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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Bigedd09 said:
Wow. NWS GSP bumped their totals up
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I'm shocked they went this high this soon, they are normally very conservative. I assume they are weighting the Euro here. I am going to try to keep myself grounded and cut these at least in half in my mind.
 
Packsox03 said:
Still around 7-8 ish in the triangle. I also agree with the earlier poster that QPF tends to juice up in the last ~36-48 hours after a couple day drying trend
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I expect we will juice up some too given the strength of the wave dropping in. Just don’t want to lose the strength / tilt of it
 
Strong wording for the outer banks

WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations
between 10 and 16 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.
Winds could gust as high as 65 mph.

* WHERE...Mainland Dare and Tyrrell Counties, and Northern Outer
Banks.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
blowing snow. Travel will become impossible and life threatening.
Strong winds could cause tree damage.
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Cant say I have seen this maybe ever from MHX

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and
14 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could gust
as high as 50 mph.

IMPACTS...Travel will become impossible and life threatening.
Blowing and drifting snow is likely, particularly in open areas.
Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
 
griteater said:
I expect we will juice up some too given the strength of the wave dropping in. Just don’t want to lose the strength / tilt of it
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The good news is it won’t take much QPF to juice up snow totals. It’s not like we have half our QPF being burnt on mixing or rain and the snow ratios are like 8:1
 
Dayum

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations
between 9 and 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE...Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
blowing snow. Travel will become impossible and life threatening.
Strong winds could cause tree damage.
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Great snippet on the mesolow from GSP latest disco

Furthermore, guidance has latched onto the development of a mesolow
in the lee of the Southern Appalachians with the mesolow moving
southeast through the Savannah River Valley and into the South
Carolina coastal plain. This would place much of the forecast area
in a very favorable location north of the mesolow and north of the
bowling ball closed upper low. Here, strong forcing for ascent will
be present in conjunction with convergent low-level flow, some
component of which will have a moisture connection to the Atlantic.
This will also foster the development of a notable band of 850mb
frontogenesis across the Upstate and into the North Carolina
Piedmont and portions of the foothills. The result of which has been
a notable southwest trend in QPF with an uptick along the I-85
corridor. Snow will start as early as tomorrow afternoon across the
mountains as upper divergence increases as the TPV encroaches on the
Tennessee Valley.
 
DopplerWx said:
I never in my life thought I’d see this from the nws for charlotte the day before a storm


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.
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That’s got to be a typo on the winds
 
superjames1992 said:
Kind of wild how different the SREFs are from a lot of other modeling, with the highest totals in E / NE NC / SE VA with comparatively little in SC and the CLT area. You'd think it's wrong and it probably is although I suppose climo would favor it to some extent (but climo is just climo and there are plenty of exceptions to it).

WeatherNext should be out soon, right?
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I said this earlier about the SREF but I’ll say it again. Never trust it in terms of amount, but typically it’s fairly solid on the footprint of moisture
 
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