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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Webberweather53 said:
The Fv3 has been better than the GFS but less consistent & still second rate vs the ECMWF on the landfall solution. The Euro caught on and never let go.
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The earliest run of the Euro showing the general upper SC to ILM area as landfall was 00z Friday on the 7th and the FV3 caught on 00z Saturday the 8th. The Euro definitely caught on the earliest and the FV3 caught on pretty soon after. The FV3 runs have ranged from the NC/SC border to MHX since then while the Euro has ranged from Central SC to just northeast of ILM. Overall other than the Euro catching on faster I would say the performance of both has been quite good in picking up on things and landfall has yet to be determined as well. At this point a landfall near ILM looks pretty likely assuming the 12z Euro, FV3 and UK hold.
 
snowlover91 said:
The earliest run of the Euro showing the general upper SC to ILM area as landfall was 00z Friday on the 7th and the FV3 caught on 00z Saturday the 8th. The Euro definitely caught on the earliest and the FV3 caught on pretty soon after. The FV3 runs have ranged from the NC/SC border to MHX since then while the Euro has ranged from Central SC to just northeast of ILM. Overall other than the Euro catching on faster I would say the performance of both has been quite good in picking up on things and landfall has yet to be determined as well. At this point a landfall near ILM looks pretty likely assuming the 12z Euro, FV3 and UK hold.
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I think the landfall will end up a wee bit further south towards Myrtle Beach or so given the ridge is strengthening in the guidance w/ the Euro once again leading the way.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think the landfall will end up a wee bit further south towards Myrtle Beach or so given the ridge is strengthening in the guidance w/ the Euro once again leading the way.
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Spot On. Anyone who denies the euro hasnt led the way since this began and stayed consistent is in denial or wasnt paying attn. The ukmet goes sw into upstate. The hwrf did same thing last night on a run. Hit Wilm to Morhead and went SW to Lumberton where it spun out.
 
How exactly is the invest in the gulf , making the ridging stronger up North?
 
All I know is the most consistent area that has showed up on the model runs for landfall is between Wilmington and Morehead City. I think that's why the NHC has focused on that area.
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 6181
Looks like Christopher is changing his tune! His outlier, just gave him some extra hours of work!:weenie:
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JC was on air with him and shook his head in agreement when he said it. Smh I think it just caught JC off guard. He knows better than to say something like that. Euro has been rock steady
 
1300m said:
How can you say unequivocally that the Euro has led the way since this began when it's track error has been larger than the GFS? No model has been that great.
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Most of the track error occurred when Florence was over the open Atlantic and underwent its first period of RI that played into the GFS/HWRF's poleward biases.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not denying the Fv3 has done way better than the GFS, but the Euro still beat it to the punch by a country mile. As recently as last Friday the Fv3 was OTS still.
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Yeah like I mentioned the FV3 caught on 00z Saturday so it took it a little longer to catch on but otherwise once it did it locked on.
NCSNOW said:
Spot On. Anyone who denies the euro hasnt led the way since this began and stayed consistent is in denial or wasnt paying attn. The ukmet goes sw into upstate. The hwrf did same thing last night on a run. Hit Wilm to Morhead and went SW to Lumberton where it spun out.
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I don't think anyone is denying that the Euro has been very good with this recently. I think it's notable that the FV3 locked on just like the Euro and didn't deviate much either. The Euro did catch on sooner by 00z Friday vs 00z Saturday for the FV3 but other than that the FV3 has been remarkably consistent. This also hasn't made landfall yet so it's premature IMO to call one model or the other a winner. I think the biggest winner here has been the NHC which has stuck to landfall near ILM for days now. They've been doing a great job especially considering the wild swings of the UK and the east GFS/CMC solutions.
 
1300m said:
How can you say unequivocally that the Euro has led the way since this began when it's track error has been larger than the GFS? No model has been that great.
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Because the euro hasnt been scraping hatteras, almost missing and doing merry go round hula loop circles off the outer banks. The 4 to 7 day envelope has been consistent from the euro upper SC coast to Brunswick NewHanover County NC landfall point along with a crawl to stall across NC SC border.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
JC was on air with him and shook his head in agreement when he said it. Smh I think it just caught JC off guard. He knows better than to say something like that. Euro has been rock steady
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Sounds like them talking about a snowstorm! The outlier is always the one showing the most snow!
Anybody thinking this rains itself out over NC, before the west movement starts and we only get an inch or two in the Western Carolinas?
 
NCSNOW said:
Because the euro hasnt been scraping hatteras, almost missing and doing merry go round hula loop circles off the outer banks. The 4 to 7 day envelope has been consistent from the euro upper SC coast to Brunswick NewHanover County NC landfall point along with a crawl to stall across NC SC border.
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The old GFS has been a bit off for sure with it's solutions but since landfall hasn't occurred yet we still can't say it's "wrong" yet until verification time (although it likely is). The FV3 has been remarkably consistent too since 00z Saturday with a Myrtle Beach to MHX zone as potential landfall.
 
The ECMWF completely botched the first RI phase of Florence in the open Atlantic (notice the low intensity bias), this explains most of the track error, since that period, the Euro has been superior & more consistent than the GFS. The error was so large it's still skewing its entire overall skill scores.

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