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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

FallsLake said:
Question / analysis:
So we should be close to "go time", how's the important features moving / developing at this time. Examples; is there current signs the coastal low will develop and then move closer to the coast, is the ULL separating more or stronger or south/north, and I any other features affecting the setup.

That stuff is out of my knowledge range..
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^^ This ^^ I think it would also be a learning experience for a lot of us.
 
Catfish said:
That was a surprise after getting the WWA earlier now upgraded to WSW. Will be interested to see FFC video briefing today. But nobody is taking this one seriously around ATL. Probably a result of last weekend being so hyped and then not much for ATL. Really tough job being a winter forecaster in this area. FFC does a great job though! It’s up to the public whether they want to listen.
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FFC has certainly drawn the short stick in the SE region so far. The 2 nearly impossible winter weather scenarios for this area hit them on back to back weeks. Ice storm and ULL setups are the worst for NE Ga to forecast.
 
Yeah, I think FFC is doing this not so much because a ton of snow is being forecast, but because they remember the crippling chaos in 2014. I seem to recall some commentary that they reserve the right to issue a WSW if the impact of the weather could be severe, even if the accumulations fall below typical criteria for a WSW. In this case, it's going to be really cold, and the snow is going to stick to the roads, hopefully not like 2014, but possibly.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Gfs looks awful 😞
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Not for everyone...
snku_acc-imp.us_ma.png
 
I only get about 8" here with that run lol...nice to see some of the recent models reversing the overnight trends with that ULL. I can't wait to see where the coastal starts forming. This could be a really special storm for a lot of people.
 
Rain Cold said:
I only get about 8" here with that run lol...nice to see some of the recent models reversing the overnight trends with that ULL. I can't wait to see where the coastal starts forming. This could be a really special storm for a lot of people.
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So I am still learning, but can you give me like an overview as to where the models are saying the low will be forming?


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Sctvman said:
Braves Fest is cancelled
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Had multiple fellow A-List members reach out to me yesterday, which gave me a chance to inform them and urge them to pay attention and prepare. I talked to my ticket rep and told him the way the forecast was trending, I wasn’t planning on attending. Hate it, but they had no choice but to cancel it.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Can’t lie it’s coming down way harder than I thought it would, roads starting to get slick again.
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Its snowing light to moderately but the sun is trying to peak through, shows the first tongue of snowfall is mostly based in the lower to mid levels
 
packfan98 said:
2 more model cycles to go. 2 more northern ticks you think?
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I hope...but I can't tell you how annoying that 50/50 has been...the one time in our lifetimes it's just refuses to lift out just a little. Could have made all the difference....

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1769774400-1769893200-1769893200-20.gif


AI-GFS/Google - now on top of each other. A broad swath of 3-6" across the Carolinas is coming...now who jackpots and gets 8-10" is still debatable. But my money is on the CLT area and the Greenville, NC area. And of course...who dryslots...some small area is going to get 1-2" between I-77 and I-95 with the dryslot/precip min.

Google-GFSAI.gif
 
KyloG said:
I hope...but I can't tell you how annoying that 50/50 has been...the one time in our lifetimes it's just refuses to lift out just a little. Could have made all the difference....

View attachment 191822


AI-GFS/Google - now on top of each other. A broad swath of 3-6" across the Carolinas is coming...now who jackpots and gets 8-10" is still debatable. But my money is on the CLT area and the Greenville, NC area. And of course...who dryslots...some small area is going to get 1-2" between I-77 and I-95 with the dryslot/precip min.

View attachment 191823
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That’d be Concord in the dry slot. I promise!! You can all relax now..
 
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SnowQueen said:
That’d be Concord in the dry slot. I promise!! You can all relax now..
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No model is showing a dryslot in Concord...thats one thing you don't have to worry about. If I could be anywhere in this even it would be PGV first and then CLT metro 2nd. CLT metro might not jackpot but it will be 4-6" easy.
 
Not to get ahead of the storm, but we’ve ticked down our forecast low Monday morning all the way to 6 degrees. Not record territory but some of the traditional cold sinks in eastern NC and SC might have a shot at the big goose egg. Last 0 reading in these parts was 2018 on an unofficial station.
 
KyloG said:
The 4 12z OPs, so far, roughly inline...AI-GFS/GFS/ICON/CMC

All show that PGV jackpot zone...they are best chance to get 10"+. If you wanted to chase....

View attachment 191832
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So far, the ICON was the furthest north with the ULL vs the other physics/AIGFS. Starting to get a good consensus average and a better idea where generalized QPF expectations should be.
 
beanskip said:
I know everybody is bust-conscious -- but don't forget that there is big upside to this one as well.

And as I type that, the 12 GFS closes off the upper low over Tennessee at 24 hours.
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I personally never believed a column like this and antecedent conditions were ever possible here
 
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