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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

By the way, we've got another big retrograding Greenland block showing up around Valentine's Day in the Fab Feb thread (repeating pattern @NCSNOW)....my kind of love!

Pattern - Fab Feb

Euro with more snow late next week. Think ima wave the white flag and sit that one out Y’all know that’s a lie
southernwx.com
 
0da5a0a7cd27af5dc791b3a073d926df.jpg

Another data mission was completed earlier this evening to help with the moisture profiles in the 00z model suite per Jeremy DeHart.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Sctvman said:
Eerie how similar the models have been on CHS last 2-3 days. About 2", maybe a little more or less. But the rest of the Carolinas are far, far from it. Hope we can all cash in
Click to expand...
The further east/north with the upper low are doing this, the further south/west models aren't and filling in Charleston a bit better. Even got a 4.4 in Charleston proper on one of 00z runs.
 
So with some like the euro op the data inputs gave a good precip increase but the aifs did the opposite and took a rather large jump towards a dryer solution. Wonder why
 
WSW for CHS metro. 3-5” expected

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1250 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

SCZ044-045-050-052-301400-
/O.UPG.KCHS.WS.A.0001.260131T1200Z-260201T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCHS.WS.W.0001.260131T1200Z-260201T1800Z/
Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-Charleston-Tidal Berkeley-
Including the cities of Saint George, Moncks Corner, North
Charleston, Goose Creek, Mount Pleasant, Charleston, Daniel Island,
and Summerville
1250 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
5 inches.

* WHERE...Charleston, Dorchester, Inland Berkeley, and Tidal Berkeley
Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the
state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 
superjames1992 said:
Do you know if these use 10:1 ratios?

Also, Moyock jackpot. 👀
Click to expand...

That I’m not sure about. I will say from experience using it that it tends to be a lot better overall at most things than the current version of the nbm. Far from perfect still but it’s a pretty good step up
 
What's the mechanism behind the windward side of Smokies, Roan Mts, associated ranges having such high accumulations? I'll try my shot at it: Is it orthographic lift helped on by this wild TPV putting the squeeze on. I could imagine with the tropopause being so low forcing is esp maximized along the ridgelines. Looking at the current pw on the spc meso maps i'm seeing what i would think of as return flow from the gulf making its way into LA\AR another moisture source independent of the Atlantic moisture that the Carolinas is tapping into.

Just having thoughts over here as this is slowly ramping up and wondering if Mars Hill, NC will be in a snow shadow.
 
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Columbia SC
122 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

SCZ016-020>022-026>029-031-037-038-115-116-310630-
/O.UPG.KCAE.WS.A.0002.260131T0000Z-260201T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCAE.WS.W.0001.260131T0300Z-260201T1500Z/
Chesterfield-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-
Lee-Sumter-Calhoun-Clarendon-Northern Lancaster-Southern
Lancaster-
Including the cities of Cayce, Carolina Commons Shopping Center,
Saluda, Lexington, West Columbia, Lancaster Mill, Lugoff, Cheraw,
Winnsboro, Oak Grove, Andrew Jackson State Park, Manning, Van
Wyck, Summerton, Springdale, Indian Land, Pageland, Elgin,
Community of Almond Glen, St. Matthews, Sumter, Lancaster,
Bishopville, Seven Oaks, Columbia, Winnsboro Mills, Ridge Spring,
Camden, Newberry, Batesburg-Leesville, and Red Bank
122 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
8 inches. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of central South Carolina.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
142 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-301600-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0002.260130T2100Z-260201T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KGSP.WS.W.0001.260130T2100Z-260201T1200Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater
Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-
Union-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central
Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern
Spartanburg-
Including the cities of Indian Trail, Greenville, Spartanburg,
Taylors, Charlotte, Cornelia, Gumlog, Berea, Hartwell, Baldwin,
Boiling Springs Sc, Great Falls, Middleton, Huntersville,
Valdese, Shelby, Stony Point, Toccoa, Boydville, Wellford,
Royston, Easley, Ninety Six, Gastonia, Fork Church, Catawba,
Hollywood, Tryon, Rutherfordton, Advance, Abbeville, Rocky
Bottom, Nebo, Kings Creek, Mooresville, Forest City, Lyman, Mill
Spring, Fero, Weddington, Mountain Rest, Rock Hill, Laurens,
Demorest, Dysartsville, Monroe, Simpsonville, Trinity, Inman,
Walhalla, Franklin Springs, Cornwell, Kings Mountain, Bethlehem,
Pleasant Grove, Ruckersville, Calhoun Falls, Chester,
Fingerville, Ware Shoals, Mauldin, Reed Creek, Ellendale, Lenoir,
Gaffney, Concord, Greer, Salisbury, Granite Falls, Fortsonia,
Columbus, Millersville, Fountain Inn, Farmington, Fork Shoals,
Lincolnton, Landrum, Union, Taylorsville, Oakway, Duncan,
Lavonia, Mocksville, Clinton, Statesville, Canon, Matthews,
Clayton, Elberton, Kannapolis, Marion, St. Stephens, Hickory,
Pine Mountain, Glassy Mountain, Monarch Mills, Blackstock,
Glenwood, Seneca, Westminster, Crouse, Anderson, Clemson,
Sawmills, Dacusville, Morganton, Newton, Spindale, Hiddenite,
Clarkesville, Nuberg, and Mountain City
142 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Northeast Georgia, the foothills and Piedmont of North
Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may
produce isolated power outages due to the weight of the snow on
tree limbs and power lines. The hazardous conditions could impact
the Friday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to rapidly stick to roads
and other surfaces due to temperatures in the 20s. Travel
conditions could deteriorate rapidly as early as Friday evening.
Very gusty winds on Saturday could result in areas of blowing
snow, causing very poor visibility.
 
In various Warnings products and discussions, I keep on reading about the weight of heavy snow resulting in power outages. Won't this be a high-ratio, dry snow that won't stick to branches and elevated surfaces as much, but will blow off instead?
 

Issued By​

Raleigh/Durham - NC, US, National Weather Service

Affected Area​

The Piedmont and western Sandhills

Description​

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches. Localized areas of significant snow amounts will be possible.
WHERE...The Piedmont and western Sandhills.
WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday.
IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult or even impossible at times Saturday into Sunday.
 
Some notable changes occuring on the HRRR. The base of the vort extending out more but not becoming stringy, but rather becoming more loaded, which could favor a better tilt and cutoff. the roll-over ridge above it under-modeled, and the western ridge being undermodeled. This 06z run could be legit for many areas IMG_3719.gif
 
NBAcentel said:
Some notable changes occuring on the HRRR. The base of the vort extending out more but not becoming stringy, but rather becoming more loaded, which could favor a better tilt and cutoff. the roll-over ridge above it under-modeled, and the western ridge being undermodeled. This 06z run could be legit for many areas View attachment 191611
Click to expand...
To add on to this, you can see how it’s trended to detaching that nasty vort tail in SD/ND quicker, along with the westward shifts and initially better tilt. Small details here that go a long way IMG_3722.gif
 
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