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Tropical Major Hurricane Erin

I don't know why any met would have said Erin is going out to sea already. These things don't act like they used to. Look at how fast it went from a tropical storm to a cat 5 hurricane. And we have seen the models have not done well this far out and there can be big changes from one day to the next with the track the closer it gets to land.
 
Carolina Fever said:
I don't know why any met would have said Erin is going out to sea already. These things don't act like they used to. Look at how fast it went from a tropical storm to a cat 5 hurricane. And we have seen the models have not done well this far out and there can be big changes from one day to the next with the track the closer it gets to land.
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🤷‍♂️
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Man. This is some high end stuff. CDO is cooling again. Looks like we’re strengthening again and we should have a plane in there this evening
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Henry2326 said:
OMG.....it's south of the outlier as well as all the rest.
I've been thinking all day that this strength has to have an impact.
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Doesn't mean that at all. It's just something to watch and to see if the models adjust any more west based on today's movement when that gets ingested over the next couple of runs.

Her exit pathway still exists
 
Shaggy said:
Doesn't mean that at all. It's just something to watch and to see if the models adjust any more west based on today's movement when that gets ingested over the next couple of runs.

Her exit pathway still exists
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Frankly, I don't care about the models anymore. They are playing catch-up up in my opinion. I'm watching real time effects to see what she does. The models are fantasy land anyway.
IMO.....That strength will have some kind of impact. I don't know what it is yet, but its gonna be something.

It's still running due west straight down 20N almost to 64W.
Way past where 8/7 AI had it hitting OBX with pressure 951 and a starting point of 19.8. 61.5.
 
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5pm NHC...

"However, there remains a significant spread in the guidance in just
when this turn will occur, and the spread has increased due to the
12Z ECMWF forecast shifting to the west. Overall, the guidance
envelope has shifted to the left during the entire forecast track,
and the new forecast track is also shifted to the west. The new
track is still to the east of the consensus models during the
northward motion, and additional track adjustments may be necessary In later forecasts."

Apparently they too think this strength is gonna do something, but don't know what it is.

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NoSnowATL said:
Still OTS boys, might be a little closer to the coast but weather says she is turning NW . Maybe the next one will destroy your house. I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
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I don't think it's a desire for the storm to turn west. My focus is millions of people should have enough time to get out of harms way. That didn't happen with Helene, for example. Now with an ots message, they are focused on other things. With the millions of people who live on the coast, 24 hours is not near enough time to move people out of the way.
 
Definitely weaker whether it makes another run at some crazy intensity remains to be seen

Yes it could happen but sometimes it does not

Recent data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near
150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts.
 
Brent said:
Definitely weaker whether it makes another run at some crazy intensity remains to be seen

Yes it could happen but sometimes it does not

Recent data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near
150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts.
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8pm confirmed center located 20N 64.6W moving West at 15 mph.
 
5am NHC.......DUH.....no kiddin


The quick weakening over the past 6 to 12 hours is associated with
Erin's structural changes and not environmental conditions. Since
the large-scale environment is expected to be favorable for about
another day, re-strengthening is possible during that time period.

However, it should be noted that predicting the intensity evolution
from internal dynamics are challenging, and models often provide
little reliability in their solutions.

Given the track adjustments and increasing size, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Bahamas.
 
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The ONLY model that approaches 75W is ICON. It has thrown this same general path and intensity for about 3 days now, maybe a little longer.
915 off coast of NC.
It shifted west from 00z to 06z.
Would be brutal to OBX but lucky not a direct hit.

For the record, I'm jaded with models. Just showing what it says. Doesn't mean I agree with it.

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