• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Magnificent March

Webberweather53 said:
Here's the updated probabilities for 1"+ of snow via the EPS. Obviously you can argue that the probabilities themselves are underdispersive and don't account for melting and lower ratios etc but the distribution seems fairly realistic. Pretty high chances for accumulating snow in the mountains, south-central VA (esp from Richmond and points W) and the VA border counties. RDU is on the outside looking in but clearly has a legitimate chance to squeeze something out.
View attachment 4389
Click to expand...
Lol little hope for southeast TN
 
Aside from getting other more obvious synoptic-scale variables in our court, we're going to need diurnal timing on our side from I-40 and points south to have a good chance of maximizing our opportunity (however large or small it may be) to get accumulating snow out of this. Can't entirely rule out a some flakes or very light accumulation as far south as the southern coastal plain of NC into the upstate of SC if both the diurnal timing is just right and the trailing s/w hastens rapid cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast like the 12z ICON shows
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_28.png
 
Nomanslandva said:
LOL at the NAM. Totally different. I think the ICON might win this one.
Click to expand...

Lol comparing the nam and the icon . The icon already made big changes on the 12z run vs it’s previous runs at H5. The icon gets mentioned like it’s the poster child because it did well with the January system . Every model has done well with a system at one point this year .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I don’t see why we can’t squeeze something out as this thing pulls away. Seems plausible, yes
 
That would be some good coverage if the Icon is right. 2/3 of NC would see snow.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol comparing the nam and the icon . The icon already made big changes on the 12z run vs it’s previous runs at H5. The icon gets mentioned like it’s the poster child because it did well with the January system . Every model has done well with a system at one point this year .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I was haflway kidding and really only talking about the later timing of the main event. This storm, everything is a mess.
 
Nomanslandva said:
I was haflway kidding and really only talking about the later timing of the main event. This storm, everything is a mess.
Click to expand...

Sorry I was being a douche . I’m just mad my mid Atlantic snow is slowly dying a death . I’m sure it will be sunny and mid 40s when I get there


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Sorry I was being a douche . I’m just mad my mid Atlantic snow is slowly dying a death . I’m sure it will be sunny and mid 40s when I get there


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It was DC, right? I think there is still a good chance if that later wave is real like on the NAM. Plus, later = more time for a NW trend:weenie:
 
The ECMWF in general looks a little better for the mid-Atlantic this run through 48 hours, the trailing short wave is slower, stronger and the low over New England is scooting out of the way a little faster not sure how much that'll translate later on but it's a positive early sign for this particular run for those north of Richmond.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ECMWF in general looks a little better for the mid-Atlantic this run through 48 hours, the trailing short wave is slower, stronger and the low over New England is scooting out of the way a little faster not sure how much that'll translate later on but it's a positive early sign for this particular run for those north of Richmond.
Click to expand...

An extremely subtle change in the orientation and speed of these shortwaves is all it took

ed6bcf65-45a4-4314-9787-9b9d74f4994b.gif
 
Nomanslandva said:
It was DC, right? I think there is still a good chance if that later wave is real like on the NAM. Plus, later = more time for a NW trend:weenie:
Click to expand...

Beltsville, it’s just north of DC. I’m bad luck though, I tried to warn them lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
H/t to Jon on twitter for this image. The Euro's diurnal timing is about as good as it gets for those along the I-40 corridor in NC. As mentioned earlier w/ the ICON, even if the surface low track is just right we need the heaviest precipitation to fall at the right time of the day as CAA envelopes most of central NC when the surface low is departing to give ourselves the best chance of seeing a brief period of moderate-heavy wet snow. Early spring warm snows like this one are excruciatingly difficult to predict, and the most subtle change in the timing, intensity and placement of the precipitation, concomitant surface low or upstream cold air source is the difference between absolutely nothing and a few inches of extremely wet snow and in a majority of cases nothing is what we get and that's the most likely scenario atm. This doesn't go without saying that NWP models can't handle sensible heat fluxes associated w/ melting snowflakes and cold rain drops falling into a warm BL and the rate and placement of precipitation are virtually impossible to predict even if the synoptic-scale features are nailed down virtually to a T.
DX3cHv7WkAA36P9.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jon
No better place to be to maximize this storm than the Boone area imo. Up top on slopes I can see 12 + , espeacilly 8f this closes off,phases at right time. 1st time I've seen ns coming in behind ss and that's how it works if u want to see a phased bomb.
 
NWTNWX said:
That is crazy. Absolutely nothing is blooming here. Shows you where the edge of the SE ridge set up.
Click to expand...
I guess full bloom was the wrong word to use. Over the last week though many of the trees have begun to sprout leaves and I've seen plenty of flowers in bloom. Got down to 23 last night and was below 30 for many hours so I'm sure some damage was done.
 
Can someone post the 12z Euro Rainfall Total over the Carolinas Please? We need rain in the Lowcountry as we are way below normal. #drought #La'Nina
 
Hey Eric, @Webberweather53 congrats if you get anything out of this. I think we can safely assume winter is over after this. Models are hinting at a blow torch kinda pattern starting late next week. So are there any updates you have about our downwelling Kelvin Wave and potential El Nino?
 
blowtorch for Texas maybe:
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Click to expand...
Hey Webb were you by any chance in a store on US1 in Franklin County just north of Youngsville earlier today, because if not you have a twin. Dude come in there with a state sweatshirt on look just like the pictures of you I've seen and I came so close to saying hey Eric but didn't want to look like a fool haha.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Hey Webb were you by any chance in a store on US1 in Franklin County just north of Youngsville earlier today, because if not you have a twin. Dude come in there with a state sweatshirt on look just like the pictures of you I've seen and I came so close to saying hey Eric but didn't want to look like a fool haha.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Oh no haha I've been in Fayetteville the entire day. Odds are pretty good with billions of people on this planet there are at least one or two people who like you.
 
Clayton said:
Hey Eric, @Webberweather53 congrats if you get anything out of this. I think we can safely assume winter is over after this. Models are hinting at a blow torch kinda pattern starting late next week. So are there any updates you have about our downwelling Kelvin Wave and potential El Nino?
Click to expand...

This Kelvin wave is beginning to attenuate (weaken, dampen) as it passes the international dateline due to a resurgence of easterly trade winds the last few weeks and is weaker than 2014 at this longitude. We'll need to see another WWB the next month or so to give us a good shot to see an El Nino this summer, we're probably headed towards warm neutral conditions in any case by the end of spring once this Kelvin Wave reaches the eastern boundary region (west coast of South America).
wkxzteq_anm (2).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
This Kelvin wave is beginning to attenuate (weaken, dampen) as it passes the international dateline due to a resurgence of easterly trade winds the last few weeks and is weaker than 2014 at this longitude. We'll need to see another WWB the next month or so to give us a good shot to see an El Nino this summer, we're probably headed towards warm neutral conditions in any case by the end of spring once this Kelvin Wave reaches the eastern boundary region (west coast of South America).
View attachment 4398
Click to expand...
Yeah, alot of people seem fairly confident that this La Nina will die a quick death in spring
 
Cool, hopefully we can get a wet summer in the SE! Like 2012! I swear, seemed like we had 2-3 inches of rain every 2-4 days the entire summer, it was great
 
Models do show a brief warm up but the long range Euro control has last half of March very cold .
 
Severe has sure been a dud so far! Gonna be a LONG time before that severe season starts! Maybe by May we get one or two severe storms! Glad to be tracking snow , rather than that crap!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Severe has sure been a dud so far! Gonna be a LONG time before that severe season starts! Maybe by May we get one or two severe storms! Glad to be tracking snow , rather than that crap!
Click to expand...
April has been the biggest month for severe weather around here the past few years.
 
Other than at the Southern Command Outpost, going into the 3rd week of March, given the setup, this is indeed a great look ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top