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Pattern Magnificent March

Stormlover said:
From Meteorologist Brad Travis in Huntsville:
Signals are there that show the potential for a colder than normal period around the first 10 days of March. This would be our last chance for snow or ice this season.
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I hope it’s that and not...this

353dabc018c81ebbe11740b46c48b482.jpg



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My rain chances aren't even astronomical over the next few weeks and this developing drought is concerning unless El Nino actually does develop before summer begins. I was hoping that we would manage to avoid typical La Nina weather this winter after such an epic January, but the rest of this month sadly will dampen my wishes. For everyone getting rain in the western parts of the region, enjoy it! You could always be experiencing just the typical unseasonably warm/way drier that we experience in GA/SC (exemplified by the upcoming week) during these types of winters.
 
Stormlover said:
From Meteorologist Brad Travis in Huntsville:
Signals are there that show the potential for a colder than normal period around the first 10 days of March. This would be our last chance for snow or ice this season.
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I see nothing for the SE. Not sure what fantasy land glasses he is wearing but the SER is likely going to be around for a bit. It may cool, but not enough for snow or ice I think.
 
1300m said:
The CFS was showing this for most of February too. Not buying it.
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Yeah it was wrong about Feb but it’s good to see the West-based -NAO showing up everywhere


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It's too late to be -NAO chasing. By the time we get one, if we do, climo (as stated above) will be an issue, and the Pacific is still in utter disarray. It would take time to build up a handsome supply of cold air in Canada. If all of that even worked out perfectly, we'd still be mid-March, the way it looks now. I suppose that's not technically too late, but we're betting on an inside strait and don't realize the 3 that we need has fallen out of the deck and is lying on the floor between the dealer's shoes.
 
EPS actually gets the NAO block inside day 10. The GEFS has been trending away from a -NAO for a couple of days now but the EPS still looks solid. It's not that far off from the early 2/79 event pattern, which had a -PNA and big trough in the west.

Definitely skeptical but with a hostile pacific this is the only chance, however small it might be, for snow in early March.

Screen Shot 2018-02-16 at 9.44.24 AM.png compday.k3P4ijuaTs.gif 14-km EPS Global North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 360 (1).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
So much for this cold pattern at the end of February we were supposed to get. NIÑA climo wins yet again and epic torching continues into early March lol. It'll be something if we challenge last year and 1927 for warmest February on record
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By the 20th, I'll decide to punt March or not. I'm sure I'm punting and I think everyone should as well. Seems like we've used up all our potential all across the south. Feels nice to have had more snow than DC has this year.
 
ForsythSnow said:
By the 20th, I'll decide to punt March or not. I'm sure I'm punting and I think everyone should as well. Seems like we've used up all our potential all across the south. Feels nice to have had more snow than DC has this year.
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Have to say I am very happy not running the furnace!
 
The MJO refuses to leave phase 7, and still has amplitude ~2-2.5 sigma, thus consequently here comes yet another westerly wind burst near the dateline. If you wanted to kick off an El Nino this summer & fall and trigger a huge downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave, this is exactly how you do it. The longevity + intensity of the MJO in phase 7 is unmatched in the satellite era, and if you sum up the amplitude observed in this event inside phase 7 we spank 1997 & 2015 which preceded Super El Ninos (granted they both head a big headstart on this year starting from a warmer base point). Yikes.

ECMF_phase_51m_small (1).gif

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
 
Not really surprising to see Spring kick into full gear in mid/late February during a La Nina winter. As great as 2010/2011 was, after Atlanta got it's last measurable snow on February 9th(?), 2011, Winter came to a grinding halt and Severe Weather Season raged in on steroids.
 
I REALLY hope we don't get another Super El Nino anytime soon like 2015. That was the WORST winter I can remember. We had mold and mildew growing on the wood workbench in our garage in the middle of the winter. It was crazy!
 
Webberweather53 said:
The MJO refuses to leave phase 7, and still has amplitude ~2-2.5 sigma, thus consequently here comes yet another westerly wind burst near the dateline. If you wanted to kick off an El Nino this summer & fall and trigger a huge downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave, this is exactly how you do it. The longevity + intensity of the MJO in phase 7 is unmatched in the satellite era, and if you sum up the amplitude observed in this event inside phase 7 we spank 1997 & 2015 which preceded Super El Ninos (granted they both head a big headstart on this year starting from a warmer base point). Yikes.

View attachment 4055

View attachment 4054
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Is there an easterly wind burst coming after that? Looks like it based on the lower pressures over Australia and higher pressures over Tahiti forecasted by the euro 5 to 6 days from now. Correct me if I'm wrong?
 
Clayton said:
Is there an easterly wind burst coming after that? Looks like it based on the lower pressures over Australia and higher pressures over Tahiti forecasted by the euro 5 to 6 days from now. Correct me if I'm wrong?
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Yes, the MSLP configuration flips and looks more NINA esque. The Euro along w/ most other NWP however has been too quick to push the MJO into the W hem so take the timing of renewed easterly trades w/ a grain of salt.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes, the MSLP configuration flips and looks more NINA esque. The Euro along w/ most other NWP however has been too quick to push the MJO into the W hem so take the timing of renewed easterly trades w/ a grain of salt.
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Would this do anything to tamper any El Nino chances or renew La Nina strength, etc? I really don't want a Super Strong El Nino to mess up winter again if there is one coming if other forcing, etc. aligns. By the way, JB was already wayyyy ahead of you with the El Nino potential. Granted he may say that every other winter if not every winter, but you gotta admit he suspected it coming before you did, I assume based off pattern recognition, because he just as good in that department, if not better, than you.
 
Joe Bastardi says what he wants to say. That's not to discredit him as a met because he does have knowledge but his free stuff is pretty much he's trying to look for a way to try to forecast a major winter for the northeast, every single time.

I don't know if Bastardi is affiliated with Accuweather anymore but I got more from listening to Frank Strait's thoughts from there a while back.

Edit: That's not to endorse accuweather as I don't. The fact they have very long range in their forecasts is ridiculous. Part of the reason I mostly stopped looking at it.
 
Clayton said:
Would this do anything to tamper any El Nino chances or renew La Nina strength, etc? I really don't want a Super Strong El Nino to mess up winter again if there is one coming if other forcing, etc. aligns. By the way, JB was already wayyyy ahead of you with the El Nino potential. Granted he may say that every other winter if not every winter, but you gotta admit he suspected it coming before you did, I assume based off pattern recognition, because he just as good in that department, if not better, than you.
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Lol yeah ok, Joe Bastardi has no idea what he's doing he calls for a modoki El Niño every year, we don't even really know if there's going to be a NINO much less if it will be of this type. Then he made up some bs about how a increase in sunspots resulted in stronger and long lives Pacific MJO event but provided no explanation, he doesn't know what's going on and almost no one in the met community takes him seriously. Even a broken clock is right twice a day
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Not really surprising to see Spring kick into full gear in mid/late February during a La Nina winter. As great as 2010/2011 was, after Atlanta got it's last measurable snow on February 9th(?), 2011, Winter came to a grinding halt and Severe Weather Season raged in on steroids.
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True, after that storm here in Columbia around early Jan 2011, Winter was basically over after that.
 
E9599F53-253F-459C-A7BB-6EA825419A99.png 29B9F990-8E42-4352-B5E4-BB8DA06FC8EE.png Well, we got this to look forward to! We all new it was coming!
 
We wait all winter for a -NAO and this is the crap we get:

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_49.png
What a joke.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol yeah ok, Joe Bastardi has no idea what he's doing he calls for a modoki El Niño every year, we don't even really know if there's going to be a NINO much less if it will be of this type. Then he made up some bs about how a increase in sunspots resulted in stronger and long lives Pacific MJO event but provided no explanation, he doesn't know what's going on and almost no one in the met community takes him seriously. Even a broken clock is right twice a day
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Yeah, you're right about that haha. But you gotta admit he has some skill in what he does, I've observed that he can be skilled at pattern recognition, and debunking model forecasts that make no sense. So I wouldn't totally discredit or underestimate him, just be wary of that. He has far more meteorology years under his belt than you, and I assume he's amassed great wisdom over the years. But I do admit that the excuse he gave about MJO speed and sunspots was crazy and with no explanation. It was pretty hilarious tbh hahaha.
 
1300m said:
Not to derail this thread too much, but I do not like seeing statements like this. 1) Greg Fishel and many other meteorologists have 20+ years more forecast experience than I do, but I don't consider them better forecasters than myself. When it comes to winter events, the cold hard facts is more times than not I get it right over them. And so does Webber and many others. 2) I have many more years of meteorology under my belt than Webb, but he has still taught me things this year about the MJO that I did not know. Just because someone has 30 years of experience doing something the wrong way in no way, shape, or form makes them better than someone else. This is not meant as an attack against you, but just an argument against that line of thinking, which I see a lot when folks reference NWS forecasts or professional forecasts in general.
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And well just to fully derail this thread (let's face it the wheels were coming off anyway lol) I'll take this just a step further and say the notion of someone being better or more "suited" for anything because of the years of experience far transcends just the meteorology world. I see it all the time in the work force, "so and so" should have got that job they have x number of years, never mind they can barely read and write, fail to show up to work on time, etc etc... Lol I'm sorry but I'm glad you gave your rebuttal it's a pet peeve of mine. Years of experience do not always equal expertise that's for sure.

Sorry guys (and gals) carry on....
 
metwannabe said:
And well just to fully derail this thread (let's face it the wheels were coming off anyway lol) I'll take this just a step further and say the notion of someone being better or more "suited" for anything because of the years of experience far transcends just the meteorology world. I see it all the time in the work force, "so and so" should have got that job they have x number of years, never mind they can barely read and write, fail to show up to work on time, etc etc... Lol I'm sorry but I'm glad you gave your rebuttal it's a pet peeve of mine. Years of experience do not always equal expertise that's for sure.

Sorry guys (and gals) carry on....
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I get what you guys are saying. I'm just saying don't always try to discredit JB or down him all the time. He has cold and snowy biases just like some or most of us and it sometimes clouds his judgment maybe. He's human and makes mistakes. No one truly knows what the weather is going to do 100%of the time. It's too complex and sometimes you have to go by experience. He has his strengths in certain areas, and weaknesses just like any one of us does
 
1300m said:
Not to derail this thread too much, but I do not like seeing statements like this. 1) Greg Fishel and many other meteorologists have 20+ years more forecast experience than I do, but I don't consider them better forecasters than myself. When it comes to winter events, the cold hard facts is more times than not I get it right over them. And so does Webber and many others. 2) I have many more years of meteorology under my belt than Webb, but he has still taught me things this year about the MJO that I did not know. Just because someone has 30 years of experience doing something the wrong way in no way, shape, or form makes them better than someone else. This is not meant as an attack against you, but just an argument against that line of thinking, which I see a lot when folks reference NWS forecasts or professional forecasts in general.
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metwannabe said:
And well just to fully derail this thread (let's face it the wheels were coming off anyway lol) I'll take this just a step further and say the notion of someone being better or more "suited" for anything because of the years of experience far transcends just the meteorology world. I see it all the time in the work force, "so and so" should have got that job they have x number of years, never mind they can barely read and write, fail to show up to work on time, etc etc... Lol I'm sorry but I'm glad you gave your rebuttal it's a pet peeve of mine. Years of experience do not always equal expertise that's for sure.

Sorry guys (and gals) carry on....
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Fabulous ... the only word befitting ... Thanks!
;)
 
GaWx said:
An Aleutian trough is normally much more conducive to SE cold as the trough teleconnects well to a PNA/west coast ridge. Therefore, I'm generally not a fan of Aleutian ridges.
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Larry,
Barring a miracle, you and I are on to spring (regrettably). I have to be in Haile late on Monday afternoon and plan on stopping by Vet's Park around 7:00 PM on my way back to north Alachua County; I'll give the grounds your best when I do a walk!
Best!
Phil
 
GaWx said:
An Aleutian trough is normally much more conducive to SE cold as the trough teleconnects well to a PNA/west coast ridge. Therefore, I'm generally not a fan of Aleutian ridges.
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We know you like that +PNA, we all do :)

But, -PNA/-NAO has produced over the years, well for Raleigh atleast. With a -PNA a poleward aleutian ridge is welcome.

Agree though, preferably would like a +PNA/-EPO coupled with -NAO. Though, still prefer a -NAO/-PNA over a +NAO/+PNA.
 
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Off the top of my head, these are 5 events that -NAO/-PNA that were solid snow events for central NC. Poleward building aleutian ridge connected to -NAO.
AD92D5AC-4327-49C1-B363-C28BFE8A2C38.gif
 
PNA is tanking and a -NAO, standing alone, is at best going to block and lock seasonal air ...
 
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Should be an interesting test of the indices as the PNA looks to go largely negative while the NAO and AO also go negative around the 1st of March, while the MJO looks questionable as to whether is stays in 7 or drifts into 8. Will be a variable time for sure
 
Clayton said:
I get what you guys are saying. I'm just saying don't always try to discredit JB or down him all the time. He has cold and snowy biases just like some or most of us and it sometimes clouds his judgment maybe. He's human and makes mistakes. No one truly knows what the weather is going to do 100%of the time. It's too complex and sometimes you have to go by experience. He has his strengths in certain areas, and weaknesses just like any one of us does
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I would like to see the personal attacks on JB be canned. If folks want to refute him then use your intellect and education. If you're an armchair quarterback and just say he doesnt know or yada, yada without making your case for the opposite then why even say anything?

It's always disappointing to see it get personal when there is absolutely no need.

Just my 1/2 penny..
 
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