My man Whamby holding onto hope! Fight the good fight brother
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Pattern Magnificent March
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
ATLwxfan
Member
CentralGAColdFront
Member
My rain chances aren't even astronomical over the next few weeks and this developing drought is concerning unless El Nino actually does develop before summer begins. I was hoping that we would manage to avoid typical La Nina weather this winter after such an epic January, but the rest of this month sadly will dampen my wishes. For everyone getting rain in the western parts of the region, enjoy it! You could always be experiencing just the typical unseasonably warm/way drier that we experience in GA/SC (exemplified by the upcoming week) during these types of winters.
ATLwxfan
Member
Oh happy day!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I see nothing for the SE. Not sure what fantasy land glasses he is wearing but the SER is likely going to be around for a bit. It may cool, but not enough for snow or ice I think.
Jon
Member
Yeah it was wrong about Feb but it’s good to see the West-based -NAO showing up everywhere
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It's too late to be -NAO chasing. By the time we get one, if we do, climo (as stated above) will be an issue, and the Pacific is still in utter disarray. It would take time to build up a handsome supply of cold air in Canada. If all of that even worked out perfectly, we'd still be mid-March, the way it looks now. I suppose that's not technically too late, but we're betting on an inside strait and don't realize the 3 that we need has fallen out of the deck and is lying on the floor between the dealer's shoes.
Kylo
Member
EPS actually gets the NAO block inside day 10. The GEFS has been trending away from a -NAO for a couple of days now but the EPS still looks solid. It's not that far off from the early 2/79 event pattern, which had a -PNA and big trough in the west.
Definitely skeptical but with a hostile pacific this is the only chance, however small it might be, for snow in early March.
Definitely skeptical but with a hostile pacific this is the only chance, however small it might be, for snow in early March.
Kylo
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Epic blowtorch!!! Record highs forecast for many in central NC today. RDU's record is 77F set in 1976 we should have no trouble taking it out to the shed.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
So much for this cold pattern at the end of February we were supposed to get. NIÑA climo wins yet again and epic torching continues into early March lol. It'll be something if we challenge last year and 1927 for warmest February on record
sigwx
Member
Well it looks like lawn mower season has begun.........
ForsythSnow
Moderator
By the 20th, I'll decide to punt March or not. I'm sure I'm punting and I think everyone should as well. Seems like we've used up all our potential all across the south. Feels nice to have had more snow than DC has this year.
Rosie
Member
Have to say I am very happy not running the furnace!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The MJO refuses to leave phase 7, and still has amplitude ~2-2.5 sigma, thus consequently here comes yet another westerly wind burst near the dateline. If you wanted to kick off an El Nino this summer & fall and trigger a huge downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave, this is exactly how you do it. The longevity + intensity of the MJO in phase 7 is unmatched in the satellite era, and if you sum up the amplitude observed in this event inside phase 7 we spank 1997 & 2015 which preceded Super El Ninos (granted they both head a big headstart on this year starting from a warmer base point). Yikes.
Not really surprising to see Spring kick into full gear in mid/late February during a La Nina winter. As great as 2010/2011 was, after Atlanta got it's last measurable snow on February 9th(?), 2011, Winter came to a grinding halt and Severe Weather Season raged in on steroids.
I REALLY hope we don't get another Super El Nino anytime soon like 2015. That was the WORST winter I can remember. We had mold and mildew growing on the wood workbench in our garage in the middle of the winter. It was crazy!
Clayton
Member
Is there an easterly wind burst coming after that? Looks like it based on the lower pressures over Australia and higher pressures over Tahiti forecasted by the euro 5 to 6 days from now. Correct me if I'm wrong?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes, the MSLP configuration flips and looks more NINA esque. The Euro along w/ most other NWP however has been too quick to push the MJO into the W hem so take the timing of renewed easterly trades w/ a grain of salt.
Clayton
Member
Would this do anything to tamper any El Nino chances or renew La Nina strength, etc? I really don't want a Super Strong El Nino to mess up winter again if there is one coming if other forcing, etc. aligns. By the way, JB was already wayyyy ahead of you with the El Nino potential. Granted he may say that every other winter if not every winter, but you gotta admit he suspected it coming before you did, I assume based off pattern recognition, because he just as good in that department, if not better, than you.