3k NAM might be a smidge north with landfall
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
33 hours on 12k 0Z NAM has it over Myrtle Beach. 18Z had it offshore south of Holden Beach, NC.
I think she did a mini loop.... Latest HRRR showed this stall and then moving again, with LF around ILM
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
NAM definitely SW from the 18Z run. Can see it really well at hour 36.
About to have a closed eyewall per radar.
3K NAM is North at 33. Edit: And SW at 39.
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Claycochaser
Member
Seeing 110+ in NE quad at 2kft per radar.
Friction from the land really tightening her up.
Friction from the land really tightening her up.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
By 39, its definitely further SW
Round Oak Weather
Member
NAM seems to be further south at 48 ain’t it? I think it made the turn inland before then on the 18z
Claycochaser
Member
Most of these chasers ha e never experienced 100+ mph winds...and certainly not a long duration event. I hope everybody plays it safe.
She should've been named hurricane trochoidal..... I know storms wobble all the time but sure seems more with her, due to collapse of stirring currents I know. But another wobble north..
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
One thing to note, IMO models (esp NAM) don't seem to have a clue in regards to the precip field once this is on land. Normally the NE side of the storm is where the heaviest precip will be. That's not making it to the surface reflection.
Claycochaser
Member
Another big burst of convection now. Man, she is really holding her own. Apparently, these "cooler, shallower" shelf waters aren't as degrading as some thought.
Brent
Member
Guy who wanted me to chase with him is worried hes gonna lose his car to flooding already
I have zero regrets about saying no to this one
Claycochaser
Member
Yeah. I mean Brett and I have chased several and he was in the Bahamas for Irma I believe. But a bunch of these folks have no clue what they are in for. And I can tell you when it really sets in and you get up above even, say, 70mph...at night...you start to feel mighty alone and it gets sketchy real quick.
She looks stationary to me at the 10 PM NHC coordinates about 70 miles E of Wilmington. She’d better get moving especially west overnight like all models have or she’s likely going to be well offshore once the expected steady SW motion starts by Fri night. Even the Euro has her within 10 miles of Wilmington at 8AM tomorrow before any SW motion starts.
She's still moving slightly, per radar currently about 48 miles sse of KMHX radar site and 62 miles east of ILM...
ICON north of ILM for landfall....
Brent
Member
down to 90 mph, weird
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
What's up is down and what's down is up. You haven't learned that about Florence yet? lol It is weird though because the eye itself looks a lot better on radar than it ever has so far this evening.