032 020 001 00
162100 2603N 09104W 7919 02118 0090 +160 +117 135031 032 021 000 00
162130 2603N 09107W 7900 02144 0092 +160 +118 134032 032 019 001 00
162200 2602N 09109W 7900 02149 0097 +160 +111 133032 033 021 000 00
162230 2601N 09111W 7931 02114 0096 +160 +110 132032 032 021 000 00
162300 2600N 09113W 7930 02116 0095 +161 +105 130033 034 021 000 00
162330 2559N 09115W 7932 02107 0091 +162 +105 131034 035 022 000 00
162400 2558N 09118W 7944 02101 0094 +163 +112 130034 034 022 000 00
162430 2557N 09120W 7921 02121 0093 +161 +116 127034 035 021 001 03
162500 2555N 09121W 7901 02139 0092 +158 +116 127035 036 022 001 00
162530 2553N 09123W 7915 02126 0091 +158 +118 126036 037 022 000 00
162600 2552N 09125W 7916 02122 0089 +157 +119 128036 036 023 000 00
 
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