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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Rain Cold said:
I'm not sure this thing is even going to make it into the Carolinas before it spins way down.
Click to expand...
Let's hope you are correct.... I was thinking if the ots does not occur and we must endure the floods please at least maybe she will stall long enough to weaken considerably before coming inland so some folks will not have to deal with the double disaster.

Btw ICON has her basically over the Pamlico Sound over 48 hours.
 
Substantial SW shift on the GFS through hour 42.
 
Western flank of the Atlantic ridge much stronger, looks like headed right down the NHC track... welcome to the party GFS better late than never I guess
 
Welcome to the consensus party gfs:
gfs_florence.png
 
Not surprising the GFS is way SW, the cloud radiative scheme in the model is primitive & leads to spurious expansion of the wind field leading to excessive beta drift, and it's becoming evident that the EPS/Euro isn't overdoing the ridge (especially over the SE US) given 95L's presence in the Gulf of Mexico.
 
It's notable that the GFS finally caught up with what the Euro and FV3 have been showing for a few days now. The new FV3 certainly seems superior to the old GFS in this regard at least.
 
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