Personally I don't like the looks of that ally way...
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
To piggyback this post when Florence makes landfall there will not be a separate observation thread . It will all be kept in one thread . Due to the historical nature of this storm we felt it’s easier on everyone to keep it all one thread
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Avalanche
Member
Wonder if this annular symmetry has any affect once it gets on land....will the lack of expansive outer banding limit flooding and concentrate it to a smaller radius/area?
It's the NAM and basically this is just bringing it in line with the model consensus and NHC track
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Sure enough NAM is well W/SW of its previous runs. We’ll see if other 0Z suites follow suit.
Do we toss the LR NAM like we do in the winter time? Asking for a friend
Yes. Anything past hour 60 isn’t to be trusted.
I would, however, for comparison sake it does stall Flo just off the OBX....
...FLORENCE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.9°N 62.4°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.9°N 62.4°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
Brent
Member
snowlover91
Member
Only usefulness of the NAM for tropics, especially outside 60 hours, is for any trends. In this case it brings it into better agreement with other models and that’s about all I would take from it.
How is this location, in relation to what models were showing for this time!?
Let's take dead aim at NC
You only trust the NAM when it's the only model that shows what you don't want. For instance all other models show a foot of snow and the NAM shows rain. Trust the NAM or drink the tears of disappointment and anguish.
Kmcdjohnson
Member
I’m in Western Harnett CountyIf you live in this part of NC please message me I need help with something .
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Stormlover
Member
any chance of getting this to automatically update so it's not constant refreshing? not complaining, just asking 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, coming in at Morehead City instead of Wilmington would be better for the Triangle folks. Maybe we can get her to go even farther east.
New NHC track forecast take it from extream Western Wake County on the 5 pm update to Extream Eastern Wake County and over Wake Forest on the 11 pm track update. Also ICON came West 18Z kept it off the coast 00Z shows a landfall near Morehead City.