Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[SASQUATCH]

ICON keeping West Central AL on the borderline.

 

[tennessee storm]

Based of 12z nam Memphis gets plastered

 

[Stormlover]

 

[NWMSGuy]

Would we be expecting higher snow ratios with the colder air than what is being modeled?

 

[Storm5]

Gfs CRUSHES Memphis


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[Storm5]

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[ChattaVOL]

we are getting some small sleet mixing in here in Chattanooga right now... We are suppose to hit 50 today, but haven't broke 39 yet.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is the first legit trend to a stronger southeast ridge I’ve seen this year

 

[Pup12]

We’re supposed to be at 40 right now but only 33. I know I’m grasping for straws at this point but maybe the warm layers are being overdone. Keep fighting little cold front!

 

[cyclogent]

12z ICON:
warmest temp for Memphis thru 180 hours: 31
coldest temp for Charlotte thru 180 hours: 32

insane pattern




.

 

[Snownut]

As for most east of the Mountains mon/Tues, This is going to be Rain. Doesn't even look like there's going to be much CAD at all. Everything but the ICON is pointing to 40s

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[FamouslyHot]

Yesterday there was some discussion about differences in resolution of the Apps on the models so I thought this cross-section would help demonstrate some difference. Note the mountains are much smoother on the GFS vs 3k nam. You can also see how the 3k NAM picks up on the CAD a bit better. There is a shallow freezing layer east of the mountains that is not present on the GFS. I'm not too sure about the significance of the Theta-e difference between the two. Maybe someone smarter than I am could explain.

 

[Tobiewx]

Would we be expecting higher snow ratios with the colder air than what is being modeled?

I would think probably between 15:1 to 20:1 maybe, closer to 15:1 is what I would expect.

 

[cyclogent]

near zero in Dallas while it's 60s in Greensboro. I have officially seen it all now lol. truly historic pattern

 

[Stormlover]

according to the GFS, 13:1 to 19:1 is the range for memphis snow during the event there

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

near zero in Dallas while it's 60s in Greensboro. I have officially seen it all now lol. truly historic pattern
View attachment 74242

Looks like New Orleans is 40 degrees colder than Greensboro.

 

[Flotown]

according to the GFS, 13:1 to 19:1 is the range for memphis snow during the event there

You think us here in nbama gonna get any sleet and snow or just all zr??

 

[Stormlover]

You think us here in nbama gonna get any sleet and snow or just all zr??

I can hope it's sleet and snow, but GFS says half an inch of ice..and in the shoals, two rounds of 3/10 ice followed by 4/10 ice

 

[SASQUATCH]

CMC holding firm on running that surface low through southern GA.

 

[NWMSGuy]

according to the GFS, 13:1 to 19:1 is the range for memphis snow during the event there

Would that put most close to a foot of snow?

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Crippling snow for AR and West TN per the GFS

 

[ColdCoreLow]

Only the SE could screw up a pattern like this. We suck- that's the bottom line. Normally, I'd say we still have some time to get some winter wx but honestly I think we're done over here. And watch that wedge come back next week to give us another cold rain basically taking away the svr weather threat. And I bet it happens all spring long as well. I wish I could could say every bad name in the dictionary right now. That sums up how I feel about being in the Carolina's.

Disappointing for sure, but let's be happy for those to the west who are getting a once in a lifetime storm.

 

[BHS1975]

ICON now has a cold rain. Surprise surprise.


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[NorthDFWwx]

Lake Effect Snow in Texas!?

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1033 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>134-121830-
Van
Zandt-Rockwall-Somervell-Montague-Dallas-Wise-Kaufman-Hunt-Parker-
Lamar-Denton-Grayson-Johnson-Ellis-Hood-Palo
Pinto-Hopkins-Collin-Rains-Fannin-Jack-Erath-Tarrant-Delta-Cooke-
1033 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...BRIEF MODERATE SNOW NEAR AREA LAKES IN MONTAGUE...NORTHEASTERN
ERATH... HOPKINS...RAINS...LAMAR...PALO PINTO...COLLIN...FANNIN...
ELLIS... DALLAS...HOOD...VAN ZANDT...DENTON...PARKER...DELTA...
ROCKWALL...HUNT...SOMERVELL...KAUFMAN...JOHNSON...WISE...JACK...
TARRANT...COOKE AND GRAYSON COUNTIES...

At 1030 AM CST, there have been multiple reports of localized light
to moderate snow downstream of area lakes. These areas of snow are
usually narrow bands confined to areas near and south of area lakes.
Visibility may be reduced to less than 1 mile in snow for brief
periods of time. These rapidly changing conditions could surprise
drivers. Slow down and drive with extreme caution.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice on roads near lakes. Slow down and allow
extra time when traveling.

LAT...LON 3369 9635 3389 9594 3388 9531 3296 9531
3296 9566 3236 9545 3238 9644 3237 9641
3233 9638 3205 9694 3226 9709 3209 9787
3247 9805 3252 9858 3347 9842 3347 9798
3389 9798 3392 9721 3372 9711 3396 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 180DEG 0KT 3288 9750

$$

Dunn

 

[cd2play]

Crippling snow for AR and West TN per the GFSView attachment 74250

How come Nashville only gets 1”? Is it because of mostly ice?

 

[ATLwxfan]

CMC trying to do something. Not sure what. But something.


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[NorthDFWwx]

Wasn't sure exactly where to post this, but just for my own curiosity, what was Dallas' snowiest season ever?

It'll be crazy to think that record could be broken between 2 consecutive storms in a couple days.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Wasn't sure exactly where to post this, but just for my own curiosity, what was Dallas' snowiest season ever?

It'll be crazy to think that record could be broken between 2 consecutive storms in a couple days.

Snowiest season on record for DFW was 1977-78 with 17.6". A close 2nd was 2009-10 with 17.1".

 

[Storm5]

CMC

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[crecre9]

You think us here in nbama gonna get any sleet and snow or just all zr??

I would say little to no sleet or snow, primarily rain with a bit of freezing rain. Surface is likely to stay too warm.

 

[Stormlover]

CMC

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CMC sleet

 

[EMTime]

My local met seems to think that enough cold air MAY make it in here ( tupelo ) for it to be mostly all snow, and in his words, a whopper of a snow.
I Look for watches to be issued late tomorrow.

 

[Flotown]

Definitely a pattern I hate that Georgia and South Carolina is missing out on. We are truly due for a blockbuster storm. This winter won’t be the winter though


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[Flotown]

to more knowledgeable posters....is this sounding close to snow??

 

[packfan98]

to more knowledgeable posters....is this sounding close to snow??

Yes. Very close

 

[SASQUATCH]

to more knowledgeable posters....is this sounding close to snow??

Very very very close. 10 miles west is prob snow

 

[Brent]

Snowiest season on record for DFW was 1977-78 with 17.6". A close 2nd was 2009-10 with 17.1".

Yeah most of that in 09-10 was the unforecast 11 inches in February

There was another storm that dumped on the suburbs away from the airport especially in March I've heard stories about it here some areas up here where I live had another 6-8 inches

 

[Stormlover]

'Euro continues to be too warm, some 4-8 degrees on the noon temp

 

[Flotown]

Very very very close. 10 miles west is prob snow

Looks like mostly sleet?

 

[SD]

to more knowledgeable posters....is this sounding close to snow??

No moisture in the DGZ; sleet sounding