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Pattern Magnificent March

Hey Eric, @Webberweather53 congrats if you get anything out of this. I think we can safely assume winter is over after this. Models are hinting at a blow torch kinda pattern starting late next week. So are there any updates you have about our downwelling Kelvin Wave and potential El Nino?
 
blowtorch for Texas maybe:
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
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Hey Webb were you by any chance in a store on US1 in Franklin County just north of Youngsville earlier today, because if not you have a twin. Dude come in there with a state sweatshirt on look just like the pictures of you I've seen and I came so close to saying hey Eric but didn't want to look like a fool haha.

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metwannabe said:
Hey Webb were you by any chance in a store on US1 in Franklin County just north of Youngsville earlier today, because if not you have a twin. Dude come in there with a state sweatshirt on look just like the pictures of you I've seen and I came so close to saying hey Eric but didn't want to look like a fool haha.

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Oh no haha I've been in Fayetteville the entire day. Odds are pretty good with billions of people on this planet there are at least one or two people who like you.
 
Clayton said:
Hey Eric, @Webberweather53 congrats if you get anything out of this. I think we can safely assume winter is over after this. Models are hinting at a blow torch kinda pattern starting late next week. So are there any updates you have about our downwelling Kelvin Wave and potential El Nino?
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This Kelvin wave is beginning to attenuate (weaken, dampen) as it passes the international dateline due to a resurgence of easterly trade winds the last few weeks and is weaker than 2014 at this longitude. We'll need to see another WWB the next month or so to give us a good shot to see an El Nino this summer, we're probably headed towards warm neutral conditions in any case by the end of spring once this Kelvin Wave reaches the eastern boundary region (west coast of South America).
wkxzteq_anm (2).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
This Kelvin wave is beginning to attenuate (weaken, dampen) as it passes the international dateline due to a resurgence of easterly trade winds the last few weeks and is weaker than 2014 at this longitude. We'll need to see another WWB the next month or so to give us a good shot to see an El Nino this summer, we're probably headed towards warm neutral conditions in any case by the end of spring once this Kelvin Wave reaches the eastern boundary region (west coast of South America).
View attachment 4398
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Yeah, alot of people seem fairly confident that this La Nina will die a quick death in spring
 
Cool, hopefully we can get a wet summer in the SE! Like 2012! I swear, seemed like we had 2-3 inches of rain every 2-4 days the entire summer, it was great
 
Models do show a brief warm up but the long range Euro control has last half of March very cold .
 
Severe has sure been a dud so far! Gonna be a LONG time before that severe season starts! Maybe by May we get one or two severe storms! Glad to be tracking snow , rather than that crap!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Severe has sure been a dud so far! Gonna be a LONG time before that severe season starts! Maybe by May we get one or two severe storms! Glad to be tracking snow , rather than that crap!
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April has been the biggest month for severe weather around here the past few years.
 
Other than at the Southern Command Outpost, going into the 3rd week of March, given the setup, this is indeed a great look ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
 
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