I notice the FV3 does the westward jog right after landfall. Once again 6-12hrs earlier and you change landfall location drastically.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
HMON looks a lot like the FV3
Looks rough on western side
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It seems the theme for today with the models has been moving landfall a little further south to southern NC and northern SC, and then moving WSW inland. Better for inland NC, but worse for inland SC
Which also means parts of GA could get impacted by Florence.
South AL Wx
Member
2 pm intermediate advisory keeps the winds at 130 mph and the pressure at 950 mb, but does say:
...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN SIZE...
...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASING IN SIZE...
snowlover91
Member
Now we just wait for the Euro to see what it shows. I would expect the NHC to adjust their track later today if the Euro/EPS shows a similar track to the 00z run or shifts southwest.
WXinCanton
Member
By the time it gets here its pretty much spun out. Sure we would get some rain, but that's about it. Just curious why would you not share your location?
accu35
Member
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I wouldn't be shocked at all if Flo ends up SC/GA coast when it's all said and done. But that's just my 2 cents
snowlover91
Member
Just something to observe as the new Euro run initializes. 24 hours ago the Euro had Florence here.
Now at verification time she's a little north of that, maybe 30-50 miles north but hard to tell for sure.
Feel free to compare them here on the TT page. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018051600&fh=162
Now at verification time she's a little north of that, maybe 30-50 miles north but hard to tell for sure.
Feel free to compare them here on the TT page. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018051600&fh=162
Pure speculation but I wonder how far inland this holds together if it gets stronger or goes annualar
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Doesn't look like it changed.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
They only update the track on the primary advisories (5 or 11) unless there's a special reason. I think it'll be modified at 5pm if the euro holds serve or is any further SW of the 0z run.
snowlover91
Member
Euro through hour 36 so far.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
snowlover91
Member
Hmm Euro is north and east from yesterday's 12z run but it may not matter depending on how this stalls/turns.
Here is today's run.
Here is today's run.
Go figure the Euro is a little east of it's 0z run...
of course @48 it's slowing and bending back westward
of course @48 it's slowing and bending back westward