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Pattern Magnificent March

Occasional Flakeage in Winston Salem.
:weenie:
 
12z GFS and 12Z Can to go along with 12z Nam from Jon above.
 

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NCSNOW said:
12z GFS and 12Z Can to go along with 12z Nam from Jon above.
Click to expand...
12Z Euro is way South like the UKMET. Always hard to beat the Euro/UKMET combo. Will definitely be interesting to see how this one turns out.
 
OTD in 1932 following what is still the warmest winter on record in most of the SE US, Ohio/TN Valley, and Mid-Atlantic, the 2nd of 3 storms produced snowfall in central NC. RDU observed snow on 3 separate occasions in March 1932, 2 of those times resulted in accumulating snow. The ground temps were undoubtedly an issue in these cases especially following a winter like that.
March 6-7 1932 NC Snowmap.png
March 8-10 1932 NC Snowmap.png
March 12-14 1932 NC Snowmap.png

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Anyone Have the 12z euro maps? My subscription ran out yesterday but I may need to re up if things continue to trend better. I'm sitting at 39 degrees as of 1:50 pm. Also got some Fluries around midnight last night and woke up to a minor dusting that quickly melted after sunrise.
 
olhausen said:
Anyone Have the 12z euro maps? My subscription ran out yesterday but I may need to re up if things continue to trend better. I'm sitting at 39 degrees as of 1:50 pm. Also got some Fluries around midnight last night and woke up to a minor dusting that quickly melted after sunrise.
Click to expand...

The 12z Euro suite followed suit of other NWP models and has squashed our storm well to the south, may not be bad news as long as it doesn't become suppressed any further for south-central VA and NC but mid-Atlantic weenies will likely commence their canonical cliff jumping
Screen Shot 2018-03-08 at 3.09.51 PM.png
 
Just for entertainment:
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
If you're not a fan of severe weather, it's certainly not good to see this going into the meat of the severe season. Extreme-exceptional drought over the southwestern US and south-central high plains immediately adjacent to above-well above normal precipitation in the mid MS Valley will almost certainly provide a huge boost to the elevated mixed layer (mid-level capping inversion) & will increase potential instability. The Gulf of Mexico is also proverbially on fire which further solidifies low-level thermal and moisture advection underneath this presumed stronger EML & will boost CAPE (convective available potential energy) to go along w/ what would be more CIN (convective inhibition) if the capping inversion is more intense. This is a rare large-scale recipe that can support a huge tornado outbreak somewhere in the south-central plains, Dixie Alley, and the rest of the SE US thru April if the opportunity presents itself. We have a few priming ingredients at our disposal that are rarely observed in this part of the world and all that's missing is a triggering mechanism.

Screen Shot 2018-03-08 at 3.23.34 PM.png
March 08, 2018 90-Day Departure Precipitation.png
cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png
 
Gainesville --
This Afternoon
Sunny, with a high near 63. West wind around 13 mph.
Tonight
Widespread frost after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Friday
Widespread frost before 9am.

;):p:D:cool:

Sorry ... just a bit ecstatic ...
 
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pcbjr said:
Gainesville --
This Afternoon
Sunny, with a high near 63. West wind around 13 mph.
Tonight
Widespread frost after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Friday
Widespread frost before 9am.

;):p:D:cool:

Sorry ... just a bit ecstatic ...
Click to expand...
Don't you wish you could bottle up today and save it for a hot July or August day ?
 
The high here of only 59, which was the coldest since 2/3, is at the coldest normal high for midwinter. The low of 33 was the coldest since 1/31 and is near the coldest normal low in midwinter in Atlanta! So, we basically had a midwinter type of day on 3/8! I'm about to take a very enjoyable walk.
 
Storm5 said:
As a two week upcoming DC transplant I’ll take the 18z gfs and cash out
a34b423d378e5e81728a62e3a1a4380d.jpg



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I'll take it also storm! Good lord it would be nice to get a good thumping of snow in march like this map shows. Give me a few more runs like this and have the euro jump on board and I may just get excited.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Good. I'd like to make it through March without major severe weather over here. I also don't want any near 80 degree days like we came close to in February.
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Yeah I mean it’s a fluctuating pattern obviously as we head into spring but the this weekly run shows many cool downs and no real sustained warm/ Hot periods . Would be nice to have a below normal March and April


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Storm5 said:
Yeah I mean it’s a fluctuating pattern obviously as we head into spring but the this weekly run shows many cool downs and no real sustained warm/ Hot periods . Would be nice to have a below normal March and April


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Click to expand...
I would much rather have a below normal June-August than a below normal March and April.
 
Any bloom that’s out there tonight will be dead or severely damaged in the morning here in the upstate. We go below freezing at 1am, bottom out at 28, and don’t get above freezing again until after 8am
 
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