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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

GaWx said:
12Z Euro: ~50 miles NW of its 0Z location at hour 84 right on the coast rather than offshore. Breathing a little easier for here for now.
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Another 50 mile jog NW on tonight's Euro run and us folks in the Triangle are going to be sweating this one.
 
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png
 
12Z Euro hour 96: Hits CHS from only a barely offshore position (maybe only 10 miles offshore at most) instead of SAV hit from 50 miles offshore like the 0Z had. So, significant N change from 0Z.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Something of note, yesterdays 12z run had a 1006 lp formed just out of the gulf. That system has weakened and just about disappeared on todays run
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I’d be inclined to think that, combined with a slightly different orientation of the OV/NE ridge would allow this broad to drift a bit more north of the previous 0z/12z Kang runs.



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Euro now has it moving along the GA/SC border as a weak hurricane at 108 hours.
 
Euro is the outlier with that track. The other models, UK, GFS, FV3, ICON, CMC are all further north and in good agreement.
 
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