I think there’s probably some collaboration with other offices on that. GSP mentions that they will hold off on issuing watch until most likely tomorrow morning.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah, I know they are slow with the products. They have been like that for as long as I can remember. They will always be the last forecast office in the area to get out an updated forecast package.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
NWS Blacksburg is always very conservative until about day-ish out. Been in the building before for a shadow and it’s a lot of older guys. They are starting to get some younger people in though.
It's interesting that the Canadian models have a history of performing well in storms like this with an upper wave approaching from the NW. For the Jan 2003 storm, GSP NWS wrote up a short paper that talked about how it performed well in that one. I recall it standing out on a few others like this (upper waves from the NW) in recent years....there was one where we hailed it the new king in here, I remember that lol
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That's good to hear; they have always been ultra-conservative.
Packsox03
Member
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the snow rates on that NW side of the coastal to be much heavier than currently modeled. Those usually have deform bands that produce up to 3 inches of snow per hour
JHS
Member
I would not be shocked at all to see subzero temps over a large part of SC and NC for at least 1, if not 2 nights. I think if we get the snow, the coldest night since 1985 is likely for many of us. Someone in NC is going to get 12-18 inches of snow I think, with at least 2-4 in parts of almost every county in both states.
RGEM gives Mitch 24 hours of snow, lol. Ya boy gonna be eating pizza with pizza for dessert
@Mitch West
@Mitch West
Just a quick question for you guys: why look at those models—the NWS or local mets—but aside from their forecasts, ignore tools like the RGEM, the Navy’s app, and other models you don’t hear mainstream outlets use to make informed decisions?
If we’re trying to imitate other mets and climatologists, why not copy their methods?
Also, wishcasting has been increasing on this thread. I know I’m the new guy and not a daily poster, but there are a lot of lurkers who don’t post, and this is a well-known board in the industry.
If we’re trying to imitate other mets and climatologists, why not copy their methods?
Also, wishcasting has been increasing on this thread. I know I’m the new guy and not a daily poster, but there are a lot of lurkers who don’t post, and this is a well-known board in the industry.
rburrel2
Member
The coastal precip is really hard to predict right now, imo. No consensus. 18z GFS AI doesn't look good out that way.
BrickTamland
Member
GFS has snow in the Triangle by 1 am Saturday. Really cranking at 78.
18z GFS lays down 10"+ for most of the eastern 2/3rds of NC, per Kuchera. Jackpot with 20"+ SW of PGV.
Gfs totals
Chase1983
Member
Can you explain this effect?
I line in Landrum, SC. I mostly lurk l, but I've been within the upstate weather community since Andy Wood was around for Fox Carolina. This Forum as well as AmericanWx gives me insight to the different model runs and maps that I don't have access to within tropical tidbits. So I mostly observe and keep my co-workers and loved ones up to date on the latest possible outcomes. There's so much click-bait on social media that the majority of people here in the upstate refuse to take things seriously when it's pretty much locked in that some sort of winter weather is going to happen.
BrickTamland
Member
Georgia weenies. We Hug the AIGFS and toss the GFS.
No one in here should be trying to imitate anyone. It's up to you the poster to do your own research and hopefully be a contributor in here and not a distraction.
18z GFS follows the going theme regarding trends of the geographic footprint of precipitation
packfan98
Moderator
Much more reasonable, but I do think we are going to see the hi-res modeling do some cool things back west unless we lose our setup.
BrickTamland
Member
That's not the whole total yet.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Good to know because this gives me confidence that ATL will see something. May just book a cabin in Blue Ridge and perhaps see higher totals there
BrickTamland
Member
BrickTamland
Member
GFS and NAM are very similar.
Don't have Kuchera maps for the 18z AIGFS, but I would speculate this translates to 8-12" for CLT, 6-8" for GSO, 4-6" for RDU, 6-8" for GSP, etc. Definitely a different look and not in a good way comparatively speaking for those of us in N/E NC, but it remains within the realm of possibilities...
8-12" for CAE? Not sure if ratios are quite as primed down there, though.
8-12" for CAE? Not sure if ratios are quite as primed down there, though.
LittleMountain
Member
The lee minima is shown too much to ignore. Someone is gonna get a bust in that area
Greed index high in here. I’m going to start trimming my position here. Good luck, boys.
Makeitsnow
Member
the gfs has finally trended back into somewhat agreement with the other models for ne ga though still likely underdone. But that 0.75 in that band over ne ga really shows the potential for who ever is lucky enough to get under it.
I want to say that happened with the Christmas / Boxing Day Storm of 2010, but I'm not 100% sure.
wow
Member
Weaker, less cut off= precip shield not coming NW
rburrel2
Member
Interesting battle here between GFS AI/Euro AI and GFS/CMC/Euro in regards to Eastern NC precip maxima or minima.
Weathernext is a good happy medium I guess. Just feels like it's one of those things that will either go one way or the other and not in-between.
All i'd say is don't have your hopes so high in the triangle that you get disappointed with 4-6 inches. Take that, be happy, and anything extra is just gravy.
Weathernext is a good happy medium I guess. Just feels like it's one of those things that will either go one way or the other and not in-between.
All i'd say is don't have your hopes so high in the triangle that you get disappointed with 4-6 inches. Take that, be happy, and anything extra is just gravy.
Makeitsnow
Member
that's a solid 4 to 7 inches along the border counties in ga and 1 to 4 in the metro verbatim. temps will be in the low to mid 20s initially and fall into the teens as the day goes on in west ga so ratios will be very high in west ga for whatever that falls.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
NWS Raleigh said to expect Winter Storm Watches tomorrow.
Fwiw the UK just jumped on board too
NWG_WX14
Member
UKMET moving closer to the model consensus