ForsythSnow
Moderator
I still bet the FGEN isn't even fully factored in unless theres a reason it's not showing. Maybe that's the explanation for a W trend too is we aren't even seeing a factor show.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
BrickTamland
Member
Crush job for NC. GFS has been mostly consistent showing a big dog here.
Sorry to be that guy but are there any snow total maps for the AI GFS?
Especially for Georgia, the track and tilt of the UUL as it approaches and passes through Georgia is leaps and bounds better on the AIGFS than the GFS. Small differences in this situation have an outsized impact on what happens Saturday.
Atlantans' pull for the new kid on the block, hard. Notably, throught todays runs, it has improved bit by bit to what now would be a nice event for many.
Atlantans' pull for the new kid on the block, hard. Notably, throught todays runs, it has improved bit by bit to what now would be a nice event for many.
packfan98
Moderator
I believe that Storm Vista has them but most of us don’t have access.
blueheronNC
Member
FGEN positioning is *chef's kiss*
MichaelJ
Member
This is just a hunch but I have noticed a subtle shift West for a lot of forecasters in NC because I think they believe a slight NW trend is coming. My guess is they think the ULL is strengthening and pulling the Low off Wilmington more towards the coast. Let's see if this is just a blip at 18Z or a real thing
Unfortunately, not on WeatherBell. I imagine you're curious about Savannah. 850s and 700s are supportive of all-snow, but it looks like BL temps up to 925mb are too warm at the start. I think it would be rain-to-snow, but it's hard to say what the breakdown between the two would be as I don't have very detailed maps.
Tsappfrog20
Member
From Tim Buckley
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I know, I know...but B Rad just"teased" on the WCNC opening. "Those are old graphics, we are going with 3-6 now". (CLT specific)
Now that's a pivot you want to see right there.
Ah yeah that makes sense, figured that massive bump in qpf would come with a catch.
CJ going full weenie already..I know in the back of his mind he thinks 10-12” is doable 
RAH WFO just put out their afternoon brief. Worth a watch!
21z RAP is a nice jump west of last 15z extended run much improved on the F5 keep those trends up please....It was so close to really starting back in AL/GA border and filling in a slight pivot sooner and little further West
packfan98
Moderator
18z UKMET. Better than 12z. I don’t have acces to the Kuchera map.
I heard a couple of Mets mention dry air concerns in DGZ or just above. I'm too tarded to make sense of what consequences that would bring to what falls, but is this a concern for you more educated folk?
that is the snow growth region where flakes form.
but it's going to be so low...
like really really close to the ground compared to normal
i actually can't believe the type of airmass and precip to go with it; it's not normal ever for this south especially
but it's going to be so low...
like really really close to the ground compared to normal
i actually can't believe the type of airmass and precip to go with it; it's not normal ever for this south especially
Cad Wedge NC
Member
The entire atmosphere will be a dendric growth zone. It will be <-10C from the surface throughout the column. Not sure what they would be describing.
Thrasher Fan
Member
Right into Brick's garage. Oh boy.
State battle on the AI’s
chuckhendo
Member
As a Columbia resident, this is the level of disappointment I’m preparing for.
Question - on one of the models earlier I saw some freezing rain or mix - do we really think that’s possible for central SC? I was expecting that temps wouldn’t be a problem for our area?
Sctvman
Member
Tsappfrog20
Member
Xlhunter3
Member
Makeitsnow
Member
One thing about the ukmet is it's been showing that band very predominately in east ga. I just hope i can get under it if it materializes because just outside of it totals will be much less on either side.
no
snow or rain
no inbetween
the snow growth region, when saturated to make snowflakes, will make it all snow
Good point, and why I think the weather services are not backing down from their snow totals based on some drier model runs. This is a very dynamic system which can generate lift in ways that we rarely see in winter storms this far south.
there are going to be zones of 2-4 and then zones of 8-12 all throughout
we have no way of knowing how strong the ull will be or the actual track and how far south
ull are notoriously hard to forecast and models never get it right
then you combine the coastal for eastern nc, which is a whole other set of eggs
all of the snowfall maps should just be used to see the idea of precipitation extent; not the snow amount
the GFS is still doing 25, 26:1 ratios in cae at points. that is basically stupidly unicorn type rare
we have no way of knowing how strong the ull will be or the actual track and how far south
ull are notoriously hard to forecast and models never get it right
then you combine the coastal for eastern nc, which is a whole other set of eggs
all of the snowfall maps should just be used to see the idea of precipitation extent; not the snow amount
the GFS is still doing 25, 26:1 ratios in cae at points. that is basically stupidly unicorn type rare
ducketta27
Member
Again with the snow hole right over Aiken and Augusta… what on earth is this?
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ducketta27
Member
Does anyone have an answer to the snow hole in Aiken and Augusta on all models
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ducketta27
Member
This particular run shows a literal snow hole on my entire county
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
The winds will also kill the ratios. Jmo 12:1 , 13:1 safe bet. Idk if I’d bet the farm on anyone knocking down 20+:1
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packfan98
Moderator
Latest National Blend of models
Flo
Member
Columbia gets nothing on that model either. I’d toss it.
Sctvman
Member
Rob Fowler going 1-4" in metro CHS, 3-6 in Georgetown, and T-2 south.
packfan98
Moderator
Yep. Looks like the AI models. I’m going to try to be happy for the SC crew.
