Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[South AL Wx]

Looks like the GFS is inland at hour 66:

 

[Rain Cold]

If the stall is any slower to occur than it's showing, there will be some strong winds here.

 

[SD]

Ripping 12z Friday

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[Metwannabe]

CMC following path of the ICON headed to Cape Lookout

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Chris Justice called Euro the outlier last night..never forget

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks like a gentle east breeze

Ripping 12z Friday

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[Metwannabe]

Here comes the stall and the catastrophic floods.....
Also GFS a little quicker, landfall around late Thursday night, also something to watch.... as RC pointed out if the stall is delayed big inland winds

 

[ATLien]

With GFS moving SW, is it reasonable to expect the FV3 to be SW of 6z?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Now that Florence has completed ERC, it's going to start ramping up more. Have to wonder when the next flight in is and if it' this evening, they may find a much stronger storm. Maybe this is where she makes a run for a cat 5.

 

[Webberweather53]

Wilmington is so screwed on this GFS run, the rainfall totals will rival Harvey if it comes to fruition.

 

[Snowfan]

With GFS moving SW, is it reasonable to expect the FV3 to be SW of 6z?

It could.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Now that Florence has completed ERC, it's going to start ramping up more. Have to wonder when the next flight in is and if it' this evening, they may find a much stronger storm. Maybe this is where she makes a run for a cat 5.

Trends SW may get us some rain!

 

[WeatherAddiction]

Models must be picking up on the stronger ridge and the effect of invest 95L

 

[snowlover91]

Classic GFS, about time it caved to what the EPS has been showing for day after day.

And it finally caught up to the FV3 which has also been showing landfall near ILM for days. Kudos to the FV3 for picking up on this, it should be a nice replacement for the current GFS once it goes operational.

 

[Webberweather53]

And it finally caught up to the FV3 which has also been showing landfall near ILM for days. Kudos to the FV3 for picking up on this, it should be a nice replacement for the current GFS once it goes operational.

The Fv3 has been better than the GFS but less consistent & still second rate vs the ECMWF on the landfall solution. The Euro caught on and never let go.

 

[SnowE73]

Wilmington is so screwed on this GFS run, the rainfall totals will rival Harvey if it comes to fruition.

Those poor people in areas like Lumberton and SE North Carolina got so much rain from Matthew a few years ago. It is sad to think about that this might end up being worse unfortunately.

 

[$alt]

UKMET is moorehead city thereabouts and into Eastern NC into KGSP. (post from griteater elsewhere)

 

[Webberweather53]

The Fv3 has been better than the GFS but less consistent & still second rate vs the ECMWF on the landfall solution. The Euro caught on and never let go.

Not denying the Fv3 has done way better than the GFS, but the Euro still beat it to the punch by a country mile. As recently as last Friday the Fv3 was OTS still.



Meanwhile...

 

[Tarheel1]

Ripping 12z Friday

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Your going to need a bigger kite!

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Fear the SW trend? Never thought we’d be saying that around these parts in a million years. Could certainly use some rain, but wouldn’t want to get it this way.