Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Another winter storm data mission underway for the hurricane hunters, headed to the Atlantic to help figure out how much snow for the east coast


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[jrips27]

Adding more evidence that this will be a boom or bust for ATL. Latest HRRR sets up a band right over Atlanta this run. 2-3 inches wherever that band sets up. If you're outside of that west of wherever that band sets up you're gonna get maybe an inch. There will be winners and losers

 

[wow]

Oh this hrrr run is gonna be big for charlotte

It's huge.. already 6-8" and still going

 

[WXinCanton]

 

[Avalanche]

It looks like the FAY area may get near the heaviest amounts of well inland NC based on a good number of models.

As long as the def band pivots off the coastline before they race north.

 

[WXinCanton]

Adding more evidence that this will be a boom or bust for ATL. Latest HRRR sets up a band right over Atlanta this run. 2-3 inches wherever that band sets up. If you're outside of that west of wherever that band sets up you're gonna get maybe an inch. There will be winners and losers

That band is ever so slightly bumping West on the HRRR

 

[beanskip]

Never really seen anything like this -- areas that had 6-8 inches on the 6z run are at zero -- all the way at 21z Saturday. Crazy.

 

[BackThePack]

Never really seen anything like this -- areas that had 6-8 inches on the 6z run are at zero -- all the way at 21z Saturday. Crazy. View attachment 191934

Highlights the utter importance of not reading model runs verbatim but within a much larger collection of data.

 

[foothillscrewzone]

Ouch for Triangle this run

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Somebody getting a foot

 

[BrickTamland]

Man, these models are all over the place run to run less than 24 hours out.

 

[NBAcentel]

That’ll do it

 

[GaWx]

Never really seen anything like this -- areas that had 6-8 inches on the 6z run are at zero -- all the way at 21z Saturday. Crazy. View attachment 191934

For those who don’t realize: The snow on that HRRR run is not nearly finished for many as it’s only through 4PM.

 

[foothillscrewzone]

That’ll do it View attachment 191937

Meso low cranking

 

[jackendrickwx]

verbatim the hrrr is starting us out with 12-15:1 ratios and keeping them there

 

[foothillscrewzone]

For those who don’t realize: The snow on that is not nearly finished for many as it’s only through 4PM.

Yes here is the better picture- still a huge gap

 

[beanskip]

For those who don’t realize: The snow on that HRRR run is not nearly finished for many as it’s only through 4PM.

Still next to zip for RDU at 5z Sunday. Not saying it's going to happen, but I'd ignore that kind of model run at my own risk.

 

[Pilotwx]

 

[LukeBarrette]

Snowing at a good clip again here. Been so off and on, even with the sun coming out at times. Roads wet from the sun but probably about a quarter inch to half inch of snow has accumulated elsewhere. Sloppy up here but that was to be expected.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Yes here is the better picture- still a huge gapView attachment 191938

Literal State Jackpot on top of Me and @SnowNiner


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[Brandon10]

That run is absolutely shredding the Pamlico and Albemarle sound region. makes sense based off of where the low is

 

[foothillscrewzone]

That run is absolutely shredding the Pamlico and Albemarle sound region. makes sense based off of where the low is

New Bern gets crushed

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Man If I was in Raleigh, I would be sweating bullets right now. It really is an all-or-nothing for them. I need them to perform so I have a chance at winning the snowfall forecast. I still think they'll perform well and I'm betting on the "all", but sheesh, I don't think I've ever seen this before where your options are almost no snow or 1 foot.

 

[foothillscrewzone]

Don't worry the 18Z NAM will be out soon to show something completely different, I'm sure.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

HRRR gives me 3.5 inches. My wishcasting this thing 300 miles west in 48 hours is almost complete

 

[Stormsfury]

filling in east
View attachment 191930

Tri County Region of Charleston, Dorchester, Berkeley getting pasted on!

 

[blueheronNC]

Looks like where the 18z HRRRRRR is going off the rails (or sniffing out something) is the west-east oriented squall line east of CHS that completely shuts down elevated inflow (rain shadow).

 

[rburrel2]

That meso low at 925mb-850mb is gonna spin down towards Charleston and take the best forcing with it. Sucks for Eastern NC(except those who get in on the coastal precip bloom.)

 

[Ross]

i don't think this thing will evolve like that but the rdu snow hole is showing up a little too frequently for me to totally discount it as noise

 

[beanskip]

What the 18z HRRR taketh from RDU, it giveth to ... west central Florida!

Light Kuchera accums from Pasco all the way down to Sarasota County, including Hillsborough and Polk.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Well this looks a lot like the 18Z HRRR

 

[jjwxman]

Looks like RAH is not buying what the HRRR is selling. New update on Warning Statement has increased up to 5-8" around the Triad. This morning's statement was 4-7". This is going to be very interesting.

 

[Parker]

Getting the lightest of flurries at 2700 feet outside of Gatlinburg.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[jackendrickwx]

guess you could say we're underway with moderate snow on Beech Mtn

 

[ChattaVOL]

Getting the lightest of flurries at 2700 feet outside of Gatlinburg.

MRX just updated totals for Gburg.. 12 inches with possible 16 inches

 

[SnowNiner]

What’s everyone’s thoughts about Norfolk VA? Traveling there tonight to catch a cruise. According to many models there’s not much precip there. But looking at WPC and the blend of models it’s a great storm there. Trying to plan for the family trip tonight, but can’t get a consensus.

 

[Mpirone12]

Serious question, does the NWS have a lot of different models and equipment not accessible to everyone else? They were first to have warning shots last week and now they keep doubling down in the triad


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[Packsox03]

Looks like RAH is not buying what the HRRR is selling. New update on Warning Statement has increased up to 5-8" around the Triad. This morning's statement was 4-7". This is going to be very interesting.

As good as the HRRR was last night, we knew it was the long range HRRR. Generally not great after 12-18 hours

 

[rburrel2]

18z 3km NAM looks like an absolute explosion is about to happen over the upstate at hr 12... whoa. Way more neg. tilt on the trough. Should be good for NC too I think.