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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

GaWx said:
Models are pretty much unanimous on a track toward western LA and then moving NNE from there for a good 200 miles or so. Rarely does such model agreement occur.

Based on analogs and what the storm is now doing, I'm quite concerned that there will be a cat 3 H hit on LA despite the cooler shelf waters.
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81 F still plenty warm.


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Based on analogs, how healthy the storm appears, and the near ideal conditions projected for the next 36 hours, I'm growing more and more concerned that there will be a cat 4 offshore and a subsequent 950-955ish mb cat 3 landfall on LA despite the cooler shelf waters.

Here are the analogs that are mainly from the same time of year (early Oct thus meaning very likely similarly cooler shelf waters) and mainly peaked in the N Gulf as a cat 4 in some cases after rapid intensification. In 4 of the 6 cases, landfall was in LA. In all but one case, ENSO is similar to today's. In 4 of the 6 cases, it had crossed or was just offshore the Yucatan:

1. Opal of 1995: in early Oct and came off Yucatan. It went from a TS to a 916 mb cat 4 in the N Gulf within only 48 hours! It then weakened but still landfalled as a cat 3 in the FL Panhandle.

2. Carmen of 1974: Only one not in Oct. Like Delta, it was very powerful before major weakening on the Yucatan as it weakened to only a TS. But soon after, he went from a TS to cat 4 H within only 48 hours just S of LA with SLP down into the 930s! He then turned left/weakened slightly and landfalled in LA as a cat 3 I think.

3. Hilda of 1964: in early October in the C GOM south of LA went from a TS to a cat 4 941 mb H (150 mph winds) within only a 36 hour period. She made landfall in LA as a cat 3 with 950 mb SLP.

4. 1893 storm #10: Even though it was early Oct., it rapidly strengthened into a 948 mb cat 4 in the shelf waters just off SE LA and it made landfall in SE LA as a cat 4.

5. 1886 storm #10: after crossing the corner of the Yucatan, it at about the same time in Oct became a cat 3 only within 100 miles offshore LA and made landfall in W LA with ~120 mph winds. Lowest pressure was 955 mb, which I assume was onshore.

6. 1877 storm # 4: only one with different ENSO (El Nino). After the center barely missed the Yucatan, it strengthened into a 960 mb cat 3 just offshore Apalachicola on October 2 and then came ashore as a cat 3.
 
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Back to Cat 2

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected
to become a major hurricane again by tonight or early Friday.
 
Arcc said:
Definitely looks like a strengthening phase is beginning with strong convective banding around the center.
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Agreed. Also looks like (see what next data set from recon shows) but a nice jog northward as well
 
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