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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
A lot of people don't seem to quite understand that this system isn't exactly 1 piece of energy. Someone is getting dryslotted. My best guess is between CAE and the CLT region, probably north of Columbia SC. These areas will still receive snow, but may be a little less than the area around. 2 main pieces to this system, a costal low and a separate meso low that develops in the GSP region. Insanely strong meso low i might add.
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I mean.. I think it's been pretty clear in the discussion that we do understand this brother... And I am not sure if I agree with the area you are talking about.
 
iGRXY said:
While the 3K NAM looks way better than the reg NAM even it is too dry in the longer range. See last weekend when it was still barely dropping 0.3" of liquid precip over mby
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It had precip under an inch in Baltimore and we got 2.02 inches of liquid equivalent
 
Mitch West said:
I mean.. I think it's been pretty clear in the discussion that we do understand this brother... And I am not sure if I agree with the area you are talking about.
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I kind of did word that poorly, that's my fault. I meant there's a few people here overreacting about 1 run doing something off, shouldn't have used "A lot" in that situation. Yeah I did some more digging and the dry slot is more about Raleigh from what it looks, I kind of got the regions mistaken
 
rduwx said:
The Bahamas low is keeping the Atlantic low from being further west. You can see it on the loop Jimmy posted above. Rather than riding the coast, it pulls east, which in turn causes the dry slot and bye bye big totals in central NC.
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I hope that Bahamas low will take its vacation somewhere else besides where it is.
 
rburrel2 said:
The nam handling 5h way different than all the ai models/euro etc, I doubt it’s right.
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It's completely latched onto that low 600 miles away like a golden retriever does with its chew toy. The ULL is so far north compared to the consensus. ..

Edit: still ends up diving but it goes negative late AF.
 
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With the ULL and even maybe the coastal, isn’t that going to provide some upslope enhancement on the escarpment and down to GSP area possibly? With flow out of the E/SE??
 
1f07a712bb39fcc9abbe5c8955f43fd0.png

From WRAL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BrickTamland said:
View attachment 191354
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The elevated warm front ahead of the upper trough is really driving the bus on the 12km NAM. Basically all of your heavy snow there SE of Raleigh is co-located with strong 850mb warm advection.

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The 18z RRFS also shows this 850mb warm advection/elevated warm front, but it’s in a slightly different spot than on the NAM. If most of the CAMs can get into agreement on this general idea of strong warm advection ahead of the main upper low and its placement, etc, I might be willing to bite on the aggressive solutions for the Triangle area.


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