Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Brent]

Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the
east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to
spread inland across southeastern North Carolina. The highest
flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer
band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area. However, the
highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land
observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout,
North Carolina. On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have
been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet. All of these data
support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the
higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little
higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.

It should be noted that the ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble still take Florence on a more southern track,
straddling the coast of South Carolina before turning inland.
While that is not shown by the official forecast, it cannot yet be
ruled out as a possibility.

 

[RollTide18]

down to 90 mph, weird

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

The more the storm looks better on radar, the more the winds go down. Weird storm indeed.

 

[DadOfJax]

We may be looking at a TS at landfall...models have been pretty bad all around.

 

[snowlover91]

ICON is bad news for NC. Stalls Florence over land and absolutely DUMPS rain across the whole area.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Might be time to start reclassifying CONUS hurricanes. Most big boys in recent years seem to destroy an island or two in the Caribbean then disappear like a fart in the wind and turn into big rain events in the US. They certainly don’t make US hurricanes like they used to

 

[Brent]

Might be time to start reclassifying CONUS hurricanes. Most big boys in recent years seem to destroy an island or two in the Caribbean then disappear like a fart in the wind and turn into big rain events in the US. They certainly don’t make US hurricanes like they used to

I mean... look at Harvey and Katrina... nobody remembers them for the wind really

 

[Rain Cold]

ICON is bad news for NC. Stalls Florence over land and absolutely DUMPS rain across the whole area.

RGEM is pretty bad too.

 

[snowlover91]

Looking at buoys in the area, water temps are still 82F-83F so plenty of fuel for Florence still. Upwelling is no issue.

 

[deltadog03]

BIG blow up of storms on north Side right now

 

[snowlover91]

Extremely cold cloud tops around the eye.

 

[BHS1975]

Extremely cold cloud tops around the eye.
View attachment 6375

Doesn’t seem to have much effect.


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[SD]

RGEM is pretty bad too.

And that's only through 48 hrs. Throw another 24-36 hrs on that....ouch

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[Brent]

improving satellite appearance but winds have decreased all day

This storm makes no sense

 

[Cary_Snow95]

And that's only through 48 hrs. Throw another 24-36 hrs on that....ouch

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Mesoscale models seem to be picking up on the more expansive rain field. The heavy rain bands directly north look realistic compared to the compact rain fields from earlier runs

 

[deltadog03]

I thought we had recon on the way out, but I haven't seen it update in a while. Hope all is ok.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

0z GFS is a good jump north of 18z. Lines up with the RGEM and ICON

 

[WeatherNC]

Sub 960mb Cat 1 is BS, just my educated opinion. Sig impacts are more correlated to minimum central pressure at this stage of TC maturity versus a ~1 minute sustained.

 

[whatalife]

0z GFS is a good jump north of 18z. Lines up with the RGEM and ICON

Here’s to hoping the Euro and the EPS lose this battle.


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[SD]

Mesoscale models seem to be picking up on the more expansive rain field. The heavy rain bands directly north look realistic compared to the compact rain fields from earlier runs

Yeah you would have to think with a nice east to southeast fetch off the atlantic the precip field to the north would be a little more expensive. What concerns me is how the mesoscale models want to set up 2 or 3 narrow bands of extremely heavy rain that train over the same area for hours.

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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Here’s to hoping the Euro and the EPS lose this battle.


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What's interesting is that the GFS, ICON, RGEM all come north with landfall but still get FLO further SW into SC than their previous run. Something to watch if they're going to the Euro little by little. I'm very interested in the Ukie here shortly.