snowlover91
Member
It also appears that Florence is shedding her banding too.. I really hope she doesn’t go annular as that would be very bad news...
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
It does appear that she could be going in that direction......
Btw, she is not going due west, still gaining some latitude and getting very close to 26N, basically dead on the NHC track... this WNW movement was fully expected.
HiIf you live in this part of NC please message me I need help with something .
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BHS1975
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
This has been right on the NHC track for a while now. Major props to them so far. Unfortunately that means NC is in the cross hairs. People trying to make this harder than it really is. Euro been dialed in for a while now +/- 100 miles
Stormsfury
Member
Key is the 26°N crossing. NHC has it at 63.1°W when Florence reaches 26°N... all in all NHC is much closer than the modeling overall...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I think us NC folks just hope it is wrong.
HWRF has been forecasting Florence to go annual for multiple runs recently as it approaches the coast especially FWIW
snowlover91
Member
If a storm goes annular they can maintain intensity for a long duration and are sometimes not effected as easily by adverse conditions like shear or dry air. An annular hurricane would be even worse due to the large eye, more surge, larger wind field, and being less prone to EWRC and environmental factors that could weaken her.
snowlover91
Member
For reference, here is what the HWRF shows Florence looking like tomorrow. This is textbook annular structure IF it actually verifies.
Check out the ally way for this to go through. Lots of shear looks present to is SW and some clouds pushing in to its NE..
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Looks like a path to the OBX?
I thought it was moving into the perfect environment for this to stay a Cat 4 until almost landfall?
Current** steering
The shear shouldn't' really be that bad to be honest, but you can see the clouds racing and the winds are strong aloft. I don't think it does that much "harm" to Flo though....
Could this cause a further west movement and could have long term effects for South Carolina?
Guys I have created a new thread for banter on the tropical side of things right now. Since we have a historic hurricane threat going on. Please make use of this. This will keep the discussion less clutter and more informative.