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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

One positive thing! We are learning that the FV3 is actually going to be useful for us! It's been a while since I've been able to look at an American model and think it could really be on to something alongside the Euro. Yeah, the Euro is still better, but it's nice to see this upgrade possibly performing better with something as wonky as this system vs the current GFS.
 
Rain Cold said:
You looking at the right run of the UK? I saw a couple of posts that it went south. I haven't seen it, though.
Click to expand...

Let me restate. I wasn't comparing to prior UKMET runs. I meant the 12 UKMET didn't have nearly the drop in latitude that the recent GFS and Euro runs have had down to latitude of lower SC or northern coast of GA. Of course, the UKMET has been horrible but that's beside the point.
The 12Z UKMET moves only a little SW (down only 0.4 degrees latitude from 34.0 to 33.6N:)

1200UTC 14.09.2018 48 34.0N 78.1W 955 73
0000UTC 15.09.2018 60 33.9N 78.7W 969 65
1200UTC 15.09.2018 72 33.6N 79.3W 976 60
0000UTC 16.09.2018 84 33.6N 79.9W 979 55
 
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Thoughts and prayers in advance to those that live in Eastern NC, especially SE. This is going to be a pretty dangerous storm and I hope it isn't as damaging as it could be.
 
GaWx said:
Let me restate. I wasn't comparing to prior UKMET runs. I meant the 12 UKIMET didn't have nearly the drop in latitude that the recent GFS and Euro runs have had down to latitude of lower SC or northern coast of GA. Of course, the UKMET has been horrible but that's beside the point.
The 12Z UKMET moves only a little SW down only 0.4 degrees latitude from 34.0 to 33.6N:

1200UTC 14.09.2018 48 34.0N 78.1W 955 73
0000UTC 15.09.2018 60 33.9N 78.7W 969 65
1200UTC 15.09.2018 72 33.6N 79.3W 976 60
0000UTC 16.09.2018 84 33.6N 79.9W 979 55
Click to expand...

I guess I’m looking at the wrong run cause whatever run this was was well south of the gfs
0aff358fb02892e828bed6f3f319a177.jpg
75c9f1a3c23ada62a08910e508551414.jpg



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Storm5 said:
I guess I’m looking at the wrong run cause whatever run this was was well south of the gfs
0aff358fb02892e828bed6f3f319a177.jpg
75c9f1a3c23ada62a08910e508551414.jpg
Click to expand...

Charlie,
Something doesn't jibe with your image. Here is the 12Z UKMET:

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 70.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 0 29.4N 70.7W 952 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 12 31.5N 73.2W 949 82
1200UTC 13.09.2018 24 33.1N 75.4W 944 83
0000UTC 14.09.2018 36 33.9N 76.9W 943 85
1200UTC 14.09.2018 48 34.0N 78.1W 955 73
0000UTC 15.09.2018 60 33.9N 78.7W 969 65
1200UTC 15.09.2018 72 33.6N 79.3W 976 60
0000UTC 16.09.2018 84 33.6N 79.9W 979 55
1200UTC 16.09.2018 96 33.9N 81.4W 988 33
0000UTC 17.09.2018 108 35.2N 82.8W 999 27
1200UTC 17.09.2018 120 37.7N 84.1W 1001 18
0000UTC 18.09.2018 132 39.2N 82.7W 1002 24
1200UTC 18.09.2018 144 41.0N 78.8W 1001 27
 
See what the Euro shows shortly but as of now it appears all modeling is zeroing in on Wilmington and actually making landfall



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GaWx said:
Charlie,
Something doesn't jibe with your image. Here is the 12Z UKMET:

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 70.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 0 29.4N 70.7W 952 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 12 31.5N 73.2W 949 82
1200UTC 13.09.2018 24 33.1N 75.4W 944 83
0000UTC 14.09.2018 36 33.9N 76.9W 943 85
1200UTC 14.09.2018 48 34.0N 78.1W 955 73
0000UTC 15.09.2018 60 33.9N 78.7W 969 65
1200UTC 15.09.2018 72 33.6N 79.3W 976 60
0000UTC 16.09.2018 84 33.6N 79.9W 979 55
1200UTC 16.09.2018 96 33.9N 81.4W 988 33
0000UTC 17.09.2018 108 35.2N 82.8W 999 27
1200UTC 17.09.2018 120 37.7N 84.1W 1001 18
0000UTC 18.09.2018 132 39.2N 82.7W 1002 24
1200UTC 18.09.2018 144 41.0N 78.8W 1001 27
Click to expand...

Yeah I must have been on the wrong run


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Both the HMonster and the HWTF models are north with landfall and their eventual track through SE NC and NE SC. They still eventually seem to sink south into mid-SC, but it looks a bit delayed and maybe not as sharp.
 
HWRF has Florence heading south in South Carolina at 63 hours.
HMON has Florence in Georgia very weak at 90 hours.
 
The Canadian is still sticking to it's guns with stalling in southern NC. Would be really bad for the Triangle. Fortunately, it's probably garbage, although, like I always say...the Canadians know ridging in SE Canada eh!
 
So, it is largely now the GFS/Euro (especially Euro/EPS) against the others as far as the chance for CHS south to be very heavily impacted, especially CHS. Personally, I don't recall the last Euro that is this important other than the one from 0Z today.
 
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