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Pattern Magnificent March

cd2play said:
The base of the trough is too far east.
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Don’t worry, the pattern is retrograding west! 3-4 days later , winter will be back in full swing right over us! Low 60s for highs and 40s for lows !! Brrrrrrr!:D
 
Tarheel1 said:
Don’t worry, the pattern is retrograding west! 3-4 days later , winter will be back in full swing right over us! Low 60s for highs and 40s for lows !! Brrrrrrr!:D
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We'll get a cold snap or two, along with one of those quarter to half inch miniature paste bombs.
 
Both the GFS & ECMWF agree that this North Atlantic blocking high will be a record breaker for this time of the year by day 5-6 as it approaches the Baffin Bay and eastern Canada. Not a whole lot more you can ask for out of the North Atlantic. If it wasn't blatantly obvious already, this should clear up any confusion that this isn't your run-of-the-mill "west based" negative NAO

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Webberweather53 said:
Both the GFS & ECMWF agree that this North Atlantic blocking high will be a record breaker for this time of the year by day 5-6 as it approaches the Baffin Bay and eastern Canada. Not a whole lot more you can ask for out of the North Atlantic. If it wasn't blatantly obvious already, this should clear up any confusion that this isn't your run-of-the-mill "west based" negative NAO

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Still kinda makes you wonder what good is it gonna do. But it is impressive to say the least. It may be too little too late though. A brief cool down is about as much we can ask for. Till next year.
 
Clayton said:
Still kinda makes you wonder what good is it gonna do. But it is impressive to say the least. It may be too little too late though. A brief cool down is about as much we can ask for. Till next year.
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Precisely ... ;)
Blocking Pac air or modified Canadian ... :confused:
 
Clayton said:
Exactly. I don't see anything worth while in this pattern. The record breaking NAO is basically worthless at this point except for New England and maybe Mid-Atlantic. Otherwise, it's a waste.
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The upside is, it's weather and it's unique ... beyond that ... o_O
Except, we should get some slightly BN temps for a few days ... Take what you can get, I suppose ... :cool:
 
Clayton said:
Still kinda makes you wonder what good is it gonna do. But it is impressive to say the least. It may be too little too late though. A brief cool down is about as much we can ask for. Till next year.
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Clayton said:
Exactly. I don't see anything worth while in this pattern. The record breaking NAO is basically worthless at this point except for New England and maybe Mid-Atlantic. Otherwise, it's a waste.
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We honestly don't know how worthwhile this pattern is in terms of winter weather at least in areas that still have okay-ish climo thru mid-March (referring to the I-40 corridor/Apps and points north). A pattern like this gives you about the only snowball's chance in hell you can ask for at this time of the year in the upper south (TN/NC and/or the I-40 corridor & points north) to pull out a last second Miller-A miracle at the end of our legitimate climatological period, I would tend to concur that towards I-20 it's becoming a lost cause no matter what you do. We'll definitely be much cooler by later this week once our next s/w digs off the eastern seaboard underneath this monster blocking high and should see temps end up within striking distance of January climo. What happens after that I really don't know but the overall pattern progression (big east coast cyclones usually occur at the tail end of these beastly -NAO regimes for ex), external forcing, & history would favor another cyclonic wave break near the eastern seaboard sometime in the early-middle portions of the 2nd week of March. The overall pattern looks good enough to keep me mildly interested for the time being here in NC but that will almost certainly change before long.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We honestly don't know how worthwhile this pattern is in terms of winter weather at least in areas that still have okay-ish climo thru mid-March (referring to the I-40 corridor/Apps and points north). A pattern like this gives you about the only snowball's chance in hell you can ask for at this time of the year in the upper south (TN/NC and/or the I-40 corridor & points north) to pull out a last second Miller-A miracle at the end of our legitimate climatological period, I would tend to concur that towards I-20 it's becoming a lost cause no matter what you do. We'll definitely be much cooler by later this week once our next s/w digs off the eastern seaboard underneath this monster blocking high and should see temps end up within striking distance of January climo. What happens after that I really don't know but the overall pattern progression, external forcing, & history would favor another cyclonic wave break near the eastern seaboard sometime in the early-middle portions of the 2nd week of March.
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Webb,
You took all my muddled thoughts and so succinctly articulated them.
Kudos!
Great post!
Best,
Phil
 
Loving all of this blocking! Locking these record highs in place! Hopefully we can hit 90 before Februry comes to a close :(
 
Webberweather53 said:
We honestly don't know how worthwhile this pattern is in terms of winter weather at least in areas that still have okay-ish climo thru mid-March (referring to the I-40 corridor/Apps and points north). A pattern like this gives you about the only snowball's chance in hell you can ask for at this time of the year in the upper south (TN/NC and/or the I-40 corridor & points north) to pull out a last second Miller-A miracle at the end of our legitimate climatological period, I would tend to concur that towards I-20 it's becoming a lost cause no matter what you do. We'll definitely be much cooler by later this week once our next s/w digs off the eastern seaboard underneath this monster blocking high and should see temps end up within striking distance of January climo. What happens after that I really don't know but the overall pattern progression (big east coast cyclones usually occur at the tail end of these beastly -NAO regimes for ex), external forcing, & history would favor another cyclonic wave break near the eastern seaboard sometime in the early-middle portions of the 2nd week of March. The overall pattern looks good enough to keep me mildly interested for the time being here in NC but that will almost certainly change before long.
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Yeah, I mean I can agree about your area. That's what I was trying to say. Even Atlanta's past of Mid March snowstorms still gives me little to no confidence because realistically I can't expect miracles/flukes to happen in any given March, except for maybe once or twice in a lifetime. Hopefully, Atlanta will have it's big record breaking snow day sometime in my lifetime again soon. I really miss the snowstorms of 1936, 1940, 1982, etc. I'm sure you understand if you're a snow lover like me. I just have to try to keep it under control.
 
image.png Need it to dig sooner and close off

I feel like the early March pattern is favorable for a marginal event here east of the Applachians. Bloom killing freeze at the very least

Something to watch
 
Big ring around the moon tonight. Going to get snow soon. Thank you, all-time record-breaking NAO!
 
Clayton said:
Exactly. I don't see anything worth while in this pattern. The record breaking NAO is basically worthless at this point except for New England and maybe Mid-Atlantic. Otherwise, it's a waste.
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Worthless in regard to what? What do you mean a waste?
 
1300m said:
You're right, it is essentially a "negative NAO" for only a few days. Certainly isn't going to remain in place long enough to influence the pattern the way a typical negative NAO blocking regime would if it lasted for a week or more and was in DJF. Shows why you can't just look at one day and then try to compare it with some of the most extreme negative NAO March episodes ever recorded.
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Yeah I think it's pretty apparent this won't have much staying power given the long term interannual variability, tropical forcing shift into the Maritime Continent and continued anticyclonic wave breaking over the Aleutians. In all fairness, with regards to any wintry weather here in NC I don't it changes things much if this negative NAO lasts one or two weeks here instead of being a massive several day ordeal in early March. Reason being, cyclonic wave breaking is still favored over the east coast when it lifts out whether it lasts 1-2 weeks or just several days, keeping it around much longer after our climo becomes worse than I-20 in mid-winter after mid-March probably isn't going to do us much good and increase our chances from where they likely would be in a pattern like this. I'm not sure what the exact climo looks like for -NAO regimes outside of the last week of February thru mid March but this is the biggest event we've seen in that period for a particular day since 1979.
 
1300m said:
It just sucks, if this would have happened in mid-February instead I really think we could have pulled something off. Although a little more persistence in the block would have widened the window a ton even then. Oh well.

Edit: I don't have specific numbers for the exact period you discuss, but I do have the overall snow days >1" outside the mountains during ENSO events. Definitely an uptick with a neg. NAO even in a Nina, but obviously March climo still works against us.

NAO_Interactions.png
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I really think we are going to get the cutoff I’ve been talking about, but it will probably favor the very western Piedmont and VA. I think we will see one last snow for those areas.
 
1300m said:
It just sucks, if this would have happened in mid-February instead I really think we could have pulled something off. Although a little more persistence in the block would have widened the window a ton even then. Oh well.

Edit: I don't have specific numbers for the exact period you discuss, but I do have the overall snow days >1" outside the mountains during ENSO events. Definitely an uptick with a neg. NAO even in a Nina, but obviously March climo still works against us. Numbers in parenthesis beside the month name is the overall average number of days for that month that at least one station outside of the mountains of NC receives 1" or more of snow (through 2009 I believe).

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I totally agree. I honestly think we're doing the absolute bare minimum in terms of climo and the type/longevity of the pattern at hand to keep me mildly intrigued going forward. If nothing materializes between about March 5-12th following this s/w in the medium range oh well we at least hit our climo snowfall for the winter and got a 6" ish event and it's not like we have much of a chance at this time of the year even w/ a stellar pattern. Really nice graphic, the relative lack of decreasing frequency in +NAO/cool ENSO snows is intriguing. I'd definitely like to see an analysis like this down the line w/ the last 125 years of data to increase the sample size and analyze secular trends.
 
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