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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

cyclogent said:
Tops in the SW portion of the eyewall have warmed rapidly last hour or so and the eye starting to look a bit ragged.
2018254003821_GOES16-ABI-MESO-13-25N-60W-500x500.jpg
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It looks like she is trying to shed her outer rain bands and take on some annular characteristics.
 
snowlover91 said:
EWRC is definitely underway as modeled. Great job on the HMON picking up on this yesterday. The new eye looks MASSIVE but it will likely shrink once it takes over.
View attachment 6142
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While it appears that way, I'm still not sure. Recon data doesn't support any secondary eyewalls as the winds plotted out lack 2 peaks on the sides of each eyewall.
 
ForsythSnow said:
While it appears that way, I'm still not sure. Recon data doesn't support any secondary eyewalls as the winds plotted out lack 2 peaks on the sides of each eyewall.
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Maybe it is in the beginning stages, or it's just going to drop a category again while doing this. I can see very slight double peaks on the map now that the data has refreshed. Regardless, she's definitely going due west again and is going off course further.
recon_AF302-0506A-FLORENCE_timeseries.png
 
Seeing more loopdeloop solutions showing up. Going to be funny if, after days of modeled landfalls, we’re all saved from catastrophe by a storm that loops for days off the coast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
she's definitely going due west again and is going off course further.
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How to say this without coming off like a total arse ... I'll try ...
The steering currents and shear are not being paid enough attention to somewhere ...
She'll turn, but perhaps not as soon or as much as modeled "conventional wisdom" is suggesting ...
A wobble is not a change in direction, but is it a wobble?
All IMHO
And FS, this is not directed at you at all; just using your post as a springboard ...
 
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ForsythSnow said:
While it appears that way, I'm still not sure. Recon data doesn't support any secondary eyewalls as the winds plotted out lack 2 peaks on the sides of each eyewall.
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Yeah it’s still in the early stages so the secondary wind maxima will be very faint. Recon is beginning to pick up on it slightly but it will take more time for it to become apparent. Also it will be harder to track the motion of Florence once the outer eyewall starts taking over as the inner one will start to “bounce around” and make the motion a bit more erratic in the process. I expect the EWRC will take a good while to complete due to the dry air in the area... my guess is sometime tomorrow around lunch or early afternoon but I’ve seen them go quicker too so who knows.
 
This is maddening trying to figure out where this hurricane is going.
 
Arcc said:
Or as it heads for Shane it loops and heads for Phil.
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Not gonna happen ... ;)
... but with 1000 miles of water to cross, and with some variables still unsettled, I'd humbly suggest that Larry might see some wind ...
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah it’s still in the early stages so the secondary wind maxima will be very faint. Recon is beginning to pick up on it slightly but it will take more time for it to become apparent. Also it will be harder to track the motion of Florence once the outer eyewall starts taking over as the inner one will start to “bounce around” and make the motion a bit more erratic in the process. I expect the EWRC will take a good while to complete due to the dry air in the area... my guess is sometime tomorrow around lunch or early afternoon but I’ve seen them go quicker too so who knows.
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The interesting thing is from a PDF I read years ago on annular hurricanes, a good dose of dry air was common in the creation of them.
 
pcbjr said:
How to say this without coming off like a total arse ... I'll try ...
The steering currents and shear are not being paid enough attention to somewhere ...
She'll turn, but perhaps not as soon or as much as modeled "conventional wisdom" is suggesting ...
A wobble is not a change in direction, but is it a wobble?
All IMHO
And FS, this is not directed at you at all; just using your post as a springboard ...
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Will what is in the Caribbean have any effect?
 
Arcc said:
The interesting thing is from a PDF I read years ago on annular hurricanes, a good dose of dry air was common in the creation of them.
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Yeah dry air and marginal SST’s seem to be the common denominator for the formation of them... Not sure if we will get that here or not but the HWRF depiction sure looks like an annular cane after this EWRC completes. We should know more tomorrow. The latest recon pass seems to indicate the pressure has risen a bit which further indicates the EWRC process is underway.
 
Rosie said:
Will what is in the Caribbean have any effect?
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Good possibility, see below from NHC 5 pm discussion...

There is a new player in the forecast as
well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding
some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United
States. Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has
increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall. The
official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is
west of the model consensus.
 
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