When that PV split gets picked up by models, flip to cold will be quick ! The -NAO is coming! When all hope is lost, we sneak in a miracle snow. Just wish we could have sustained cold, as easily as we can sustain heat and the SE ridge!
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Pattern Magnificent March
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Nope, it's not going to be okay. I'm 1 week from punting March for all but maybe TX. Front loaded and done seems to be coming to reality. It was a good winter00z gefs, eps and geps. Takes us into the first week of March . Someone please post the CFSv2 and tell me it's all gonna be ok ...
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.Kylo
Member
Guess we shouldn't be surprised, models have been modeling blocking in the extended and it hasn't panned out yet. GEFS backing off the stout -NAO.
Jon
Member
Those maps can be deceiving. Doesn’t look like it to me.
Also, West-based -NAO isn’t supposed to form until March 1 or later
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Kylo
Member
Compare the chart you posted versus the one from 2/14 0z run. Today’s run for 2/24 has a -1std NAO and the 2/14 0z run was -3std. Not saying there won’t be a NAO block but GEFS is backing off the strength as it gets closer.
Compare the 2/22 dates below. These darn NAO blocks have been so tough to achieve. Still hope to see a little snow event in March.
cd2play
Member
I do think many of us (in upper South anyways) will get our March flizzard. That may be about it though.
Jon
Member
This is a pattern the NE can benefit from. Yeah, we’ll need a ridge out west for the SE lol
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Jon
Member
I see what you’re saying. The -NAO in general appears later comparing those two model runs for 2/22...the image you posted showing the 48hr trends analyzes the area a west-based NAO would appear, and if we had graphics analyzing those I doubt there would be a huge difference in timing. I know Allan Huffman used to have west-based graphs. My point is the -NAO on 2/22 won’t matter but I get your point, if it delays into March....but given the strong multi model ensemble support I’m pretty convinced we see one.
As this gif shows it’s mostly just noise, -NAO bouncing around.
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If we get a -NAO, and don’t reap the benefits, then who really cares? Bring on spring!
ATLwxfan
Member
Nothing like the toasty combo of a -NAO along with a central US ridge. This winter has turned into a wall to wall suckfest of suckiness. It’s hard to understand why we can’t have 3 months out of the year, half of which doesnt feel like an extension of spring or summer.
tractor girl
Member
tennessee storm
Member
12 z euro has perhaps our first severe weather threat for the mid south tn valley region day 9. 10
Kylo
Member
It is disappointing to potentially have the third straight winter where February and March was snowless. Hard to complain to much with two great winter events in January.
Do 9-10 day severe threats turn out better than 9-10 day winter storms or cold? If not, let me tell you how that will turn out...,
This reminds me of those back loaded winters we enjoyed the last 2-3 year’s!
SCweather
Member
Atleast most of yall got snow. I'd be happy down here with a 1-3 inch snowstorm and the rest of Winter torching considering we haven't got hit in 4 years here.
Storm5
Member