mx3gsr92
Member
I'll go! Only a 40 minute drive.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
And Ukmet back to this crap
Also, there will most certainly be some thunder snow in the strongest bands that set up. Going to be something fun to behold.
Bad model
NBAcentel
Member
Oh my, the WAA is cranking here and cranking heavy snow but not cranking enough WAA to sleet us. Rare stuff
I think there's potential for some thundersnow west and east. Should be really dynamic as the upper teardrop wave bottoms out in the trough and starts to work east (for western to central Carolinas)....and then interacts with rapidly strengthening coastal low (eastern Carolinas)
John1122
Member
It has all 50 ens members. But for some reason they used euro date two model cycles old for it. They used hour 60 euro ens data for their hr 42 6 hour snowfall forecast. All other data was more recent than the Euro ens they used. After learning that, it makes sense why it felt so far behind the curve last storm.
NBAcentel
Member
Honestly this might be the outcome. Aligns very well with my forecast
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That’s the best gif I’ve seen all day, very nice trend with the elevated warm front and increased snowfall over NC
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Sctvman
Member
Eerie how similar the models have been on CHS last 2-3 days. About 2", maybe a little more or less. But the rest of the Carolinas are far, far from it. Hope we can all cash in
That's an interesting trend. It's kind of like the model is sensing more and more the strong and cold upper wave dropping in and the response is tightening temperature gradients and rising motion.
albertwilsonjr
Member
Makeitsnow
Member
I was looking at the mean on DESI and it shows around 19:1 at my local for most of the precip....amazing.
Precipitation comes from rising motion and moisture, so it's good....upstate may not be in the bullseye there, but it's a good thing there too
Mahomeless
Member
I’m about 30 miles outside of Gatlinburg now. I plan to head up to Newfound Gap in the morning to watch this beast roll in!
The Parkway is going to end up shut down imo.
Can anyone share Charlotte, NC snow ratios?
By the way, we've got another big retrograding Greenland block showing up around Valentine's Day in the Fab Feb thread (repeating pattern @NCSNOW)....my kind of love!
Pattern - Fab Feb
Euro with more snow late next week. Think ima wave the white flag and sit that one out Y’all know that’s a lie
southernwx.com
BrickTamland
Member
Is it just me or does it seem the models are trending back to the big dogs they had a couple of days ago?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Another data mission was completed earlier this evening to help with the moisture profiles in the 00z model suite per Jeremy DeHart.
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Jglover004
Member
My recommendation would be set up camp in Townsend. Cool little town and easy access of main highway 321. Right next to the entrance of the Smokies
Stormsfury
Member
The further east/north with the upper low are doing this, the further south/west models aren't and filling in Charleston a bit better. Even got a 4.4 in Charleston proper on one of 00z runs.
GEFS backed off on totals compared to the last 3 runs. I don’t have a clean trend loop but here’s the link.
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/
Looks pretty good; I assume that's 10:1, too?
nope, actually 10:1! i dont have access to kuchera for GEFS
Euro is more moist. Going to be a banger run. I like my forecast.
mx3gsr92
Member
And is it still snowing?
Weatherheels
Member
Meanwhile, the 00z AI Euro got worse at 00z (note this is with 10:1 ratios). The two Euro models are Jekyll and Hyde!
View attachment C4A61479-87BA-4EC7-8D5A-B9A20ED2D8E6.mp4
Deterministic euro has been trending away from an ATL hammer
View attachment C4A61479-87BA-4EC7-8D5A-B9A20ED2D8E6.mp4
Deterministic euro has been trending away from an ATL hammer
View attachment C4A61479-87BA-4EC7-8D5A-B9A20ED2D8E6.mp4
Of course it did. As I said after the 18z run, 6z 18z good/ 12z 0z bad. It keeps going back and forth.
So with some like the euro op the data inputs gave a good precip increase but the aifs did the opposite and took a rather large jump towards a dryer solution. Wonder why
Stormsfury
Member
So the EURO is closer to the AI-GFS and the GFS is closer to the AI-EURO.
