Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[WXinCanton]

Has the general idea of the stall then slide south then back west. Pin pointing where this is exactly going to happen is almost impossible IMO.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS has it now moving it along the GA/SC border at 108 hours.

 

[Metwannabe]

Per this run of GFS still gusty well inland

GFS at 60 is a decent bit west and inland from the 6z at 66.

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[WXinCanton]

 

[Storm5]

Inland track on the 12z gfs is definitely SW of 06z . I bet the euro comes north a little from its crazy ass 00z run but still maintains the SW track


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[malak05]

Well the new/improved GFS is now running let's see

 

[Cary_Snow95]

That run of the GFS pushes the heavier rainfall totals back towards Central NC

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The fv3 is north of 6z at 30 hours

 

[packfan98]

The fv3 is north of 6z at 30 hours

What site are you using?

 

[malak05]

The fv3 is north of 6z at 30 hours

FV3 is slightly west of the GFS run

 

[Cary_Snow95]

What site are you using?

TT

 

[Rain Cold]

Notice that after the sink south, this run of the GFS turns northward sharper than the last run. Might be important.

 

[Metwannabe]

Notice that after the sink south, this run of the GFS turns northward sharper than the last run. Might be important.

Could very well be what the NHC was alluding to in their discussion about erosion of the ridge due to the approaching short wave trough.... still a lot to iron out here

 

[Rain Cold]

Anyone heard from the Canadians yet? Looks like the British took the southern route.

 

[Storm5]

Talk about humping the euro

l


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[Metwannabe]

Looks like he has it traveling up the urinary track straight to the kidney

Talk about humping the euro

l


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[Storm5]

Yeah ukmet looks like like the inland track is SW of the GFS. Of course means nothing


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[Metwannabe]

Anyone heard from the Canadians yet? Looks like the British took the southern route.

So the uk went south? Madness....

 

[ForsythSnow]

Talk about humping the euro

l


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He needs to uninstall paint from his computer and make nicer looking maps. He is way off on intensity for sure. No way Florence maintains her strength with that path.

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z GFS tells me to continue to be wary.

The 12Z UKMET isn't buying into the SW move after a stall and it doesn't even stall it much if at all...just a slowdown. Then again, the UKMET consistency has been downright horrible for Flo. So, take it fwiw:


HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 70.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2018 0 29.4N 70.7W 952 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 12 31.5N 73.2W 949 82
1200UTC 13.09.2018 24 33.1N 75.4W 944 83
0000UTC 14.09.2018 36 33.9N 76.9W 943 85
1200UTC 14.09.2018 48 34.0N 78.1W 955 73
0000UTC 15.09.2018 60 33.9N 78.7W 969 65
1200UTC 15.09.2018 72 33.6N 79.3W 976 60
0000UTC 16.09.2018 84 33.6N 79.9W 979 55
1200UTC 16.09.2018 96 33.9N 81.4W 988 33
0000UTC 17.09.2018 108 35.2N 82.8W 999 27
1200UTC 17.09.2018 120 37.7N 84.1W 1001 18
0000UTC 18.09.2018 132 39.2N 82.7W 1002 24
1200UTC 18.09.2018 144 41.0N 78.8W 1001 27