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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Interesting comments in the WPC Heavy Snow discussion:

CIPS Analogs (GFS-based) continue to suggest this storm's
potential ceiling could be exceptional, particularly in the
Carolinas. CIPS is keying in on several past major winter storms
that featured similar 300mb & 500mb evolutions to what the GFS is
showing, just 100-200 miles farther south and east from where those
events unfolded. While the CIPS analogs are analyzing the GFS, the
differences in the GFS versus the ECMWF are not all that different
when it comes to the meteorology involved: powerful closed upper
low, healthy upper-level divergence over a strengthening coastal
front, and tapping into Atlantic moisture revolving around the
closed 700mb low. In summary-- ensembles are beginning to identify
the floor of this winter storm (disruptive winter storm in the
southern Mid-Atlantic) but based on some of the analogs, there is a
potentially more significant-ceiling that could be achieved in the
Carolinas should guidance consolidate on a slower and more intense
winter storm. Given it is 72 hours out, there remains some caution
when it comes to expected snowfall totals.
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Here is the link for the full read:
 
KyloG said:
GEFS solid...kind of winshield wiping the past few runs.

View attachment 190823View attachment 190824
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Look at that minimum showing up more vividly in the foothills. I doubt the Foothills will even go under a winter storm watch we might have advisory level for 1 to 3 inches that’s gonna be my guess, but hey take whatever I can get.
 
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BIG FROSTY said:
Look at that minimum showing up more vividly in the foothills. I doubt the Foothills will even go under a winter storm watch we might have advisory level for 1 to 3 inches that’s gonna be my guess, but hey ake whatever I can get.
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I'd happily take 2-3" in Raleigh...hopefully many of us can get into that range.
 
packfan98 said:
Newest National Blend of Models. Can I cash out now???
View attachment 190828
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It’s so funny seeing these maps knowing Roanoke-Blacksburg will not get anything more than 4 inches. Honestly completely useless to use and yes I’m serious.
 
wow said:
ULL dynamics are quite difficult to forecast. The precip is going to be there with this setup.

Reading Gary Gray's old model summaries leading up to the '96 blizzard, models doubled their QPF predictions in the last 24-48 hrs. Things are going to swing, especially further east.
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North and more. Thanks for hosting those, Jon boy.
 
On the topic of the surface low pressure moving across Florida and into the Bahamas (upper middle image). It looks like to me that those lows are in response to the weakish southern stream waves (upper left image) - the first wave runs across the Deep South and there is a 2nd one moving west to east across the gulf. You can even see a comma head (lower left image) on the surface low coming out of the Bahamas. Then later, as our main upper wave drops in, surface low pressure forms close to the Carolina coast and strengthens as it moves NE. I think that's a realistic look. If we were going to bomb out a lone surface low off the SE coast, we probably would have needed to have a lone southern stream wave that was timed properly and tilted properly for intense phasing, slowing down of the trough, and tilting it negative.

Jan 28 GFS Loop.gif
 
JimBobs said:
This storm has the greatest potential to *UNDERPERFORM* expectations that we've ever seen. All week everyone's been hugging whatever map shows them getting a foot.
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Quote function works quite fine.

Show your work. I’ve stated this is a historically cold column, the ground is frozen and temps will be in the lower 20s to start.
 
griteater said:
On the topic of the surface low pressure moving across Florida and into the Bahamas (upper middle image). It looks like to me that those lows are in response to the weakish southern stream waves (upper left image) - the first wave runs across the Deep South and there is a 2nd one moving west to east across the gulf. You can even see a comma head (lower left image) on the surface low coming out of the Bahamas. Then later, as our main upper wave drops in, surface low pressure forms close to the Carolina coast and strengthens as it moves NE. I think that's a realistic look. If we were going to bomb out a lone surface low off the SE coast, we probably would have needed to have a lone southern stream wave that was timed properly and tilted properly for intense phasing, slowing down of the trough, and tilting it negative.

View attachment 190822
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Very interesting. Can you tell us what we should be rooting for with our shortwave dropping down? I understand the general idea of digging sw and negative tilt. I’ve see some of the energy depicted pretty sharp and other times it’s more round like a bowling ball. What do we need?
 
JimBobs said:
This storm has the greatest potential to *UNDERPERFORM* expectations that we've ever seen. All week everyone's been hugging whatever map shows them getting a foot.
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Posting a map doesn't mean that is said poster's forecast. It's all part of the analysis / interest in the storm
 
JimBobs said:
This storm has the greatest potential to *UNDERPERFORM* expectations that we've ever seen. All week everyone's been hugging whatever map shows them getting a foot.
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Which of the many models that show me getting a foot or more should I hug the most? Euro, GFS, Canadian or NAM?
 
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griteater said:
Just need to keep the dropping wave from going weaker and flatter, and yeah, lot of potential here
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For sure and things can go wrong of course but if we can pull off 50% of what we’ve been seeing, this is the biggest storm since 2018 and maybe for a long time before that.
 
BullCityWx said:
For sure and things can go wrong of course but if we can pull off 50% of what we’ve been seeing, this is the biggest storm since 2018 and maybe for a long time before that.
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I'll never forget, Widre kept going on and on about the storm having this problem and that problem, and it ended up dropping the max amount (12 inches) on top of his house, lol

Jan 28 2018.png
 
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