WEATHERBOYROY
Member
That's much better and includes most of the board. Your still showing ove 8-10 inches at 20-1 ratios......don't be selfish
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
Thank you! I didnāt realize that.
broken025
Member
That line of snow going north to south in Georgia is wild.
Makeitsnow
Member
That precip band over ga is crazy. It has liquid totals approaching an inch in the heart of it. Obviously that would equal over a foot lol
Eric, Do these things tend to move or migrate or do they just set up over a section and dump?
Brads latest vlog says 1-2ā/hr rates for clt at times with drifting snow, seems to be upping totals bc of the ull track.
Downeastnc
Member
A really might be better 20 miles SW from here at the little town of Snow Hill. I am to jaded to believe it just yet though these hi res models have me hoping for 12-18 if it all goes just right.
NCWeatherNow
Member
This is likely gonna be my final call snowfall forecast for the Region.
A wide area of at least 2-4 inches is likely in northern NC, with more to the south.
Gonna be fun to track this.
A wide area of at least 2-4 inches is likely in northern NC, with more to the south.
Gonna be fun to track this.
Tokenfreak
Member
This is the latest forecast form Chris Jackson for SC
Makeitsnow
Member
watching the models for starting precip early over ne ga/upstate. hrrr has been increasing precip shortly after midnight around athens heading up into the upstate. will be curious if this continues.
dsaur
Member
Any ground truth, or is it virga?
rburrel2
Member
Sheās coiling up better/tighter on the latest hrrr. Love to see it.
NBAcentel
Member
That is what resulted in the monster RAP run. Pretty sure the 18z HRRR is gonna be a banger
Tsappfrog20
Member
Dad of Weather_Freak
Member
Near Gadsden. Cloudy, no precipitation and surface temp = 39 F.
rburrel2
Member
Definitely better for the upstate to charlotte with the ull precip. Probably better for eastern NC too but thereās some other stuff at play there.
12z AIFS is pretty good. With ratios, this is 5"+ for almost all of NC...This is a much better run than 06z in general (doubled MBY's totals). Of course, 18z will probably be worse since this model has been jumping around big time with QPF. I noticed it really mutes the initial band that comes into N NC on some of the other modeling, which is a little weird.
NCWeatherNow
Member
Virga now around 9-10 kft off the ground in the Triad area.
12z AIFS trend, you can see how it takes us back from the brink of the last couple runs. Still not quite as good as a couple yesterday.
packfan98
Moderator
12z euro is better than 6z. Iām in the dryslot this run but I like the overall look much better.
Dunkman
Member
BrickTamland
Member
iGRXY
Member
EURO rock steady
Well then, back and freaking forward we go lol
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Western upstate continues to be modeled in a dryer area but overall good trends for a lot of folks. Some people in the eastern upstate are going to get a foot plus.
I am Charlie Brown sprinting towards the football currently
I do like the 12z GEFS. It looks like the best output to benefit the most on this board. Of course it's not the best model for some, but again a great compromise.
10:1 ratios:
10:1 ratios:
Oughta be brisk either way sunday am. Wind chills not temps
rburrel2
Member
I've plotted every model qpf output for Clemson for a few days now... the mean has went up about .05 since yesterday afternoon which is a good sign.
For the 12z runs: The worst model is at .19(Hrrr) and the best model is at .46(Nam 3k). The mean is .312
As such I'm expecting about 1/3rd of inch of liquid here and expect ratio's to conservatively be around 15:1 yielding about 4.5 inches of snow.
I'd say a floor is 3 inches and the ceiling is around 7 inches.
(Note that Clemson/My area is a relative minima on qpf across several models so most of the upstate is in better shape than this).
For the 12z runs: The worst model is at .19(Hrrr) and the best model is at .46(Nam 3k). The mean is .312
As such I'm expecting about 1/3rd of inch of liquid here and expect ratio's to conservatively be around 15:1 yielding about 4.5 inches of snow.
I'd say a floor is 3 inches and the ceiling is around 7 inches.
(Note that Clemson/My area is a relative minima on qpf across several models so most of the upstate is in better shape than this).
Final Call. Watch hwy 49 corridor and northern, central coastal plain for exceeding expectations.
Said it 2 days ago. Snow hill has its town name for a reason. See Downeast talking about as well. Thats my pick for the max lollipop. Enjoy, long overdue
Said it 2 days ago. Snow hill has its town name for a reason. See Downeast talking about as well. Thats my pick for the max lollipop. Enjoy, long overdue
Youāre in one of my favorite spots up there. Would love to see some pics once it gets going
12z EPS has Orlando at 25F Sunday morning. Asheville at 4F
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think youāre in a great spot. Spartanburg to Charlotte imho is going to feast on the mesolow to the SW, the slowing warm front to your east, and the heavy, efficient banding pivoting over you
The front end thump will be crucial to those who will be victimized by the dry slot wherever it forms. If it forms out further out towards the western part of NC/SC then chances are better that they will get more snow from the front end thump than if it forms in eastern areas due to the timing of the transfer from the upper level low to the coastal low.