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Tropical MAJOR Hurricane Beryl 2024

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Henry2326 said:
2005 consisted of 15 hurricanes of which eight became major hurricanes with four of those reaching category 5 status. It was the first time a season had exceed 21 named storms with a record 28 tropical cyclones named in a season since 1933. With 15 hurricanes this also set a record, beating out the old record of 12 from the 1969 season.
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How could anyone forget that year? As bad as Katrina was, we know the real catastrophe was the levee failure. Actually, Rita was stronger for us in Baton Rouge than Katrina, as we were on the East side. Even with all of that, the image of Wilma hitting Cozumel was sobering. She had that pinhole eye with gusts of 200mph.
 
1) Jamaica H landfalls since 1950, the first two of which were very bad major H hits from the E

1951: Charlie (E to W)(MH)

1988: Gilbert (E to W)(MH)

2012: Sandy (S to N on E end)


2) Jamaica H close misses since 1950: Ivan and Dean very bad hits just to the S

1950: King (W)

1964: Cleo (N)

1974: Carmen (S)

1980: Allen (N)

2001: Iris (S)

2004: Charley (S) and Ivan (S)(very bad hit)

2005: Dennis (NE)

2007: Dean (S)(very bad hit)
 
0Z UKMET: big changes as it now skirts S coast of Jamaica, about worst possible track for them and would easily be worst hit there since Dean of 2007. Also, now crosses NE Yucatan on way to a central TX landfall with it restrengthening on way to TX. Prior runs landfall way down at Tampico! Ignore the winds (too low) and pressures (too high):

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.07.2024

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.07.2024 0 13.6N 63.8W 965 95
1200UTC 02.07.2024 12 15.2N 67.7W 977 78
0000UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.3N 71.6W 985 69
1200UTC 03.07.2024 36 17.0N 75.3W 995 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.2N 78.8W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 60 19.2N 82.7W 1002 42
0000UTC 05.07.2024 72 20.0N 86.0W 1002 40
1200UTC 05.07.2024 84 21.3N 89.0W 1005 39
0000UTC 06.07.2024 96 22.2N 91.6W 1003 35
1200UTC 06.07.2024 108 24.2N 93.8W 1002 38
0000UTC 07.07.2024 120 25.5N 95.6W 998 36
1200UTC 07.07.2024 132 26.3N 96.5W 994 49
0000UTC 08.07.2024 144 27.2N 97.0W 994 51
1200UTC 08.07.2024 156 28.9N 97.3W 995 38
0000UTC 09.07.2024 168 29.7N 98.3W 998 30
 
Check out the map at the top of page 8. Filled in red. EDIT: The map disappeared.

Also, since I'm posting, the last recon stopped transmitting peak 10-second average surface wind speed and rain rate since 00:59 UTC/7:59 CDT until the end of the mission at 06:01 UTC/1:01 CDT. Prior to the stop the average surface wind speed was 000, so I presume some equipment got damaged entering the eyewall.
 
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