iGRXY
Member
NAM closing off wayyyyyy earlier
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NAM closing off wayyyyyy earlier
BrickTamland
Member
NAM at 33
foothillscrewzone
Member
Someone is gonna get NAMMED this run
Yeah, I am a little puzzled at bumping totals up based on what I am seeing from the models, but they know more than I do.
Packsox03
Member
Great read. Cannot overemphasize how much of a difference a few miles NW will make
iGRXY
Member
Looks too + Tilted to me though
i wonder how much credence they lend to NAM - because the 18z running right now is about to bury the triangle, no dry slotting us this round at allYeah, I am a little puzzled at bumping totals up based on what I am seeing from the models, but they know more than I do.
nam looks a hair worse but should still get the job done
(for yall not for me)
(for yall not for me)
Did they have an early look or expectation here when the latest AFD was written
Truly unreal, plus the large depth of the DGZ. Now to get some stronger vertical motion in there
A lot of times in our typical gulf lows, the DGZ will be way up at 600-500mb lol
BrickTamland
Member
Dunkman
Member
I think those maps have to be auto generated from the NBM. They don’t really align with anything else.
mmm just saw the AFD was released an hour ago -- so timing wise, maybe nvm to what I said. but NWS's 3:14p update to totals holds steady at 9 inches across the triangle. I think this current NAM run might give us something like that
The 18z NAM is about to basically skip over Charlotte. What. Stupid model.
BrickTamland
Member
Yeah, it looks even better than the regular NAM.
NBAcentel
Member
It’s that weird blotch artifact it has, I don’t understand it. 3km doesn’t have it though
BrickTamland
Member
Some heavy rates east of Wake
Charlotte snow shields fully activated through hr 42 on the 18z drunk NAM.
Yeah just some slight differences here lol
iGRXY
Member
The NAM is such a bad model. They cant trash that thing fast enough
This NAM run is better though arguably for most, especially around RAH
BrickTamland
Member
Mpirone12
Member
Been so many model runs today. Isn’t the NAM where everyone freaked out earlier? Ahha
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foothillscrewzone
Member
Leeside screw zone in full effect that run. Yikes.
BrickTamland
Member
3K NAM looks like it could be a big one for NC and parts of SC.
wow
Member
NAM improved with the coastal
NCPROGRAMMER
Member
NAM has been moving the low off the east coast, closer and closer to the NC coast each run.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Don’t pay attention to the 12k NAM. If you’re going to use any NAM product, use the 3k
This contradicts their afternoon discussion where they mention totals of two inches and above with localized amounts of six inches possible over the forecast area. I'm surprised at the totals on their briefing considering most models have been backing off amounts today.Yeah, I am a little puzzled at bumping totals up based on what I am seeing from the models, but they know more than I do.
foothillscrewzone
Member
Yeah it decreased from 12Z too.. No wonder GSP is hesitant to issue WSW
The NAM continues to be the furthest north with the ULL. Sure hope it's wrong for Georgia's sake.
they're issuing one tonight, they already said this
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Uh GSP increased their totals about 2 hours ago. Waiting on warnings because it is supposed to start later than in the mtns. Nothing to do with amounts.
Didn’t someone say the other day that the DGZ would start about the top of the BOA building? This is fairly close
iGRXY
Member
While the 3K NAM looks way better than the reg NAM even it is too dry in the longer range. See last weekend when it was still barely dropping 0.3" of liquid precip over mby
3k Cranking 
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
GSP isn't hesitant to issue it, it's just not quite in range of the WSW yet. They make it very very clear in their AFD that it will be issued.