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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

FallsLake said:
I do like the 12z GEFS. It looks like the best output to benefit the most on this board. Of course it's not the best model for some, but again a great compromise.

10:1 ratios:
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Icon, canadian,fv3 line up perfect with it. Whole bunch been in lock step since 0z last night
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think you’re in a great spot. Spartanburg to Charlotte imho is going to feast on the mesolow to the SW, the slowing warm front to your east, and the heavy, efficient banding pivoting over you
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My brain agrees with you, but since I began following wx with Dec 2018 I have not been present in the Burg for a snow greater than 1 inch. You'll excuse me for being a little snakebit

In order to make this post relevant, here's some widespread 20-30mph gusts during the storm from the RGEM
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I just came to the realization that every single county, all 146 of them, in North and South Carolina are under a Winter Storm Warning presently. Has this ever happened? Getting all 100 NC counties warned is hard enough (I can only think of a couple times where that might've happened, and I'm not even sure it did then).

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superjames1992 said:
I just came to the realization that every single county, all 146 of them, in North and South Carolina are under a Winter Storm Warning presently. Has this ever happened? Getting all 100 counties warned is hard enough.
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we have a chance to get an inch of snow or more on every single piece of ground in both states
 
superjames1992 said:
I just came to the realization that every single county, all 146 of them, in North and South Carolina are under a Winter Storm Warning presently. Has this ever happened? Getting all 100 NC counties warned is hard enough.

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January 1988 I believe. If not, this will be a first in my memory.
 
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Final Call:

For my neck of the woods, I've said it for a few days but models are agreeing with me now between Globals and Meso that along highway 25 in Greenville county east towards CLT metro is sitting absolutely golden right now for minimum 6" but I expect many areas to be pushing the 10" mark on average with locally spots getting over a foot. I still can't make a definitive call towards GSO and RDU. I like the WAA I am seeing on models, but there's likely going to be a dry slot somewhere. I don't think it'll be as extreme as some in previous storms, but it makes sense with the switching from the ULL to the coastal. The coastal is the other wild card for me as well. It's all dependent on where that surface low forms. CAE is finally going to get a meaningful storm. I think 4" minimum on the south side of town towards Swansea, Gaston, and Eastover. 6-8" easily on the north side of the metro from Newberry, Irmo, Blythewood, Camden, Winnsboro. I even like the northside of Charleston to get in on at least 2-5". with 1-3" in downtown.
 
jackendrickwx said:
we have a chance to get an inch of snow or more on every single piece of ground in both states
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It looks like the only time that has ever happened on record was the February 1899 Great Blizzard, which ironically enough included accumulating Gulf Effect snow in Tampa. The closest that I could find since then was March 1980 when extreme southern SC low country got a trace to a dusting.
 
superjames1992 said:
Even that one was pretty paltry on the direct coastal regions for NC (not that they might've not gotten a Winter Storm Warning still):

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Big ice storm/mixed precip south of the heavy snow. The Arctic front actually was draped to the Gulf Coast. I don't think at the time there were specific ice storm warnings used in 1988.
 
Stormsfury said:
Big ice storm/mixed precip south of the heavy snow. The Arctic front actually was draped to the Gulf Coast. I don't think at the time there were specific ice storm warnings used in 1988.
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Ah, that's right. It was a little before my time (I wasn't born until a few years later, hah!). I guess the question mark would be the OBX since you'd think they may stay too warm at the surface for an ice storm if they aren't snowing, but perhaps not!
 
NCSNOW said:
Icon, canadian,fv3 line up perfect with it. Whole bunch been in lock step since 0z last night
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xshare said:
It's funny because these kinds of comments are so location specific. For ATL, Canadian is totally different than Icon for example (and NAM/HRRR).
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It does help to be more specific or at least just say “for my area” or even just “here” if it’s just for near one’s area. Unfortunately, there are a lot of posts from various posters like this. As one living well south of almost every very active member here, I probably can empathize better than most because how it looks here is very often totally different from any of NC, N GA, N SC, AL, etc. So, out of respect for the many others who are not near one’s location, I think it’s best to specify, which I normally do, myself, though nobody’s perfect.
 
NCSNOW said:
Final Call. Watch hwy 49 corridor and northern, central coastal plain for exceeding expectations.
Said it 2 days ago. Snow hill has its town name for a reason. See Downeast talking about as well. Thats my pick for the max lollipop. Enjoy, long overdue

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I like how you curved that 7 - 12 around my house there, and made sure you left me in the 3 - 6 appreciate that pal. lol


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BIG FROSTY said:
I like how you curved that 7 - 12 around my house there, and made sure you left me in the 3 - 6 appreciate that pal. lol


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I would have covered you if I was paying attn. seriously see 5-10 from the escarpment to coastal plain. better shot at 10 further east you go. Then its game on out there. everyone should ring out every morsel of moisture there is , with column so cold. Trick is finding any lifting mechanism. small or large, doesn't matter and it will do the trick. I gotta head up your way this spring/ summer a lot, family stuff. We need to get powerstroke and others , to tee it up
 
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