It's STILL doing this?! Either this model is on to something, or this model needs some more machine learning.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Many readers will enjoy the 0z GFS kuch
Packsox03
Member
Everyone NE of I 26 and N of I 20 with 6”+. Would love it
Cary_Snow95
Member
AIGFS increased precip over central nc
Truly a Carolina Crusher here. This would please so many folks across the board.
ducketta27
Member
So, weird.... but the Kuchera value for Augusta is actually lower than the 10:1 ratio here... 10:1 shows 2.7 for AGS while Kuchera is half an inch less... shouldn't ratios be higher for this event (even in AGS)?
mx3gsr92
Member
The NW trend a day out never fails.
Gfs,FV3 and Icon in lock step
GFS on WBell
Once again, the GFS is further NE with the 500MB UUL as it's about to enter Georgia. Note the tilt is better on the AIGFS, too. It will be interesting to see which is right.
AI GFS Snow on SV (10:1)
John1122
Member
You can go to the NBM Dashboard, select the NBM run for version 4.3, select the parameter, and hour, and it tells you the models used in it. Them not using the Euro Op but using the GFS op is wild to me. As is using the oldest data from the Euro ens out of every model.
CMC a good hit too, good trends at 0z tonight that's for sure. Now can we hold them through go time
That is so much better to the eyes than pivotal.
Heavy axis rides right down the median of i95 from pedros (SOB) to the rest area on va/nc line
Cary_Snow95
Member
00z CMC
Completely agree with this. Simply because I still don’t understand. I’m a slow learner. Thank you, for posting as some are able to discern the fantastic information you provide. Can’t thank you and many others enough. Mean that very sincerely.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
This would be full-blown blizzard in the Outer Banks.
My first and only call map. Very not professional looking but my general thoughts. Dry slots are a thing but I think with all the dynamics at play plus great snow ratios the lower end who busts still get a few inches of snow.
I think Raleigh and Charlotte are golden and will each pick up their own maximum amount of snowfall. Then in those spots there will be an area that can get 10+ inches of snow. Those dotted areas can of course shift anywhere in those zones depending on where banding develops.
Let’s see how I do!
(This is NC only I didn’t give much thought to areas outside but I suppose anywhere outside of zone 1 will more than likely see 1-3)
I think Raleigh and Charlotte are golden and will each pick up their own maximum amount of snowfall. Then in those spots there will be an area that can get 10+ inches of snow. Those dotted areas can of course shift anywhere in those zones depending on where banding develops.
Let’s see how I do!
(This is NC only I didn’t give much thought to areas outside but I suppose anywhere outside of zone 1 will more than likely see 1-3)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you can get the elevated warm front to produce before the mesolow cranks up over the upstate and induces surface divergence, that would totally bust my forecast in Raleigh.
Icon GFS FV3 Canadian. All in lock step now
Makeitsnow
Member
final would be a minimum of 6 inches across ne ga. would be 3 to as much as 5 on the east side of atl.
The whole model progression has been pretty spectacular in my opinion for the Carolinas. We had some model runs to the SW, some to the NE, and they've converged on us now. And the 50/50 low hanging in and trending some SW was huge. All of that has been great. Now just the fine details.
At the projected ratio (22:1), 0.41" would become 8.8".
FWIW RAP joins the party and goes wild with qpf, it's the RAP so..... but day um
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The elevated warm front just goes ham on the RAP.
Is your list a list of included models? Because if so, it appears to includes numerous Euro ensemble members.
This could be too light but generally I’ve always been high on totals ingesting all the data in. This just has the making, with great dynamics, to be something really special here. Can’t get better ratios for the Carolina’s. Add a coastal and upper low magic? Too many things can go right that can offset a few dry pockets here and there.
Makeitsnow
Member
these ratios are acceptable
Btownheel
Member
LovingGulfLows
Member
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I think it's safe just to use 15:1 ratios so no one leaves themselves disappointed. That's what I've been doing. .1 becomes 1.5. .2 becomes 3.
Btownheel
Member
Gotta have some chasers showing up there....Cantore / Timmer
Their all time record snowfall was 0.2” in January 1977! Interior areas of Miami all got flurries from that same system!