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Pattern Magnificent March

Webberweather53 said:
Here's the updated probabilities for 1"+ of snow via the EPS. Obviously you can argue that the probabilities themselves are underdispersive and don't account for melting and lower ratios etc but the distribution seems fairly realistic. Pretty high chances for accumulating snow in the mountains, south-central VA (esp from Richmond and points W) and the VA border counties. RDU is on the outside looking in but clearly has a legitimate chance to squeeze something out.
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Lol little hope for southeast TN
 
Aside from getting other more obvious synoptic-scale variables in our court, we're going to need diurnal timing on our side from I-40 and points south to have a good chance of maximizing our opportunity (however large or small it may be) to get accumulating snow out of this. Can't entirely rule out a some flakes or very light accumulation as far south as the southern coastal plain of NC into the upstate of SC if both the diurnal timing is just right and the trailing s/w hastens rapid cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast like the 12z ICON shows
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Nomanslandva said:
LOL at the NAM. Totally different. I think the ICON might win this one.
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Lol comparing the nam and the icon . The icon already made big changes on the 12z run vs it’s previous runs at H5. The icon gets mentioned like it’s the poster child because it did well with the January system . Every model has done well with a system at one point this year .


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I don’t see why we can’t squeeze something out as this thing pulls away. Seems plausible, yes
 
That would be some good coverage if the Icon is right. 2/3 of NC would see snow.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol comparing the nam and the icon . The icon already made big changes on the 12z run vs it’s previous runs at H5. The icon gets mentioned like it’s the poster child because it did well with the January system . Every model has done well with a system at one point this year .


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I was haflway kidding and really only talking about the later timing of the main event. This storm, everything is a mess.
 
Nomanslandva said:
I was haflway kidding and really only talking about the later timing of the main event. This storm, everything is a mess.
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Sorry I was being a douche . I’m just mad my mid Atlantic snow is slowly dying a death . I’m sure it will be sunny and mid 40s when I get there


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Storm5 said:
Sorry I was being a douche . I’m just mad my mid Atlantic snow is slowly dying a death . I’m sure it will be sunny and mid 40s when I get there


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It was DC, right? I think there is still a good chance if that later wave is real like on the NAM. Plus, later = more time for a NW trend:weenie:
 
The ECMWF in general looks a little better for the mid-Atlantic this run through 48 hours, the trailing short wave is slower, stronger and the low over New England is scooting out of the way a little faster not sure how much that'll translate later on but it's a positive early sign for this particular run for those north of Richmond.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ECMWF in general looks a little better for the mid-Atlantic this run through 48 hours, the trailing short wave is slower, stronger and the low over New England is scooting out of the way a little faster not sure how much that'll translate later on but it's a positive early sign for this particular run for those north of Richmond.
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An extremely subtle change in the orientation and speed of these shortwaves is all it took

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Nomanslandva said:
It was DC, right? I think there is still a good chance if that later wave is real like on the NAM. Plus, later = more time for a NW trend:weenie:
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Beltsville, it’s just north of DC. I’m bad luck though, I tried to warn them lol


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H/t to Jon on twitter for this image. The Euro's diurnal timing is about as good as it gets for those along the I-40 corridor in NC. As mentioned earlier w/ the ICON, even if the surface low track is just right we need the heaviest precipitation to fall at the right time of the day as CAA envelopes most of central NC when the surface low is departing to give ourselves the best chance of seeing a brief period of moderate-heavy wet snow. Early spring warm snows like this one are excruciatingly difficult to predict, and the most subtle change in the timing, intensity and placement of the precipitation, concomitant surface low or upstream cold air source is the difference between absolutely nothing and a few inches of extremely wet snow and in a majority of cases nothing is what we get and that's the most likely scenario atm. This doesn't go without saying that NWP models can't handle sensible heat fluxes associated w/ melting snowflakes and cold rain drops falling into a warm BL and the rate and placement of precipitation are virtually impossible to predict even if the synoptic-scale features are nailed down virtually to a T.
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No better place to be to maximize this storm than the Boone area imo. Up top on slopes I can see 12 + , espeacilly 8f this closes off,phases at right time. 1st time I've seen ns coming in behind ss and that's how it works if u want to see a phased bomb.
 
NWTNWX said:
That is crazy. Absolutely nothing is blooming here. Shows you where the edge of the SE ridge set up.
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I guess full bloom was the wrong word to use. Over the last week though many of the trees have begun to sprout leaves and I've seen plenty of flowers in bloom. Got down to 23 last night and was below 30 for many hours so I'm sure some damage was done.
 
Can someone post the 12z Euro Rainfall Total over the Carolinas Please? We need rain in the Lowcountry as we are way below normal. #drought #La'Nina
 
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