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Pattern Magnificent March

It will be interesting to see at the end of winter how we averaged out temperature-wise for the whole winter.. I know we're 15 to 25 degrees warmer than average right now but I'm sure back in early January we were 15 to 25 degrees colder than average depending on where you are.
 
PNA in the LR is headed toward neutral, also just because it’s negative doesn’t mean we can’t get a storm (it’s harder for the SE but NC could get lucky)...keep in mind we could have a neutral PNA and still pop a ridge strong enough to send a storm SE.
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I’m also not convinced on the location of the ridging around Alaska once the -NAO forms. It could form largely to the east of the Aleutians which would pop a trough in the gulf of Alaska and a ridge on the west.

Loop the GEFS from day 10-16 and you can see this movement...here’s the last frame.
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Last 10 days or so we have been in MJO phase 7. Temperature analogs versus actual.

Screen Shot 2018-02-17 at 9.40.01 AM.png
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GFS 6z crazy pattern setup but if teleconnections are correct and H5 Patten is close its fixing to get carazzzzy
F63BA6C2-FF0D-4FFB-9426-FD2A034D9FD0.jpeg

This is in partial due to the SSW and PV that died off. Temps well below normal
 
pcbjr said:
PNA is tanking and a -NAO, standing alone, is at best going to block and lock seasonal air ...
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We still have a strong neg AO forecast to go with the negative nao. It might work out better for us to see snow...maybe it won't last as long?
 
Kylo said:
Finally have good model agreement on the MJO going into March with it circling phases 8-1-2.
View attachment 4064


View attachment 4066

View attachment 4065
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Notice as I mentioned yesterday the Euro was likely way too fast in taking the MJO out of phase 7, it has not moved at all in the last 4 days, while the Euro and JMA consistently tried to take it into phase 8 in a hurry. Take their timing and amplitude of the MJO with truckloads of salt until we can actually get out of phase 7
 
Webberweather53 said:
Notice as I mentioned yesterday the Euro was likely way too fast in taking the MJO out of phase 7, it has not moved at all in the last 4 days, while the Euro and JMA consistently tried to take it into phase 8 in a hurry. Take their timing and amplitude of the MJO with truckloads of salt until we can actually get out of phase 7
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I agree Webber but the GEFS (which has verified better on the MJO) was holding it stalled in 7 but also has it now moving into 8 and then 1-2 which is a bit of a change
 
FWIW ...


Although the CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies does not agree at all ... so JB or the CSSv2?
:eek:
 
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pcbjr said:
FWIW ...


Although the CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies does not agree at all ... so JB or the CSSv2?
:eek:
Click to expand...

Lol typical. The -NAO is way out in the LR and is staying that way. Perhaps he will... no he won't. He won't see that when the models do that they never verify. Just keeps his followers on the edges of their seats while the clock ticks. I'm sure they still will be when the final buzzer sounds and the game is called that is winter.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol typical. The -NAO is way out in the LR and is staying that way. Perhaps he will... no he won't. He won't see that when the models do that they never verify. Just keeps his followers on the edges of their seats while the clock ticks. I'm sure they still will be when the final buzzer sounds and the game is called that is winter.
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1) I agree
2) My point with a chuckle was --- which is more reliable - JB or CFSv2?
3) I think all would be better served if I really stuck with my Lenten vow of not posting (so hard to do, but probably better for all) ... :confused:
 
pcbjr said:
FWIW ...


Although the CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies does not agree at all ... so JB or the CSSv2?
:eek:
Click to expand...


Some big names throwing out 1962 now, I been screaming that for the last week or so. The pattern evolution is almost identical, IMO. It’s hard to get any better than this....







 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol typical. The -NAO is way out in the LR and is staying that way. Perhaps he will... no he won't. He won't see that when the models do that they never verify. Just keeps his followers on the edges of their seats while the clock ticks. I'm sure they still will be when the final buzzer sounds and the game is called that is winter.
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I’m finding it hard to believe the -NAO won’t happen. All signs are screaming -NAO to start March. I have yet to hear a reason other than that models have predicted them in the past and they don’t form....the models also have predicted them in the past many times and they’ve formed, many times.


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Jon said:
I’m finding it hard to believe the -NAO won’t happen. All signs are screaming -NAO to start March. I have yet to hear a reason other than that models have predicted them in the past and they don’t form....the models also have predicted them in the past many times and they’ve formed, many times.


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If it happens, then I doubt winter will return and a big storm will happen. I really don't think that there will be great impacts from this, but I could be wrong.
 
Jon said:
I’m finding it hard to believe the -NAO won’t happen. All signs are screaming -NAO to start March. I have yet to hear a reason other than that models have predicted them in the past and they don’t form....the models also have predicted them in the past many times and they’ve formed, many times.


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Jon,
Whatever happens, as always, you have me piqued.
Thanks, Man!
Gawd am I glad you're over here sharing the wealth!
Best!
Phil

BTW - Regrettably or not, I'm old enough to remember '62 ... :eek:
 
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Jon said:
I’m finding it hard to believe the -NAO won’t happen. All signs are screaming -NAO to start March. I have yet to hear a reason other than that models have predicted them in the past and they don’t form....the models also have predicted them in the past many times and they’ve formed, many times.


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Click to expand...

You were right on this. The GEFS did back off for a few runs but has since come on strong with a west based NAO which EPS agrees. Both models inside day 10 now. Both also taking EPO negative.
 
pcbjr said:
Jon,
Whatever happens, as always, you have me piqued.
Thanks, Man!
Gawd am I glad you're over here sharing the wealth!
Best!
Phil

BTW - Regrettably or not, I'm old enough to remember '62 ... :eek:
Click to expand...
I've always loved March. I've seen some great times in March. People who give up on winter in Feb. are crazy. They just haven't lived long enough to see good Marches. Just because I'm slapping mosquitoes already, and my blue berries are blooming, doesn't tell me a thing about March :)
 
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