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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

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Looks like HRRR is playing catch up to the global/regional models (and others)filling in of the dry slot later today


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I thought this thing started at 3am
I’ve been so stuck on fancy snow maps for the last 7 days i don’t even know what’s going on. I was promised 6” by sunrise..?

Nah radar looks like it’s about to light up. I think we are good for 1-3 inches. Locally higher 4” reports. Charlotte getting 11IMG_8300.gif
 
Radar was looking healthy for a minute then went poof over n ga..slacked off. Got a dusting so far. Not sure what nws saw to up us to 3-6 inches but hopefully the radar fills more to the nw.
I wish ffc would switch radar modes. GSP and CAE have it on 34 which picks up this fine snow much better than mode 35 which ffc has their and macon's radar on.

ffc is aggressive for my local. forecasting 3 to 7 but they have 4 to 8 in their zones between athens and washington
 
H5 coming in and will begin to get more neutrally tilted and add more PVA aloft to the situation, everything should blossom more in the next few hours here

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Explains why the NWS is upping totals. Looks to be going more negatively tilted vs some of the models. Also explains why it’s taking a bit long to get the precip to blossom
 
H5 coming in and will begin to get more neutrally tilted and add more PVA aloft to the situation, everything should blossom more in the next few hours here

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Correct. But I do think I'm cooked for 8 inch totals. The models seemed to overestimate the leading edge. Its been snowing for 4 1/2 hrs now and only amounted to a dusting. Seems the models had northern Spartanburg county between 2-3 by 7am. Unless I'm mistaken. If we only have 9-10 hrs left we have to maintain almost 1 inch per hour rates to get 8 inches. Not happening imo. Still think areas southeast of me do well
 
Correct. But I do think I'm cooked for 8 inch totals. The models seemed to overestimate the leading edge. Its been snowing for 4 1/2 hrs now and only amounted to a dusting. Seems the models had northern Spartanburg county between 2-3 by 7am. Unless I'm mistaken. If we only have 9-10 hrs left we have to maintain almost 1 inch per hour rates to get 8 inches. Not happening imo. Still think areas southeast of me do well
6z HRRR valid right now:
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It’s already starting to look tasty. Imagine Fort Mill/Rock Hill are getting it pretty good right now.
What’s even better is those greens are going to start to pivot and move north to south. Greenville to CLT are in prime position to get smoked from these bands west to east and then north to south.
 
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