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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Look at these gfs totals through next Thursday
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NWMSGuy said:
I think this is a really valid point. Reason I rode the CMC & RGEM with the last event. They seemed to have had a better handle and then when the HRRR was available Memphis started shifting their warnings southeastward.
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How much ice do you guys get and Memphis??
 
DarkKnight said:
How much ice do you guys get and Memphis??
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Probably around 2 tenths at my location. This was a late communication from Memphis last night but I believe fit the overall picture. Rain rates were heavy at times to say the least.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 942 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021/
UPDATE...
Midsouth ice event was underway at midevening. Heavier convective
freezing rain showers moved through the Memphis metro in the early
evening. Latest HRRR runs have cued into an elevated convective
potential evident on the 00Z LZK soundings. This convective
potential has resulted in locally heavier rain rates that will
persist through early Thursday morning - mainly along and south of
the I-40 corridor. Storm total ice accumulations to 3/4 inches
appear possible where these heavier convective showers persist.
 
EMTime said:
I saw some video of that taken by people in the opposing lanes. It was hard to watch. 18 wheelers going at least 50, plowing into wrecked and stopped vehicles
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Definitely tough to see, As have work with EMS I can only imagine what that was like. Vehicles litterly crushed

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If all goes as modeled, this looks to be a major winter storm for the south. An inch will paralyze most towns here, I can't imagine what will happen if the models are correct in those totals.
Looks like my job is about to get busier.
 
EMTime said:
If all goes as modeled, this looks to be a major winter storm for the south. An inch will paralyze most towns here, I can't imagine what will happen if the models are correct in those totals.
Looks like my job is about to get busier.
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Stay safe out there, I've been there and done that

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So if the GFS were right, Dallas gets 4-5" of snow with Monday's system *THEN* 7-8" on top of that with Wednesday's system.

Has Mother Nature mistaken us for Minneapolis?
 
NWMSGuy said:
Wondering when was the last time Memphis saw a 0 degree temp? I imagine it has been a while.
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NWMS that would probably be December 1989, Memphis is certainly due for temps like that, the closest they have come to that would probably been February 1996.
 
Brent said:
-4 in 1989 it appears

1996 only hit 4

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I think Dallas has a better chance to hit that 0 mark than Memphis, Memphis will definitely need a good snow pack laid down, I have lived here my whole life, I have only seen it go below zero twice, I certainly believe it is possible with this air mass but they will need this storm to come a little southeast.
 
GFSv16 depicts Wednesday system would be a devastating ice storm for Dallas, after a not-so-impressive snowfall on Monday.

A worst case scenario would probably be several inches of snow followed by significant ice.
 
SouthATLwx said:
GFSv16 depicts Wednesday system would be a devastating ice storm for Dallas, after a not-so-impressive snowfall on Monday.

A worst case scenario would probably be several inches of snow followed by significant ice.
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Looks snowy to me. The ice seems to stay further to the SE. Still has a widespread 12-16 inches of snow from both events.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Keep in mind, you would be nearly doubling those totals since your ratios will be around 18-20:1 rather than 10:1 so that's more like 6-8 inches of snow accumulation being conservative here.
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It's also the Euro which has been absolutely terrible this week lol
 
Brent said:
It's also the Euro which has been absolutely terrible this week lol
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Euro's been terrible all season. I'm not sure you're going to get the super jacked totals GFS v16 has you getting, but I honestly believe the Dallas area will see double digit total snowfall by the end of Thursday. Personally I think your backyard will see over a foot total.
 
Bsud said:
Definitely tough to see, As have work with EMS I can only imagine what that was like. Vehicles litterly crushed

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They knew storm was coming and just like anywhere they never drive based on conditions. Its sad for sure.
 
The TWC app has not budged on the snow totals for Sunday Night but the temperature forecasts continue to be nothing short of incredible won't find many days as cold as Monday and then Tuesday Night comes...Screenshot_20210212-023626-981.pngScreenshot_20210212-024123-133.pngScreenshot_20210212-024300.png
 
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