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Tropical MAJOR Hurricane Beryl 2024

12Z Euro:
1) slightly further S than prior 3 runs at Jamaica with it barely offshore, which would normally be a terrible track for Jamaica

2) crosses Yucatan just N of Belize border, which is slightly S of 6Z/0Z runs

3) landfalls just N of Tampico, which is similar to 0Z
 
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12Z main models summary:

A) main/least inaccurate globals:

1) Euro and UKMET very similar in the vicinity of Tampico on S end

2) ICON TX/LA border on N end

3) in between are CMC halfway between Tampico and the TX border and the GFS at MX/TX border


B) hurricane models: mainly more or less halfway between Tampico and TX border
 
NHC came around to major on Jamiaca as HWRF has been predicting. 12z HWRF is 939 approaching Jamiaca, 966 at Cayman, and 954 in the middle of the gulf. It hits the peninsula at 946, gets knocked back to 973, but picks up its boots and keeps on going.

Goodness.....

hwrf_mslp_wind_02L_fh30-30.gif

hwrf_mslp_wind_02L_fh48-48.gif

hwrf_mslp_wind_02L_fh126-126.gif
 
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The ICON has some company at 12Z as the JMA (I know, not at all one of the better models) has Beryl hit Galveston. (See image below) Also, the NAVGEM (I know it is probably an even worse model in general) has a hit at mid-TX coast. So, both of these very much in the fwiw category.

12Z JMA:
IMG_9864.png
 
Henry2326 said:
Interesting turn toward TX that wasn't there yesterday.....

View attachment 148275View attachment 148276
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Henry,
Thanks for your post. FYI, the latest UKMET (12Z) (blue line) has actually shifted S to near Tampico. Your map shows the 0Z UKMET. I know your map says 12Z, but those aren’t actually all 12Z runs. This causes confusion all of the time and thus I don’t know why they’re labeled this way.
 
GaWx said:
The ICON has some company at 12Z as the JMA (I know, not at all one of the better models) has Beryl hit Galveston. (See image below) Also, the NAVGEM (I know it is probably an even worse model in general) has a hit at mid-TX coast. So, both of these very much in the fwiw category.

12Z JMA:
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And NHC basically says "we don't know yet".... 😉

"The intensity forecast also remains uncertain. There is general
agreement in the guidance that Beryl should weaken due to westerly
shear and possible land interaction as it approaches Jamaica.
However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks
somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the
hurricane. The new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a
major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane
when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and this portion of the
forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. There
is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long
the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in
how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the
west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the
spread-out intensity guidance."
 
GaWx said:
Henry,
Thanks for your post. FYI, the latest UKMET (12Z) (blue line) has actually shifted S to near Tampico. Your map shows the 0Z UKMET. I know your map says 12Z, but those aren’t actually all 12Z runs. This causes confusion all of the time and thus I don’t know why they’re labeled this way.
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Thanks - the map is on tropical tidbits....good to know that it lags.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Alot stronger than the depression at best it was showing at 06z

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2:00 NHC discussion - They don't believe any of the operational models for intensity. That puts the placement in the models suspect too since a stronger cane acts different than a weak one....and why right now I'm watching the HWRF. It's the only one that has performed with any degree of accuracy with this storm.

NHC -"However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the hurricane."
 
5PM NHC:

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

...EYE OF BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day
or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and
the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is
expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane
in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).
 
Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since
the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z. While
the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged
and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the
overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear.
Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has
weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity
will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft
missions near 00Z.

The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman
Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
around 60-72 h. After that, there remains a significant spread in
the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and
location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern
United States. The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this
time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion.
This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the
consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty.

The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain. The models
are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the
next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models
show a slower rate of weakening than previously. Based on this,
the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major
hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane
strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a
hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the
forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There
remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better
agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the
Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle
of the spread-out intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 70.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
 
abizzle said:
Gonna be a late evening. Been lurking here for years and I have to thank y'all for helping me learn about canes. I moved from N. Louisiana to S. Louisiana in 2000 and became fascinated by canes in 2002 after Isidore and Lili came through within a week of each other. Now here I am 21 years later and I'm worried for my friends in Grenada.

I was in Grenada for 22 days this past Feb. and March for work. I met some great people and became good friends with several of them. The resort I worked at, which just opened in April, is probably going to be submerged. It's on the SE side of the island in La Sagesse Bay. I'm hoping for a best case scenario where the eye passes between Grenada and Carriacou. That would give them 110mph winds from the South about 12:00PM AST.

They will get a good punch, but it's better than a direct hit.
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I heard from one of my friends on the main island of Grenada. He said it was not as bad as Ivan for them, but obviously Carriacou and Petit Martinique are devestated, dare I say... uninhabitable. The lightning in the eyewall as it engulfed the entire island was hard to watch.

I don't want to stir up emotions or anything, but we will hear talk of the industrialized nations being responsible for this destruction. I take a rational approach to the question of is this related to climate change. It is in a sense that the climate is always changing, but not in a sense of man-made climate change. Records are broken every year. If conditions are favorable, does it really matter that it was July 1st? Like the Earth and weather systems are on the human time schedule or something. Storms pass through the Lesser Antilles every year; some at higher latitudes and some at lower latitudes. Anyone living in the area will always be at risk. It's almost like living in a swamp and complaining because your house flooded, or living in a desert and complaining of drought.

Has anyone looked at a TCHP map today? You may notice the significant cooling of the waters in Beryl's path. I'd say the hurricane worked as designed.
 
THE HWRF HAS BEEN PRETTY SPOT ON THE PAST FEW YEARS AS FAR AS STRENGTH AND TRACKS. I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE DOWN PLAY IT BECAUSE ITS NOT THE GFS OR EURO AND IVE TALKED TO A FEW METS THAT SAY THEY DONT DOWNPLAY IT BUT A MAJORITY OF THEM DO
 
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