isn't that the warning for the mountains? I don't see a WS Warning issues for CLT yet
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
With the latest issuings, the entire states of NC and SC are under Winter Storm Watches and Warnings. I can't remember the last time that happened.
Just across these latest runs, we've seen the dreaded dry spot hone in on the Triangle, Roanoke Rapids, Wilmington... and I'm sure I'm missing some spots. It is truly a TBD/Find Out In Live Time!I wonder where the minimum will show up? I bet it will be a surprise. Ha ha!
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NBM SLRs are wild. 20:1, some 22:1
Top +60hrs, bottom +66hrs
We still have about 24hrs for this to be in the CONUS RAOB network, I'd expect with tomorrow's 12z runs we can begin locking in finer details.
12z WeatherNext
Usually I’m a lurker here, but gotta ask, are the NBM snowfall maps based on these ratios or the standard 10:1?
Tsappfrog20
Member
Allan Huffman just sent out his update saying that he is not going to change his map. He says that he uk and Nam do have a real possibility for the triangle but others still show around the range he is using right now. He said he may update after 18z comes out.
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Packsox03
Member
Model Ratios
12z WN Snow
Solid 4-6 should make a lot of people happy.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Probably more than that as it appears that is 10:1 ratio?
foothillscrewzone
Member
at 10-1 ratios
no real changes looks like from last interval
Bigedd09
Member
BrickTamland
Member
But isn't that more like 8 to 12 with the ratios we're expecting?
Previous WN run (06z)
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I'm shocked they went this high this soon, they are normally very conservative. I assume they are weighting the Euro here. I am going to try to keep myself grounded and cut these at least in half in my mind.Wow. NWS GSP bumped their totals up
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Packsox03
Member
Still around 7-8 ish in the triangle. I also agree with the earlier poster that QPF tends to juice up in the last ~36-48 hours after a couple day drying trend
Good point.
foothillscrewzone
Member
It has been oscillating like the Euro between 00Z/12Z and 06Z and 18Z with 6z and 18z wetter
I expect we will juice up some too given the strength of the wave dropping in. Just don’t want to lose the strength / tilt of it
Strong wording for the outer banks
That Bahamas LP needs to disappear.
Definitely a tick drier for the WN2, but it’s pretty good, all things considered.
Downeastnc
Member
Cant say I have seen this maybe ever from MHX
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and
14 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could gust
as high as 50 mph.
IMPACTS...Travel will become impossible and life threatening.
Blowing and drifting snow is likely, particularly in open areas.
Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and
14 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could gust
as high as 50 mph.
IMPACTS...Travel will become impossible and life threatening.
Blowing and drifting snow is likely, particularly in open areas.
Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
Packsox03
Member
The good news is it won’t take much QPF to juice up snow totals. It’s not like we have half our QPF being burnt on mixing or rain and the snow ratios are like 8:1
WeatherNext2 probabilities
Dayum
Gusts at 70 mph? Thats plum wild. And will be insanely fun to watch on live cams if it comes to fruition...
NBAcentel
Member
2nd call… 
Tsappfrog20
Member
Jonathan Wall
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Great snippet on the mesolow from GSP latest disco
Furthermore, guidance has latched onto the development of a mesolow
in the lee of the Southern Appalachians with the mesolow moving
southeast through the Savannah River Valley and into the South
Carolina coastal plain. This would place much of the forecast area
in a very favorable location north of the mesolow and north of the
bowling ball closed upper low. Here, strong forcing for ascent will
be present in conjunction with convergent low-level flow, some
component of which will have a moisture connection to the Atlantic.
This will also foster the development of a notable band of 850mb
frontogenesis across the Upstate and into the North Carolina
Piedmont and portions of the foothills. The result of which has been
a notable southwest trend in QPF with an uptick along the I-85
corridor. Snow will start as early as tomorrow afternoon across the
mountains as upper divergence increases as the TPV encroaches on the
Tennessee Valley.
Furthermore, guidance has latched onto the development of a mesolow
in the lee of the Southern Appalachians with the mesolow moving
southeast through the Savannah River Valley and into the South
Carolina coastal plain. This would place much of the forecast area
in a very favorable location north of the mesolow and north of the
bowling ball closed upper low. Here, strong forcing for ascent will
be present in conjunction with convergent low-level flow, some
component of which will have a moisture connection to the Atlantic.
This will also foster the development of a notable band of 850mb
frontogenesis across the Upstate and into the North Carolina
Piedmont and portions of the foothills. The result of which has been
a notable southwest trend in QPF with an uptick along the I-85
corridor. Snow will start as early as tomorrow afternoon across the
mountains as upper divergence increases as the TPV encroaches on the
Tennessee Valley.
Bro if we get 6” + I will take you out for dinner/supper at your place of choosing.
WN Total Precip
Prior run
Prior run
Packsox03
Member
A west shift would certainly not be the most unprecedented thing ever. Get that TPV in slightly slower so the SS gets ahead a little more as Webb points out
That’s got to be a typo on the winds
I've been paying attention to that 4" probability; looks like that's trending down for the triangle a bit. Still over 50%, but I could certainly envision a local precip min there similar to what the AI GFS has been showing. Love to see the 1" probability being 100% in such a large area though!
DustinWx
Moderator
Mountain warning
I said this earlier about the SREF but I’ll say it again. Never trust it in terms of amount, but typically it’s fairly solid on the footprint of moisture